USA

May 30, 2025 7:58pm

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

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Ben Borges

The U.S. Senate is expected to “start moving” next week on a bill introducing sweeping new sanctions against Russia, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said at a press briefing in Kyiv on May 30 attended by The Kyiv Independent.

The proposed bill would impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products. At least 82 U.S. senators are prepared to vote for the bill, Graham said.

“I would expect next week that the Senate will start moving the sanctions bill," Graham, a vocal supporter of Ukraine and close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, said. “There are House members that are ready to move in the House, and you’ll see congressional action. President Trump said that the next two-week period will be outcome-determined.”

Asked whether Congress would pass the bill before its summer recess and whether Trump would sign it, Graham responded: “I’ve never been more optimistic than I am today."

The senator dismissed the upcoming June 2 Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in Istanbul, where Moscow is expected to present a draft ceasefire memorandum, as unlikely to yield progress.

“I see nothing about the meeting on Monday in Istanbul to give me any hope at all that Russia is interested in peace,” he said. “So when this two-week period is over, I think it’d be pretty clear to everybody (that) Russia is playing a game at the expense of the world, not just the United States."

The senator also credited growing global recognition of Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate in good faith and Russia’s refusal to reciprocate.

“It’s clear to almost anyone — Putin is not remotely interested in anything that would lead to peace,” he said. “So there’s a card game going on this summer. The first cards are going to be played by the United States Senate and the House.”

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya on May 30 reiterated that Moscow would only consider a ceasefire if Ukraine halts mobilization and stops receiving foreign military aid.

Reuters reported on May 28 that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s broader demands include a written pledge from NATO to stop expanding, the lifting of certain sanctions, and recognition of Ukraine’s neutral status.

Graham accused Moscow of stalling while ramping up its war effort and warned that the U.S. response would be swift and severe. He also issued a stark warning to Beijing.

"China, the game you’re playing with Russia is about to change. If you keep buying cheap Russian oil to fuel Putin’s war machine, there will be a 500% tariff on all of your products coming into the United States,” he said.

He added that “70% of Russian oil is bought by China and India."

The first round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over two years, held in Istanbul on May 16, produced no agreement on a ceasefire but resulted in a major prisoner exchange. A second round is tentatively scheduled for June 2.

Ukraine continues to demand a complete and unconditional ceasefire. Russia has refused, intensifying aerial assaults across Ukraine.

Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) was behind the explosions near Desantnaya Bay in Russia’s Vladivostok on May 30, which reportedly damaged military personnel and equipment, a source in HUR told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

May 30, 2025 6:06pm

Ukraine Russia Climate Photos USA

Reading Time: 8 minutes

Ben Borges

Poland’s presidential race has never seen a first-round winner with so many reasons to worry, the far right so emboldened, and Ukraine so central to the campaign.

The June 1 run-off between Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Platform (PO) and Karol Nawrocki, backed by Law and Justice (PiS), will likely reshape not only Poland’s domestic political balance but also its approach to Ukraine. And the clash will be tight: in a first-round that saw a record 67.3% turnout, Trzaskowski secured 31.4% of the vote and Nawrocki 29.5%.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland emerged as one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies – sending weapons, sheltering millions of refugees, and rallying Western support. But over time, political tensions, economic fatigue, and disputes over grain imports and historical memory have strained the relationship.

“These elections are crucial to Ukraine because they will either end the electoral cycle in Poland or open a new one,” Ukrainian political analyst Yevhen Mahda told the Kyiv Independent. “And amid global turmoil, we need a stable, friendly Poland."

The first-round results have been described as a “yellow card” for the ruling coalition that has governed Poland since 2023 under Prime Minister Donald Tusk. If outgoing President Andrzej Duda is succeeded by Nawrocki, whom he endorsed, Civic Platform will face regular obstruction through presidential vetoes.

Although the Polish president holds limited executive power, he plays a key role in foreign affairs and serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Polish presidents have historically been particularly active in shaping eastern policy.

“The past three years have shown that it is politicians who set the temperature of relations between our nations,” said Zbigniew Parafianowicz, a journalist and author of “Poland at War,” which examines Polish-Ukrainian policy at the outset of Russia’s invasion.

“Neither candidate will work wonders for Ukraine, but Kyiv has good reason to pay close attention."

Right-wing drift

Traditionally divided between the pro-European liberal PO and the conservative nationalist PiS, Poland’s political scene has long been vulnerable to populist and anti-establishment forces. This time, it was the far right that surged to unprecedented strength and could now determine the outcome.

Slawomir Mentzen, of the economically libertarian and socially conservative Confederation Party, came third with 14.8% of the vote. Although left-wing candidates Adrian Zandberg, Magdalena Biejat, and Joanna Senyszyn received a combined 10.2%, Mentzen is now widely seen as the election’s kingmaker.

In a bid to win over Mentzen’s electorate, both candidates agreed to be interviewed on his YouTube channel, and Nawrocki signed a list of demands he put forward. Hoping to capture some of those votes, Trzaskowski made a surprise visit to his pub, where they shared a beer.

Trzaskowski — a pro-European polyglot, son of a jazz musician, and senior figure in the Polish liberal establishment — faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining support from the center-left while reaching out to mostly young radical voters drawn to the Confederation. He has twice won the mayoral election in Warsaw but lost the presidential race in 2020 to Duda by just 2%, or 422,000 votes.

Mentzen has repeatedly criticized Poland’s support for Ukraine, opposing military aid and refugee assistance while promoting a nationalist narrative that frames Ukrainians as economic and cultural threats. He conditioned his sympathies in the second round on a promise not to send Polish troops to Ukraine and to oppose Ukraine’s NATO membership.

"There’s a rise in anti-Ukrainian sentiment — not just on the far right, but also in the mainstream electorate," said political analyst and president of the Batory Foundation Edwin Bendyk. "It’s driven by societal fatigue with the war next door, housing competition in big cities, and communication failures on both sides. Pro-Russian narratives don’t sell here, but anti-Ukrainian (ones) do."

It remains so despite positive developments such as the resumption of the long-stalled exhumation process of victims of the Volyn Massacre in the Ukrainian village of Puznyky, marking a symbolic step forward in addressing painful chapters of shared history, or Poland’s continued support of Kyiv’s defense needs and arms transit.

Another far-right fringe politician, Grzegorz Braun who campaigned against what he called the "Ukrainization" of Poland, came fourth with 6.3% of the vote. The man who had earlier caused an international scandal by putting out Hanukkah candles with a fire extinguisher in the Polish Parliament, tore down a Ukrainian flag from the town hall in Bielsko-Biala during the campaign.

‘Nawrocki is no Duda’

Nawrocki, previously a little-known director of the Institute of National Remembrance, openly embraced much of the far right’s platform during the campaign. He pledged to lower taxes, reject what he called the EU’s "sick" climate policies, and end what he described as Ukraine’s "indecent" treatment of Poland. He is officially not a member of PiS and positions himself as an independent candidate, not responsible for the policies of the party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

"Nawrocki is no Duda," said Bendyk. "He’s a nationalist, not a conservative. His victory would likely slow Ukraine’s integration with the West." Parafianowicz, in turn, called Nawrocki — who briefly met with Donald Trump during a U.S. visit — a "Trumpian politician" who will likely try to align with the former president’s agenda. In a move unprecedented for the U.S., Trump sent his Director of Homeland Security Kristi Noem to support Nawrocki in the final days of the race.

There have been ups and downs in Polish-Ukrainian relations since the start of the full-scale invasion – from the emotional embraces between Duda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to mutual accusations and perceived insults. While the PiS-PO rivalry dominates Poland’s brutal election campaign, it has no obvious impact on Ukraine policy — but that doesn’t mean Kyiv isn’t watching closely.

"If the most pro-Ukrainian candidate calls Ukraine a 'buffer zone,' that’s a clear sign something has gone wrong," Ukrainian historian and publicist Wasyl Rasevych told the Kyiv Independent, referring to a term Trzaskowski used repeatedly during the campaign.

"Russian propaganda undermines EU unity and spreads instability in countries aiding Ukraine, and Poland may unwittingly be playing into that scenario," he added.

Ahead of the vote, Polish authorities uncovered a foreign-funded disinformation campaign on Facebook and cyberattacks targeting government parties. Officials suspect Russia, which is also blamed for a 2024 arson attack on Warsaw’s Marywilska shopping center, viewing it as part of a wider hybrid warfare strategy to destabilize Ukraine’s allies.

While Russian meddling is real, some argue its impact is overstated. "We’ve inflated the idea of ‘Russian influence’ so much," said Parafianowicz, "that we’ve lost sight of proportion." The true sources of discontent, he argues, lie in domestic politics on both sides of the border.

Disappointed allies

According to Parafianowicz, Polish political elites' disappointment with Zelensky is "an open secret." He cites the Ukrainian president’s refusal to acknowledge that the missile that killed two Poles in Przewodow was Ukrainian and his remarks about Poland at the UN in 2023, as examples of what he sees as a growing disregard for Warsaw’s leadership.

Despite these frictions, Poland and Ukraine remain strategic allies. Both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have pledged to increase defense spending, strengthen the Polish military, maintain a hardline stance on the Belarusian border, and continue supporting Ukraine militarily.

But the key difference lies in their vision of international alliances — and their willingness to sideline Ukraine’s interests.

"The Polish right is afraid of Ukrainian economic competition and Kyiv’s political alignment with Berlin," said Rasevych. "Ukraine would welcome a winner who truly pursues deeper cooperation with the EU and Germany."

Trzaskowski appears to offer that option and promises to gain more leverage in the EU, together with heavyweight politicians such as Tusk or Polish hawkish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. But with traditional alliances shaken by unpredictable Trump, no one can foresee which cards will turn out lucky.

"The idea that Poles and Ukrainians truly understand each other is a dangerous myth," Mahda said. "Ukraine needs both a Plan A and a Plan B — prepared for either Trzaskowski or Nawrocki, while staying focused on real issues in defense, energy, and the economy."

‘A serious crisis’ — pro-Russian leader in Bosnia threatening peace in the Balkans

BANJA LUKA, Bosnia and Herzegovina — When a court convicted Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik of defying an international peace envoy in February, it was supposed to end his career in politics. He faced not only jail time, but a ban on holding public office. But three months later, little has

The Kyiv IndependentBrawley Benson

May 30, 2025 4:19pm

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Ben Borges

Russian President Vladimir Putin is “fundamentally in favor” of meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on May 30, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

The statement comes amid renewed diplomatic maneuvering to schedule the next round of peace talks in Istanbul, tentatively proposed for June 2.

Peskov stressed that a high-level summit would require concrete outcomes from the negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations.

“President Putin has repeatedly said that he is fundamentally in favor of high-level contacts, which are undoubtedly needed,” Peskov said. “But they must be prepared, and first, a result must be achieved in negotiations between the delegations."

On May 30, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on May 30 that Turkey would be open to hosting a possible meeting among the three leaders, with the participation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as well. Fidan’s statement followed his visits to both Kyiv and Moscow.

Zelensky previously invited Putin to Istanbul for direct talks on May 16, proposing a three-way format with Trump to push forward peace efforts. Putin declined to attend, sending a low-level delegation led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky.

The Istanbul talks ended without agreement on a ceasefire or broader political settlement, though the sides did agree to the largest prisoner exchange of the full-scale war.

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Moscow has rejected Kyiv's repeated calls for a complete and unconditional ceasefire, despite mounting international pressure. Russia has instead intensified its aerial assaults across Ukraine and is reportedly preparing for a renewed summer offensive.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed on May 29 that Moscow plans to present a draft "ceasefire memorandum" at the June 2 meeting in Istanbul. He added that Medinsky's team would be prepared to explain its content to the Ukrainian delegation.

Zelensky's Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said on May 29 that Kyiv is open to the talks but insists that Russia share the memorandum ahead of the meeting.

The Kremlin has repeatedly attacked Zelensky's legitimacy as president, pointing out that his first presidential term was originally meant to end on May 20, 2024.

Ukraine's constitution prohibits elections during martial law, which has been in effect since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022. As a result, Zelensky's term has been extended, which constitutional lawyers argue is permitted under Ukrainian law.

Trump, who held a two-hour phone call with Putin on May 19 and is pushing to broker a ceasefire deal, has backed the idea of a high-level summit. Putin and Zelensky have met only once — in December 2019, during the Normandy Format talks in Paris.

Russia ‘testing’ Europe’s capacity to help Ukraine by intensifying air attacks

As Russia ramps up its missile and drone strikes countrywide, all eyes are on Europe’s capacity to continue supporting Ukraine, with the future of U.S. military aid growing ever more uncertain. Ukraine should have enough air defense missiles despite the persisting shortage to avoid the worst of the

The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima

May 30, 2025 2:07pm

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 6 minutes

Ben Borges

As Russia ramps up its missile and drone strikes countrywide, all eyes are on Europe’s capacity to continue supporting Ukraine, with the future of U.S. military aid growing ever more uncertain.

Ukraine should have enough air defense missiles despite the persisting shortage to avoid the worst of the attacks, but much depends on the intensity of the Russian campaigns, according to experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent.

“I think what the Russians are doing now is trying to test how deep the pockets are and how large the inventories are on the Ukrainian and European side,” said Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen, professor at the University of Copenhagen, who specializes in military strategy and defense policy.

“If the Russians are actually able to, which they might not be, continue a very high operational tempo and thus deplete Ukrainian stocks, then I think it would be more difficult.”

Europe’s ability to bolster its own production line of air defense missiles and the possibility of continuing to buy interceptors from the U.S. to increase its capacity would be the major factors for Ukraine, the experts said.

Ukraine’s increasing reliance on Europe comes four months after U.S. President Donald Trump, who has held close ties with Russia, took over the White House. Trump has since then pushed both sides for a peace deal to end the war at all costs, threatening to walk away if there is no progress made in the near future.

Uncertainty mounts over the future of the military aid and intelligence sharing from the U.S., Ukraine’s most important ally.

Even as Moscow stepped into the peace talks and held a direct meeting with Kyiv for the first time in three years, Russian troops intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, far from the battlefield. The deadly attacks raised questions about Moscow’s intent.

Amid missile shortage, Ukraine’s air defenses are struggling under Russian ballistic attacks

As the air defense missile stocks run low and the future of U.S. military aid to Ukraine grows increasingly uncertain, Kyiv is under pressure to defend its sky. The concerns mount as Russia scales up its aerial attacks across Ukraine, combining ballistic missiles and drones to overwhelm air defenses.

The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima

Missile shortage

Over the weekend, Russia launched a series of aerial assaults on Kyiv and other cities using dozens of missiles and drones, with the May 25 campaign killing 12 civilians across the country, according to Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko.

Ukraine has faced a shortage of air defense missiles, a source in the Air Force told the Kyiv Independent in April. The chronic shortage forces Ukraine to ration its resources even as Russia deploys more ballistic missiles in such attacks.

While Ukraine has received a variety of air defense weapons since the onset of the war, only the PAC-3 Patriot air defense missiles offer a reliable shield from Russia’s ballistic missiles due to their speed.

The Düsseldorf-based defense company Rheinmetall announced that talks are ongoing to create a joint venture with the U.S. Lockheed Martin, which produces PAC-3 Patriot missiles. The aim is to produce up to 10,000 missiles from long-range ATACMS to PAC-3, and that it would be ready in about a year, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said.

Lockheed Martin said that it produced 500 PAC-3 Patriot missiles in 2024 and plans to produce 650 per year.

Experts argue that Europe should have ramped up the production of these crucial weapons sooner, as such a process takes time.

“This process (European arms production) has been much too slow going since 2022, and it is still not at the tempo we would like,” Professor Rasmussen told the Kyiv Independent.

The Copenhagen-based expert believes that Ukraine’s ability to defend its own sky would depend in the short term on “whether Europe is willing to empty its own stocks and (whether it is) able to buy from the Americans in order to supplement stocks.”

Ukrainian aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap also stressed that his country “critically depends” on Europe, as it is “the only partner we can count on” with Trump’s return to power.

“I think that Europe could transfer some of the missiles from the Patriot systems to us, but they keep them, as they say, in reserve, just in case,” Kryvolap told the Kyiv Independent, though the data on Europe’s stocks remains unclear.

Kryvolap pointed out that as the war moves into a phase of “harder strikes and more attention to the (remaining) resources,” Europe’s dependability is important. But rather than waiting for the missiles to fly toward Ukrainian cities, the expert said the bigger focus should be on the long-range strikes on companies that produce components and fuel for these missiles.

The U.S. would continue sending military aid to Ukraine that was already committed before, at about a billion dollars a month “for quite a while,” according to Retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Cancian said that with Trump showing frustrations for Russia’s intensifying aerial attacks, it is likely that the U.S. would still allow Europe to buy American inventories, as it also helps both domestic employment and manufacturing.

