As Trump 'loses interest' in Ukraine, Kyiv scrambles to clarify extent of U.S. military aid pause
When the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) halted the transfer of critical air defense missiles and other weapons to Ukraine, Kyiv and its partners were caught off-guard and are now left scrambling for clarity on the scope and length of the Trump administration’s decision.
The White House confirmed the halt after a July 1 report by Politico said shipments were paused due to concerns over the size of domestic stockpiles.
The decision “was made to put America’s interests first following a DOD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said in a statement.
The Pentagon referred to the halt as a “capability review."
U.S. State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce emphasized that the halt was limited in scope. “This is not — I will reinforce this — this is not a cessation of us assisting Ukraine or of providing weapons,” Bruce said, according to media reports.
“This is one event in one situation, and we’ll discuss what else comes up in the future. But be wary of painting too broad a brush there."
But Ukraine, which was not notified of the pause in advance of media reports, responded with alarm at the prospect of a reduction in weapons and the lack of clarity from its partner on when — if at all — shipments could resume.
“They’ve stopped the flow while they find out what (stockpiles) they really have, but it is not yet clear whether this is a valid reason and whether everything will continue,” a source in Ukraine’s President’s Office told the Kyiv Independent.
Also still unclear, said the source, was whether the U.S. will allow Ukraine to purchase Patriot air defense missiles, which President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly expressed a desire to buy.
The Foreign Ministry summoned the acting U.S. Chargé d’Affaires in Ukraine to discuss the matter, and “emphasized that any delay or slowing down in supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities would only encourage the aggressor to continue war and terror, rather than seek peace,” according to a statement from the ministry.
A shift in U.S. priorities
The decision comes as Russia sharply steps up aerial attacks, launching a record-breaking 5,337 drones against Ukraine in the month of June and unleashing some of the war’s deadliest strikes on civilians. Even before the announcement, Kyiv’s stockpiles of critical air defense interceptor missiles were running low.
“Cutting off delivery of missiles for Patriot anti-air systems will mean a weaker air defense system over the country, and as a result, destruction of civilian infrastructure and major casualties among civilians,” a deputy commander in Ukraine’s air defense told the Kyiv Independent.
The move sparked fears of a repeat of events in early March, when the U.S. cut off all military aid to Ukraine after a contentious meeting in the White House between Zelensky and Trump. The freeze was lifted on March 11 following bilateral talks in Saudi Arabia.
Trump ‘losing interest’ in Ukraine
Since the Trump administration took power in January, the U.S. has not agreed to send any new additional weapons packages to Ukraine. However, shipments that were previously greenlit under the Biden administration are still in the queue.
“[Trump] has lost interest in the Ukraine war as there are no quick political gains for him in being involved in a conflict he can’t easily control.”
While March's pause was a result of tensions between Ukraine and the U.S., the latest pause appears to be a result of a change in U.S. priorities as tensions rise in the Middle East and Trump administration officials shift focus away from Russia and Ukraine.
"The president knows he can’t impose a ceasefire on either Russia or Ukraine," Peter Layton, a military expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Given this, he has lost interest in the Ukraine war as there are no quick political gains for him in being involved in a conflict he can’t easily control. The president is now moving on to other agendas."
"I think the resources have instead been flowing to the Middle East and principally to Israel to help in its war with Iran," Layton added.
"Some resources may have bolstered U.S. air and missile defenses at American bases in the Gulf but I think most has been sent to Israel. The U.S. administration seems to have had some warning of Israel’s attack on Iran and moved resources into the Middle East in anticipation."
Neil Quillian, a Middle East expert at Chatham House, agreed that the escalation in the Middle East was a contributing factor to the halt in supplies, as well as waning interest in Ukraine among Trump's advisors.
"The U.S. is resupplying Israel at pace. Another factor will be Washington's limited capacity to manage multiple conflicts at once, given that President Trump depends on so few advisers," Quillian said.
The future of U.S. military aid to Ukraine
The largest question looming for Kyiv is when — and if — deliveries will continue. So far, the Trump administration hasn't clarified what to expect.
"While Trump does not really seem to care what happens to Ukraine, he does crave approval and praise," Jenny Mathers, a lecturer in international politics at the U.K.'s Aberystwyth University, told the Kyiv Independent.
"If U.S. military aid is suspended or withdrawn and the spotlight turns to other countries that step up, he might want to make a dramatic gesture to again become the centre of attention. But ultimately this kind of support is not something that Ukraine can count on."
Layton said he didn't expect the aid to restart "unless there is some dramatic event that leads to the American public turning against the president over Ukraine."
The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir