Here is Ivan’s assessment of the current situation near Chasiv Yar (as published on Twitter on 24JAN).

Operational Overview: Despite recent achievements, the Chasiv Yar Operational Direction has produced minimal progress for the SVRF since the capture of Bakhmut. While under significant pressure, OTU Luhansk(?) still effectively prevents OSV Yug from advancing towards Kostyantynivka, which poses a risk to the defense of OSUV Khortytsia in central Donetsk Oblast. The Siverskyi-Donets Canal continues to act as a significant barrier hindering Russian movements, potentially enhanced by ongoing construction of field fortifications in successive lines to the west of the canal and north of Toretsk. However, since late December 2024, the 98th Guards Airborne Division has achieved notable progress along critical sections of the Siverskyi-Donets Canal and within Chasiv Yar.

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Chasiv Yar Area of Operations: By January 4, 2025, the 98th Guards Airborne Division (Reinforced) established fire control over the logistical routes in the Chasiv Yar region. At the same time, the division secured advancements made in the industrial zone towards the end of 2024 and extended its control into the southern and western neighborhoods. Throughout mid-January, intense Ukrainian resistance, bolstered by resolute ZSU counterattacks and hindered by adverse weather conditions affecting Russian FPVs, led to a series of back-and-forth engagements for dominance over the industrial zone. By January 17, Russian forces had secured control over the majority of the industrial area, although remnants of ZSU resistance remain. Additionally, Russian troops have broadened their presence into the Pivnichnyi and Desyata micro-districts.

Siversky-Donets Canal Line: In early January 2025, a counterattack by the 5th Separate Kyvivska Assault Brigade along the H32 Highway successfully regained positions that were lost in December 2024. The combat operations along the Siversky-Donets Canal line have continued to be of a positional nature, with no updates indicating any shifts in territorial control.

Defense of Toretsk: The 41st Guards Combined Arms Army (OSV TSENTR) has achieved notable advancements within the Toretsk urban area. Following the mobilization of several Russian reserve units in early January 2025, Russian forces could deploy double the number of assault teams in critical micro-districts, facilitating a comprehensive advance along the entire contact line in Toretsk. By mid-January, the ZSU's defense in Toretsk had nearly disintegrated, with only a few regions on the northern and southern peripheries still under Ukrainian control. With the majority of Toretsk secured, Russian forces commenced the expansion of their control westward into the forested region near Mine No. 12, applying pressure on the ZSU defenses in Shcherbynivka. Tomorrow's update will explore this Area of Operations in more detail.

Pokrovsk Update: There is reporting of a 2.5km Russian advance south of Udachne and a sudden Russian assault southwest of Uspenivka, allowing Russian forces to seize part of southern Novooleksandriivka. Fierce fighting was reported in Uspenivka. Russian progress is also claimed south of Sribne. Ukrainian force had success in Nadiivka repelling a Russian assault. These developments continue to pressure a tenuous Ukrainian defense west of the T05-15 Road. These are initial reports; refinement will be provided once confirmed.

Velyka Novosilka Update: Reporting suggests that Ukrainian troops, identified as assigned to the 110th Mechanized Brigade, defending the southern micro-district of Velyka Novosilka, have been cut off and encircled. It is still unclear if these troops are physically cut off or if Russian troops can deny them freedom of movement through heavy fire control of viable routes out of the endangered area. Although these initial reports are yet to be confirmed, they clearly indicate that the Ukrainian defense of Velyka Novosilka is now untenable. A delayed withdrawal is required to prevent the needless loss of lives and equipment that are vital to the effective defense of southern Donetsk Oblast.

This open-source operational summary of the Pokrovsk AO is based on information from the ZSU and VSRF daily operations briefs, various Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels, Western intelligence agencies' public statements, military analysts, and my own professional experience. Any errors in the information and translation presented here are strictly my own, and they will be corrected in the following update.

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