For the near term, Europe buying missiles and launchers from the U.S. should be enough for Ukraine “to get by” until it rebuilds its own defense industry, according to Cancian. He added that cheaper and more available variants such as U.S.-provided NASAMS air defense missiles and surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) should prevent most Russian attacks, with Moscow firing only “a handful of ballistic missiles.”

“It wouldn't stop everything but it would maybe stop the most dangerous attacks,” Cancian told the Kyiv Independent.

The U.S. has received about 1,900 PAC-3 Patriot missiles, which are the most up-to-date variants, and produces about 20 a month, Cancian said.

But the real concern is if the U.S. does shut off its military aid to Ukraine, again, as it did in February after the Oval Office clash with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“The Europeans will always produce some, so it’s not like Ukraine would have nothing,” Cancian said.

“But obviously what the Ukrainians want, understandably, is more.”

Luigi Scazzieri, a senior policy analyst for defense at the Paris-based European Union Institute for Security Studies, pointed out that another key question is whether the U.S. would greenlight Europe to hand over the U.S. interceptors produced in Europe to Ukraine.

“That could be a significant source of supply and there are signs that the U.S. is willing to do so –  earlier this month it allowed Germany to transfer Patriots to Ukraine,” Scazzieri told the Kyiv Independent.

“This is a priority area for Europe both because of Ukraine’s own urgent needs and because this is recognized as a gap in Europe’s own defenses.”

Infighting around EU rearmament undermines grand ambitions for European defense

Despite grand plans, the European Union’s hoped-for rearmament remains fully dependent on member nations stepping up their own defenses. In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an 800-million-euro “Rearm Europe” plan to build out a defense architecture that has depended on the U.S. since the

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

May 30, 2025 12:40pm

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

Ukraine is ready to attend the second round of peace talks with the Russian delegation in Istanbul on June 2, but seeks to receive a draft of Russia’s proposed ceasefire memorandum before the meeting, said Presidential Office Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak on May 29.

Ukraine and Russia held peace talks in Istanbul on May 16, where both sides agreed to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. The peace negotiations were largely inconclusive, with Moscow reiterating maximalist demands and sending a delegation of lower-level officials.

Moscow has proposed June 2 as the date for the next round of talks with Ukraine, despite escalating its attacks on the country.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on May 29 that the Russian delegation, led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, is prepared to present the memorandum to the Ukrainian side and provide necessary clarifications during the next Istanbul meeting.

Kyiv insists on receiving the memorandum ahead of the new round of talks in order to understand Russia’s proposed steps toward a ceasefire. Ukraine has already submitted its own document to the Russian side.

“Ukraine is ready to attend the next meeting, but we want to engage in a constructive discussion. This means it is important to receive Russia’s draft. There is enough time – four days are sufficient for preparing and sending the documents,” Yermak said during a conversation with advisors to the leaders of the U.K., Germany, France, and Italy.

Security advisors from the four countries are expected to attend the second round of peace talks in Istanbul, U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said.

Russia vowed to present its peace memorandum but has yet to deliver, drawing rebuke from Ukrainian, European, and U.S. officials. Trump has also repeatedly signaled he would exit the peace efforts unless progress is achieved soon.

Reuters reported that Putin’s conditions for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine include a written pledge by NATO not to accept more Eastern European members, lifting of some sanctions, and Ukraine’s neutral status, among other demands.

Infighting around EU rearmament undermines grand ambitions for European defense

Despite grand plans, the European Union’s hoped-for rearmament remains fully dependent on member nations stepping up their own defenses. In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an 800-million-euro “Rearm Europe” plan to build out a defense architecture that has depended on the U.S. since the

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

May 30, 2025 8:21am

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

NATO’s eastward expansion is a “fair” concern for Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said in an interview with ABC News on May 29.

As one of the conditions for ending the full-scale war against Ukraine, Putin demanded a written pledge by NATO not to accept more Eastern European members, which would effectively block Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova from joining, Reuters reported earlier this week.

Moscow has claimed that Ukraine’s NATO aspirations were one of the key causes of its invasion. Russian aggression against Ukraine began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas, a time when Kyiv had little prospect of joining the alliance in the foreseeable future.

When asked whether Trump would commit to halting NATO expansion, Kellogg replied that “it’s a fair concern."

Trump’s special envoy also reiterated that Ukraine’s membership in the alliance “is not on the table,” adding that Washington is not alone in its hesitation, as several other member states share similar doubts about Kyiv’s accession.

“And that’s one of the issues Russia will bring up… They’re also talking about Georgia, they’re talking about Moldova, they’re talking — obviously — about Ukraine. And we’re saying, ‘Okay, let’s address this comprehensively,'” Kellogg said.

According to him, a decision of NATO’s expansion would ultimately be up to the U.S. president, and any agreement would likely involve negotiations between Trump, Putin, and President Volodymyr Zelensky to reach a settlement of the Russia’s war.

Trump has repeatedly echoed Moscow’s narrative that Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO have been one of the root causes of the full-scale invasion.

In March this year, Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha  rejected restrictions on joining international alliances and organizations — namely, NATO and the EU — as part of a potential peace deal.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale war. The country has not received a formal invitation, as the 32 members have struggled to reach a consensus.

Infighting around EU rearmament undermines grand ambitions for European defense

Despite grand plans, the European Union’s hoped-for rearmament remains fully dependent on member nations stepping up their own defenses. In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an 800-million-euro “Rearm Europe” plan to build out a defense architecture that has depended on the U.S. since the

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

May 30, 2025 6:57am

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Ben Borges

Security advisors from the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany will attend planned peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on June 2, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said in an interview with ABC News on May 29.

