On the Kursk direction, forward units of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Bilovody–Zhuravka direction pushed enemy units north of Bilovody, driving them out of several positions.

The command of the 76th Air Assault Division and the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade overestimated their own capabilities and failed to operate effectively on a broad front.

In the Basivka–Novenke direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces blocked the 106th Airborne Division from advancing toward the heights in the area of Yunakivka. Forward Ukrainian units recaptured several forward positions and observation posts on the southern outskirts of Basivka.

On the Belgorod direction, Russian troops are fighting in Demidovka. Fighting also continued near Popovka. Assault units of the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet advanced between Popovka and Demydivka, pushing forward Ukrainian units toward the border.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked between Popovka and Demidovka, particularly along the international border south of Demidovka.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces conduct rotations and prepare to resume assaults.

On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy, with forces of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army, continued unsuccessful attempts to attack from its bridgehead in the Dvorichna area toward Kindrashivka and Doroshivka. The 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army continues its unsuccessful efforts to expand the flanks of its breakthrough area toward the Oskil River in the area of Kruhlyakivka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed the enemy northward in the area east of the village of Zahryzove.

On the Lyman direction, the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army continues its advance toward Novyi Myr. Its forward units are fighting for Katerynivka and have reached the southern outskirts of Novomykhailivka. On the opposite bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River, forward units of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Combined Arms Army, with active support from the 169th and 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, managed to expand their control zone on the eastern bank of the river south of Yampolivka. Troops of the 25th Combined Arms Army have failed to break into the northern part of Torske and push forward units of Ukrainian Defense Forces toward Zarichne on the western bank of the river.

On the Siversk direction, forward units of the 127th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army continue to entrench themselves on the spoil tips of the chalk quarry in the Bilohorivka area. Troops of the 3rd Combined Arms Army conduct sluggish and ineffective attacks in the area south of Vyimka, attempting to advance northwest along the railway line toward Siversk.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces launched offensives near Chasiv Yar, toward Stupochky, Predtechyne, and near Kurdyumivka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults in the areas of Stupochky and Klishchiivka.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced along Highway H20 Donetsk–Kostyantynivka west of Oleksandropil, attempted to advance east of Oleksandropil and enter Sukha Balka, and launched attacks near Toretsk, Dachne, Dyliivka, Krymske, Leonidivka, Sukha Balka, Oleksandropil, and Valentynivka.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces made minor advances on the southeastern outskirts of Lysivka, attempted to advance east of Zelenе Pole, and launched attacks near Yelyzavetivka, Kalynove, Vodyane Druhe, Stara Mykolaivka, Novooleksandrivka, Serhiivka, Zvirove, and Udachne.

On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Uspenivka, toward Novoserhiyivka, near Preobrazhenka, Troitske, Bohdanivka, Konstyantynopil, Andriivka, Odradne, and advanced south of Bahatyr and near Rozlyv.

On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces advanced east of Dniproenerhiya, northeast of Vesele, attempted to advance east of Shevchenkove, and attacked near Pryvilne, Fedorivka, Burlatske, and Vilne Pole.

Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced to the northern outskirts of Dniproenerhiya.

On the Orikhiv direction, the 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division is fighting for Mali Shcherbaky, and continued advancing near Kamianske, Lobkove, and in Stepove.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Lobkove and are holding positions on the southwestern and northern outskirts of Shcherbaky, as well as on the northern, western, and eastern outskirts of Stepove.

General conclusion:

  • As a result of the redeployment of part of the forces and assets of the Kursk grouping of enemy troops to several other directions, the creation of a buffer zone in Sumy Oblast is being delayed.
  • Most Russian attacks in the Toretsk direction occur in the central and southern parts of Toretsk and toward Druzhba.
  • The operational situation in the Kupyansk direction shows that Russian command has shifted focus away from the flanks and is now resuming offensive actions along the Svatove–Kupyansk road. The 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army is leading the effort, with enemy forces concentrating near Kyslivka, Zatyshne, Nova Tarasivka, and Tabaiivka. The enemy appears ready to launch a frontal assault to push the “Khortytsia” Operational Strategic Grouping (OSG) from their bridgehead east of Kupyansk. This may be a diversion to mislead “Khortytsia’s” command about the real objective and to complicate reserve movements across two directions—against both the 6th Combined Arms Army and the 1st Tank Army. Supporting this, one motorized rifle regiment each from the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army has been redeployed to the Lyman direction.
  • The efforts of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army to advance at any cost in the northwestern direction from the bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River to meet the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army indicate the enemy’s intention to dismantle the defense of the “Khortytsia” OSG in front of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army. The enemy’s command simultaneously attempts to solve several tactical tasks ahead of a breakthrough toward Borova.
  • The shift of the 20th Combined Arms Army’s main strike direction from Lyman to Borova confirms the existence of an operational plan that includes using the Oskil River as a flank cover in a further advance toward Lyman and Sloviansk. This is also confirmed by intense attacks from the bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River in the northwestern direction toward Borova.
  • The main focus of the 3rd Combined Arms Army command is on its left flank (Kramatorsk direction, Chasiv Yar area and northeast of it). The offensive on Siversk from the east, essentially head-on, is a strike in another direction aimed at tying down the “Khortytsia” OSG to prevent their redeployment to the Chasiv Yar area. The sluggishness of the 3rd Combined Arms Army in the center and on the right flank of its operational zone is highly deceptive and may be intended to mislead. It may quickly change once the enemy’s 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies reach the Lyman–Yampil line. In this context, the restructuring of the 3rd Combined Arms Army, which envisions the formation of three assault-oriented divisions instead of the existing six brigades, appears entirely logical and timely.
  • Despite the relative stability of the frontline in the Siversk direction, the most dangerous section appears to be the area of Orikhovo-Vasylivka–Spirne. If the enemy manages to break through to the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River between Yampil and Hryhorivka and simultaneously from the southeast into Siversk, favorable conditions will be created for the further capture of the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration during the summer campaign.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 92 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy twice assaulted Ukrainian Defense Forces positions near Vovchansk and Zakhidne.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the aggressor conducted offensive actions in the areas of Petropavlivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Bohuslavka, and Zahryzove.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked Defense Forces positions 15 times near the settlements of Nadiia, Novoserhiyivka, Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Nove, and toward Olhivka and Zelena Dolyna.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 enemy assaults on the Siversk direction, where the occupiers attempted to advance in the areas of Hryhorivka, Ivano-Dariivka, Vyimka, and Verkhnyokamianske.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy stormed Ukrainian Defense Forces positions 5 times in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, and Stupochky.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced 8 times in the areas of Toretsk and Leonidivka.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, the occupiers attempted to advance on Ukrainian positions 29 times. The enemy attacked in the areas of Oleksandropil, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Preobrazhenka, Troitske, Andriivka, Bohdanivka, and toward Stara Mykolaivka and Serhiivka. Airstrikes targeted Pokrovsk, Dovha Balka, Zoria, Nova Poltavka, Malynivka, Kalynivka, Shevchenko Pershe, and Hrodivka.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy attempted to break through defenses 15 times in the areas of Konstyantynopil, Rozlyv, Bahatyr, and Pryvilne. Two engagements are still ongoing. Enemy aviation conducted airstrikes in the areas of Zelene Pole, Komyshuvakha, Novodarivka, and Verbove.
  • On the Huliaypole direction, Zaliznychne and Huliaypole were hit by airstrikes.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, the aggressor attacked 6 times in the direction of the settlements of Lobkove, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Stepove, and Kamianske. Airstrikes targeted Lukyanivske, Stepnohirsk, and Kamianske.
  • On the Prydniprovske direction, the enemy conducted 3 offensive actions and carried out airstrikes on Kherson.
  • On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 enemy assault actions. In addition, the enemy carried out 19 airstrikes.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.

Supporting operation:

  • Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out a UAV airstrike on the permanent deployment point of the 112th Missile Brigade of the 1st Tank Army in the city of Shuya.
  • Targets in Kursk, Tula, and Ryazan Oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Krai, were also attacked.
  • An ammunition depot in Kursk was hit.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Units of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army operate near Vovchanski Khutory.
  • The 68th Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates near Oleksandropil; the 102nd and 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division are engaged near Shcherbynivka; the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army is active near Toretsk.
  • The 33rd, 242nd, and 255th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operate near Tarasivka; the 80th Separate Assault Battalion “Sparta” of the 51st Combined Arms Army operates near Myroliubivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The plan for the enemy’s spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping through Lyman. Russian forces may attempt to advance near Kupyansk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, or toward the city of Zaporizhzhia. The Pokrovsk direction is viewed by Ukraine’s military-political leadership as the absolute priority for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Additionally, Russian forces intend to create a buffer zone in the north of Sumy Oblast and pose a threat to the city of Sumy in the coming months.
  • In Sumy Oblast, key enemy objectives that could provide stability to a buffer zone may include the heights between Yunakivka and Khrapivshchyna, the wooded area to the northeast of Sumy from Radkivka to Mohrytsya, and the Psel River. Based on this, the enemy’s operational tasks in this direction may include taking control of the area of Bilovody – Loknia – Yunakivka – Yablunivka, seizing at least the eastern part of the wooded area west of Mohrytsya, and reaching the line of Velyka Rybytsya – Myropillya along the Psel River. The enemy may also attempt to break through from the border toward Vorozhba and Bilopillya and cut off the operational lateral route between Sumy and Novhorod-Siverskyi. The implementation of such a plan would require the enemy command to covertly deploy a strike force in the area of Tiotkino.
  • A replacement of the airborne forces and naval infantry units with troops of the 14th and 44th Army Corps is expected soon. The highly mobile component of the Russian Armed Forces will be redeployed to Donbas or to Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces may launch an offensive in the direction of Lyman Pershyi – Horobivka – Tavilzhanka, which, if successful, will lead to either the enemy’s rapid retreat from the Dvorichna bridgehead or its encirclement there. Such a development would result in the loss of combat capability of the entire enemy’s 6th Combined Arms Army.
  • On the Lyman direction, the enemy will attempt to advance toward Karlivka from Nove and toward Drobysheve from Kolodyazi, aiming to reach and establish a foothold along the Karlivka–Shandryholove–Drobysheve line, while simultaneously intensifying the offensive near Torske and advancing on Lyman from the east. Forward units of the 25th Army are expected to attempt a coordinated river crossing over the Chornyi Zherebets near Zarichne in the coming days. Their objective is to secure a foothold on the eastern bank and push into the town. The enemy aims to advance toward Borova’s forward lines and fully dislodge elements of the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Grouping from positions east of the Chornyi Zherebets River.
  • The operational plan of the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kostyantynivka direction is to envelop the tactical group of the “Khortytsia” OSG, which is defending south of Kostyantynivka between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka from the flanks. The enemy aims to encircle and destroy this group or, if unable to do so, force it to withdraw from the area south of Kostyantynivka in a northwestern direction under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate goal of these actions is a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast toward the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka, followed by a simultaneous assault on Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar. After the reaching the Poltavka–Pleshchiivka line, the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army, reinforced by an airborne forces group, will attempt a rapid breakthrough from the bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal in the Chasiv Yar area, advancing from the northeast toward Kostyantynivka.

Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 17.04.25

Personnel – almost 937,440 (+1,230);

Tanks – 10,654 (+16);

Armored combat vehicles – 22,217 (+54);

Artillery systems – 26,442 (+65);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,366 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,135 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 44,642 (+170);

Aircraft – 370 (0);

Helicopters – 335 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 32,925 (+88);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,145 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

  • Citing intelligence data, President Volodymyr Zelensky warns that the aggressor state—Russia—is preparing to launch new strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure both before and after Easter.
  • Since the evening of April 16, Russian forces have struck Ukraine with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, three S-300/400 surface-to-air guided missiles, and 75 Shahed-type strike UAVs and various types of decoy drones. As of 10:00, the downing of 25 strike UAVs has been confirmed. Thirty enemy decoy drones are considered lost (without negative consequences). As a result of the enemy attack, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts were affected.
  • On the evening of April 16, Russian forces carried out a drone attack on Dnipro, killing three people, including a 17-year-old girl, and injuring 33 others, four of whom are children. At least 15 buildings were damaged, including student dormitories, educational institution buildings, and a food production facility.
  • Around 2 a.m., the enemy attacked one of the agricultural enterprises in the Sadivska community of Sumy Oblast with Shahed-type kamikaze drones. A fire broke out. There were no casualties, but agricultural machinery and administrative buildings were damaged.
  • Seventeen people were injured, fires broke out, and multiple houses and cars were damaged in three villages in Izium district and the city of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, as a result of Russian attacks on the evening of April 16.
  • This morning, a DTEK energy company production facility in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was damaged in a drone attack, according to the company’s press service. Buildings and equipment sustained serious damage. No employees were injured.
  • On the morning of April 17, a Russian drone attacked an ambulance in the Dnipro District of Kherson, injuring a 65-year-old paramedic and a 61-year-old driver. Both men suffered blast injuries and shrapnel wounds.
  • Around 10:30, Russian aviation struck the Central District of Kherson, injuring six people, including a 15-year-old child; two people were killed.
  • As a result of artillery shelling by Russian occupiers on the city of Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, two men were killed, and five others were injured, four of whom are in serious condition in the hospital.
  • On April 17 in Donetsk Oblast, between 08:40 and 08:50, the enemy shelled Kostiantynivka using “Smerch” MLRS. A 53-year-old resident near an apartment building sustained fatal injuries. Two women, aged 51 and 72, were also injured. The enemy dropped an aerial bomb, likely a FAB-250 with UMPK, on the village of Rusyn Yar in the Illinivska community. A 60-year-old local man was killed in a private house. Two more civilians suffered blast injuries and shrapnel wounds during the shelling of the village of Novoeconomichne in the Pokrovsk District.
  • In Kherson Oblast, two road service workers were killed due to a Russian drone attack. The attack occurred near the settlement of Stiyke. The enemy UAV struck special equipment during repair work.
  • Russian forces launched a second strike on a critical infrastructure facility in the Hlukhivska community of Sumy Oblast while rescuers were already responding to the aftermath of the previous attack. A fire truck was damaged.
  • On the evening of Thursday, April 17, the Russian army attacked Mykolaiv with an unidentified type of jet-powered drone, causing a fire.
  • Over the past day, the Russians carried out 141 shelling attacks on the border areas of Sumy Oblast. Five houses and a village club were damaged. A total of 257 explosions were recorded.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at [email protected]

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organisation. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – [twitter.com/defence_c...](https://twitter.com/defence_centre) Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – [www.facebook.com/cds.UA](https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA)

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent

Запис Russia’s war on Ukraine. 17.04.25 спершу з'явиться на Центр оборонних стратегій.