“We’ll have what we call the E3. That is the national security advisors from Germany, France, and Great Britain… When we were in London, they kind of helped us mold a term sheet for Ukraine,” Kellogg said.

Ukraine and Russia held peace talks in Istanbul on May 16, where both sides agreed to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. The peace negotiations were largely inconclusive, with Moscow reiterating maximalist demands and sending a delegation of lower-level officials.

“What they’re doing with their ballistic missiles, with the Iskanders firing into cities like Kyiv, or using their drones shooting into Kyiv… When they did that the other day, that’s a direct violation of what’s called the Geneva protocols,” Kellogg said, reiterating previous statements.

Trump, on May 19, held a two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin during which Russia reiterated its refusal to a full ceasefire in its war against Ukraine.

“He’s killing a lot of people… I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin, I’ve known him for a long time,” Trump said on May 25. In the same statement, Trump told journalists sanctions against Russia could be on the table amid Russia’s intensified attacks.

Despite the peace talks in Turkey, Russia has increased drone and missile attacks against Ukraine.

Despite recent peace talks, Moscow has refused a ceasefire and instead insisted it will provide Ukraine with a memorandum of a peace proposal.

Russia has not given Ukraine the proposal despite indicating it would once peace talks concluded on May 16. Kyiv has not yet officially announced it will attend the next peace talks slated to take place on June 2 in Turkey.

Kellogg on May 27 criticized former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for comments that alluded to the threat of World War III, calling them “reckless” and “unfitting of a world power."

“Trump… is working to stop this war and end the killing. We await receipt of (the Russian) Memorandum… that you promised a week ago. Cease fire now,” Kellogg said.

“The indiscriminate killing of women and children at night in their homes is a clear violation of the 1977 Geneva Peace Protocols designed to protect innocents. These attacks are shameful,” Kellogg said on May 25, following Russian attacks on Kyiv.

Ukraine war latest: Russia reports 2nd consecutive day of Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow

* Russia reports 2nd consecutive day of Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, building damaged on the outskirts * Rubio, Lavrov discuss next round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul * ‘No one has seen it yet’ — Zelensky slams Russia for stalling on ceasefire memorandum ahead of Istanbul talks * Russia amassed enough troops to

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

May 29, 2025 11:35pm

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Reading Time: 3 minutes

Ben Borges

U.S. President Donald Trump hopes that the forthcoming peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will “move the ball forward” on his efforts to broker a peace deal, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on May 29.

Moscow proposed that the next round of direct talks be held on June 2 in Istanbul, where Russia will present a long-awaited memorandum outlining its conditions for a ceasefire. President Volodymyr Zelensky has criticized Russia’s delay in releasing its terms as a stalling tactic.

Trump claimed on May 28 that it would “take about two weeks, or week and a half,” to know if Russian President Vladimir Putin was stalling or truly interested in peace.

In response to a question about Trump’s recent comments, Leavitt said that the U.S. expects the Istanbul talks to go forward.

“It is my understanding and it is our hope that Russia and Ukraine will engage in direct talks and negotiations next week in Istanbul,” she told reporters.

“And we believe that meeting is going to take place, and that is a meeting the president encouraged and urged, for these two sides to come together and negotiate directly. And the president has been clear from the very beginning of this conflict that he wants to see this conflict solved on the negotiating table, not on the battlefield."

Trump has expressed his hopes for a negotiated settlement to both Putin and Zelensky in private and public comments, Leavitt said.

“So hopefully next week it will move the ball forward in this effort."

Leavitt did not confirm whether or not Trump would be participating directly in the next round of peace talks, saying she would update the press if the president chose to send a representative.

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Washington's attempts to broker a peace deal have not yielded any substantial breakthroughs thus far. For months, Moscow has resisted pressure to impose a full 30-day ceasefire, instead proposing (and subsequently violating) partial short-term truces, calling for further talks, and insisting Kyiv make extreme concessions to maximalist demands.

Meanwhile, Russia has dramatically escalated drone and missile attacks against civilian targets in Ukraine.

While Ukraine has been ready to accept a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire since March 11, the Kremlin has refused, dragging out the process with inconclusive talks while building up its forces in preparation for another military offensive in Ukraine this summer.

During a phone call with Putin on May 19, Trump was told that a "memorandum of peace" outlining conditions for a ceasefire would be delivered shortly. The Kremlin's failure to deliver the memorandum amid mass attacks signaled Russia's lack of urgency regarding the peace process.

Trump has at times criticized Putin for appearing to delay the negotiations, but has never followed through on any of his sanctions threats. Trump again threatened sanctions after Russia launched three days of mass attacks against Ukraine in a row, calling Putin "crazy" and warning that his actions could lead to "the downfall of Russia."

But on May 28, Trump said he would not impose new sanctions on Russia due to the forthcoming peace talks in Istanbul.

"If I think I'm close to getting a deal, I don't want to screw it up by doing that," he said.

May 29, 2025 9:16pm

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 8 minutes

Ben Borges

• Russia reports 2nd consecutive day of Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, building damaged on the outskirts
• Rubio, Lavrov discuss next round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul
• 'No one has seen it yet' — Zelensky slams Russia for stalling on ceasefire memorandum ahead of Istanbul talks
• Russia amassed enough troops to attack Ukraine's Sumy Oblast, Border Guard warns
• Next Ramstein summit to take place on June 4 in Brussels

A building was reportedly damaged on the outskirts of Moscow following a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian capital overnight on May 29, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported.

This marks the second consecutive day of attacks on Moscow Oblast, with multiple industrial facilities targeted by Ukrainian drones and several unmanned aircraft reportedly downed on approach to the capital on May 28.

Videos and photos posted on social media by local residents purportedly show damage sustained by a residential building on Vernadsky Avenue in Southwest Moscow. Explosions were heard in the area around 1:40 a.m. local time.

Sobyanin claimed that no one was injured in the attack that occurred as a result of falling drone debris.

The full extent of the damage was not immediately clear. Ukraine's military has not commented on the reported attack.

Russian air defenses shot down 48 Ukrainian drones overnight, including three over Moscow Oblast, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed.

The Kyiv Independent cannot independently verify reports or claims made by Russian officials.

The previous night on May 28, Russian air defenses shot down 296 Ukrainian drones across multiple regions overnight, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed, potentially marking one of the heaviest drone attacks against Russia during the full-scale war.

How much does a Russian drone attack on Ukraine cost? The question is more complicated than it sounds

Beginning overnight on Saturday, May 24, Russia rained down nearly a thousand drones and missiles on villages and cities across Ukraine in three nights of large-scale aerial attacks, as civilians spent hours sheltering underground. Russia’s bombardment killed more than a dozen people and injured dozens more, in one of

The Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta

Rubio, Lavrov discuss next round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov presented to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio Moscow's "specific proposals" for the next round of peace talks with Ukraine, Russia's Foreign Ministry announced on May 29.

The two diplomats held a phone call on May 28, the day when Russia proposed holding negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 in a follow-up to the first round on May 16.

Lavrov also "informed Marco Rubio about implementing the May 19 agreements between President of Russia Vladimir Putin and President of the United States Donald Trump," the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

Trump and Putin held a phone call on May 19, during which the Russian leader again rejected a truce and pushed for maximalist demands, but also voiced his readiness to negotiate a "memorandum regarding a potential future peace treaty."

During the call with Lavrov, Rubio stressed Trump's "intention to quickly bring the Ukraine conflict to an end and expressed Washington's readiness to help the sides to bring their positions closer together," according to the Russian readout.

While initially reluctant to criticize Putin, Trump adopted an increasingly critical tone toward the Russian leader in recent days as Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities intensify and the Kremlin continues to reject calls for a ceasefire.

Kyiv and its European partners have urged the U.S. to impose additional sanctions to pressure Moscow to agree to a truce. Trump has refused to take the step so far, saying he is "close to getting a deal" and does not want to "screw it up" by fresh sanctions.

Europe’s ‘Trump shock’ is opportunity to forge ‘new West,’ Timothy Garton Ash says

A so-called “Trump shock” has plunged Europe into its deepest crisis since 1945, but also presents an opportunity for the continent to forge a “new West,” British historian and commentator Timothy Garton Ash has said in an interview with the Kyiv Independent. The first months of Trump’s presidency dispelled any

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

'No one has seen it yet' — Zelensky slams Russia for stalling on ceasefire memorandum ahead of Istanbul talks

President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 29 accused Russia of stalling the peace process by failing to deliver a promised negotiations memorandum, warning international partners that Moscow is trying to deceive those still relying on diplomacy over pressure.

"Even the so-called memorandum they promised and claimed to be preparing for more than a week — no one has seen it," Zelensky said. "Ukraine hasn't received it. Our partners haven't received it. Even Turkey, which hosted the first meeting, hasn’t received the updated agenda."

Russia's Foreign Ministry previously claimed its delegation, led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, would present the ceasefire framework at the June 2 talks, proposed by Moscow.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed on May 29 that the same Russian delegation, led by Medinsky, will attend the new round of peace talks in Istanbul.

Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said Ukraine has already shared its position paper with Russia.

Speaking after a high-level meeting with Umerov, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and presidential chief of staff Andrii Yermak, Zelensky said Ukraine is maintaining daily coordination with allies ahead of another round of talks in Istanbul.

Zelensky called for renewed international pressure on Russia, saying, "Words don't work with Moscow. They are doing everything to make these meetings meaningless. That is why sanctions and real pressure on Russia are essential."

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, whose country hosted the May 16 negotiations, said Ankara expects Ukrainian and Russian positions to come closer.

"If there's a diplomatic achievement here, it's not just thanks to Turkish diplomacy, but to the fact that both sides have been willing to talk and that these talks have led to tangible outcomes," Fidan said on his way to Kyiv, where he is expected to meet Sybiha and Zelensky.

‘Shooting Russia in the back’ — Serbian companies supplying ammunition to Ukraine, Moscow claims

“The Serbian defense industry is trying to shoot Russia in the back,” Russian foreign intelligence (SVR) claimed.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Russia amassed enough troops to attack Ukraine's Sumy Oblast, Border Guard warns

Russia has concentrated a sufficient amount of forces in Kursk Oblast to potentially launch an attack on Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said on May 29.

The statement comes amid warnings of a new possible Russian offensive this summer as U.S.-mediated peace efforts have failed to produce a ceasefire deal.

Russia has become increasingly active in Sumy Oblast after mostly pushing out Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian authorities recently confirmed that Russian forces captured four Sumy Oblast villages close to the border: Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka.

Speaking on national television, Demchenko said Russia began amassing forces when it attempted to push Ukrainian troops out of Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine launched its operation in August 2024.

Russia continues to maintain a force in Kursk Oblast, and Ukraine periodically detects a "certain change in the number of both soldiers and equipment in this area," the spokesperson said.

Russia "has enough forces there (in Kursk Oblast) to carry out operations against our border and attempt to attack the territory of Ukraine," he continued.

The remarks came days after President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia is accumulating 50,000 troops near Ukraine's northeastern Sumy Oblast, seeking to create a 10-kilometer buffer zone in the area.

Infighting around EU rearmament undermines grand ambitions for European defense

Despite grand plans, the European Union’s hoped-for rearmament remains fully dependent on member nations stepping up their own defenses. In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an 800-million-euro “Rearm Europe” plan to build out a defense architecture that has depended on the U.S. since the

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

Next Ramstein summit to take place on June 4 in Brussels

The upcoming Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting in the Ramstein format will be held on June 4 in Brussels under the chairmanship of the U.K. and Germany, NATO announced on May 29.

The Ramstein summit will take place as Washington is trying to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia to end Moscow's full-scale war.

In the meantime, Russia is amassing forces for a new offensive against Ukraine while continuing its attacks on civilians across the country, straining Ukrainian air defenses.

The last Ramstein-format meeting took place in Brussels on April 11 under the chairmanship of London and Berlin — a position previously held by the U.S.

Leadership over Ramstein transitioned following the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

During the previous meeting, NATO allies committed more than 21 billion euros ($23.8 billion) in long-term military aid to Ukraine.

The move came amid growing uncertainty over U.S. support for Ukraine and efforts by European allies to close the gap as Kyiv resists Russia's ongoing war.

Note from the author:

Ukraine War Latest is put together by the Kyiv Independent news desk team, who keep you informed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. If you value our work and want to ensure we have the resources to continue, join the Kyiv Independent community.

May 29, 2025 7:16pm

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Reading Time: 3 minutes

Ben Borges

Editor’s note: The story was updated to include a statement from Russia’s Foreign Ministry.

President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 29 accused Russia of stalling the peace process by failing to deliver a promised negotiations memorandum, warning international partners that Moscow is trying to deceive those still relying on diplomacy over pressure.

“Even the so-called memorandum they promised and claimed to be preparing for more than a week — no one has seen it,” Zelensky said. “Ukraine hasn’t received it. Our partners haven’t received it. Even Turkey, which hosted the first meeting, hasn’t received the updated agenda."

Russia’s Foreign Ministry previously claimed its delegation, led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, would present the ceasefire framework at the June 2 talks, proposed by Moscow.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed on May 29 that the same Russian delegation, led by Medinsky, will attend the new round of peace talks in Istanbul.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said Ukraine has already shared its position paper with Russia.

Speaking after a high-level meeting with Umerov, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and presidential chief of staff Andrii Yermak, Zelensky said Ukraine is maintaining daily coordination with allies ahead of another round of talks in Istanbul.

Zelensky called for renewed international pressure on Russia, saying, “Words don’t work with Moscow. They are doing everything to make these meetings meaningless. That is why sanctions and real pressure on Russia are essential."

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, whose country hosted the May 16 negotiations, said Ankara expects Ukrainian and Russian positions to come closer.

“If there’s a diplomatic achievement here, it’s not just thanks to Turkish diplomacy, but to the fact that both sides have been willing to talk and that these talks have led to tangible outcomes,” Fidan said on his way to Kyiv, where he is expected to meet Sybiha and Zelensky.

Before his visit to Kyiv, Fidan met with Medinsky and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Fidan said that during the visit, Turkey shared its vision of realistic conditions that could help make a ceasefire attainable.

“We conveyed Turkey’s determined efforts in this matter to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, the chief negotiator, Foreign Minister Lavrov, and the intelligence chief. As a key regional actor, Turkey has shared its perspective on the realistic parameters that could make a ceasefire achievable,” Fidan said.

He also added that Russia’s current demands for a ceasefire are putting Moscow in “a relatively weaker position."

"(U.S. President Donald) Trump expressed a firm desire to see an immediate ceasefire. This encouraged Ukraine and Europe to align more flexibly with the U.S. stance. However, Russia did not show the same flexibility, which has placed it in a relatively weaker position in the eyes of both the U.S. and other proponents of the ceasefire,” he said

Russia has repeatedly claimed that it would agree on a ceasefire in case the so-called “root causes” of war in Ukraine are addressed, meaning its long-standing maximalist demands of Kyiv — the same ones it has voiced since the start of the full-scale invasion and has used as propaganda to justify its aggression against Ukraine.

Among them, Moscow insists Kyiv withdraw from four partially occupied Ukrainian regions it claims to have annexed.

Russia’s memorandum also reportedly includes a written pledge that NATO will not expand further eastward, effectively blocking Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova from joining, as well as the lifting of some Western sanctions, resolution of frozen Russian assets, and “the protection of Russian-speaking Ukrainians."

Ukraine sends ceasefire memo, urges Russia to respond ahead of June 2 peace talks, Umerov says

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on May 28 that Kyiv is still awaiting the Russian side’s proposed ceasefire memorandum, which was expected following peace talks in Turkey earlier this month.

The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova

May 29, 2025 4:26pm

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Ben Borges

Russia has tripled its projected budget deficit for 2025 amid a sharp drop in oil revenues, driven by Western sanctions and plunging crude prices, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s commissioner for sanctions policy, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, said on May 29.

According to Vlasiuk, the Kremlin has recently approved changes to its federal budget, increasing the planned deficit from 1.17 trillion rubles ($14.8 billion) to 3.8 trillion rubles ($48.3 billion), or from 0.5% to 1.7% of GDP.

“The reasons? Cheaper oil and a strengthening ruble, which together are slashing oil and gas revenues by nearly a quarter — a loss of 2.6 trillion rubles ($33 billion) from the original forecast,” Vlasiuk wrote in a statement. He pointed to a revised price forecast for Russia’s Urals crude, cut from $69.70 to $56 per barrel.

Reuters reported earlier this month that Urals and ESPO crude blends dropped to $48.90 per barrel — the lowest level in two years and about 40% below the $82.60 price Moscow had initially budgeted for 2025.

Vlasiuk said international sanctions remain a key driver behind the decline in Russia’s energy revenues. “Sanctions against Russia are working,” he said. “This is confirmed by many indicators, and we are grateful for all the work that has already been done."

Ukraine has long been advocating for tighter sanctions against the Russian energy sector, particularly its shadow fleet. Despite hundreds of Russian tankers already under sanctions, many vessels remain operational and continue to ship Russian oil.

“Half of the sanctioned shadow fleet is still functioning,” Vlasiuk said, calling for expanded measures — including sanctions on Russian ports, terminals, and even individual ship captains.

Russia’s energy sector, which provided nearly 30% of the federal budget in early 2024, has been hit by drone strikes from Ukraine and increasing global pressure. The recent plunge in prices followed new tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on April 7, which spurred fears of a global recession and dragged oil prices to their lowest levels since May 2023.

Speaking on May 5, Trump claimed that Russia had become more willing to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine due to falling oil prices. “I think Russia, with the price of oil right now, oil has gone down, we are in a good position to settle, they want to settle. Ukraine wants to settle,” he told reporters.

The financial strain comes as Moscow boosts defense spending by 25% for 2025, raising it to 6.3% of GDP — the highest share since the Cold War. The Kremlin has acknowledged the challenges, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov calling the global market conditions “extremely turbulent” and vowing economic measures to “minimize the consequences."

For Ukraine, Vlasiuk said the latest data sends a clear message: “We are grateful for all the work done so far… But if we want to level up, more needs to be done."

The U.S. recently blocked a G7 push to lower the $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil exports, the Financial Times reported on May 27. The cap, imposed by the G7 and EU in December 2022, bars Western firms from servicing Russian oil sold above that price to limit Moscow’s war funding.

While Canada, the EU, and key G7 members supported tightening the cap, the proposal was dropped after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent withheld support. The European Commission had reportedly planned to propose cutting the cap to $50.

Sanctions on Russia are working, Ukraine just needs more

Sanctions on their own won’t end the war, but they are a crucial tool in the West’s efforts to pressure Putin.

The Kyiv IndependentDominic Culverwell

May 29, 2025 3:47pm

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Reading Time: 11 minutes

Ben Borges

A so-called “Trump shock” has plunged Europe into its deepest crisis since 1945, but also presents an opportunity for the continent to forge a “new West,” British historian and commentator Timothy Garton Ash has said in an interview with the Kyiv Independent.

The first months of Trump’s presidency dispelled any illusions in European capitals that the long-held transatlantic partnership would hold firm no matter who sits in the White House.

Washington has signaled reduced military presence in Europe and slashed funding for vital programs promoting democracy and human rights across the continent, putting the U.S.’s role as the leader of the free world in doubt.

Amid perhaps the greatest challenge to Europe’s security, Trump also seems to be washing his hands of the Russia-Ukraine war without even attempting to exert additional pressure on Moscow or boost Kyiv’s fighting chance.

The “Trump shock” is only accumulating the security challenges facing Europe in what may be its deepest crisis since World War II, Ash told the Kyiv Independent during an interview in Lviv on May 16.

Yet, therein also lies an opportunity for European leaders to forge a “new West” that would preserve what’s left of the liberal world order amid rising authoritarianism and populism, he adds.

Reflecting on world events since his last interview with the Kyiv Independent in May 2024, Ash admits that the U.S. may never be what it was. But, drawing on his background as a historian, he notes that history is full of examples of swings between surging authoritarianism, and a successful liberal fight-back.

Editor’s note: The interview has been edited for clarity.

The Kyiv Independent: Last time we talked, you said that we are at the beginning of a new era, and our first steps are going to shape what this new era looks like. One year later, Donald Trump has been elected U.S. president, he jump started major changes in the global security order, Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, and populism is rising across Europe. How would you evaluate these first steps of the new era?

Timothy Garton Ash: The triple shock: the Putin shock, what I call the Xi Jinping shock, and now the Trump shock means that we are in the deepest crisis Europe has been in for a very long time, in some respects, since 1945.

But it also means that we all know that in Europe.

Last Friday (May 9), while Xi Jinping and President Lula (of Brazil) and (Prime Minister) Robert Fico of Slovakia were sitting with Vladimir Putin on Red Square, EU foreign ministers were sitting in the Lviv City Hall just up the road to show their solidarity with Ukraine.

And then (French) President Emmanuel Macron, (German) Chancellor Friedrich Mertz, (U.K.) Prime Minister Starmer and (Polish Prime Minister Donald) Tusk were in Kyiv.

So the crisis has become deeper, but the possibility that Europe might seize the opportunity of the crisis is also more apparent.

The Kyiv Independent: Since the end of World War II, the U.S. has cast itself as a leader of the free world. Would you say that it is now abandoning this role? And if so, why now?

Timothy Garton Ash: Excellent question. I think there’s no doubt at all that Donald Trump is not the leader of the free world, whatever that means, and that the West as a geopolitical actor does not exist today in the way we’ve assumed it existed for the last 80 years. And that is a result of two different things: America and Trump.

There’s a long-term trend of the United States becoming less committed to and less engaged in Europe, which started already after the end of the Cold War. It was happening under the Democrats and under the Republicans. It’s turning either to what (Barack) Obama called nation-building at home, or the pivot to Asia.

Then you have the Trump factor, which is this extreme narcissistic bully who obviously has a special relationship with Vladimir Putin and who is abandoning the notion of the United States as a defender of the liberal international order and basically positioning the United States as one transactional great power amongst many.

What does that mean? It means we have a really urgent challenge for the four years of Trump, but we also have a long-term challenge because the United States will never again be what it was before.

The Kyiv Independent: If the U.S. abandons this role and the era of the U.S.-led unipolar world ends, how will the new global security order look?

Timothy Garton Ash: First of all, we never really had a unipolar world. Even the U.S.-led liberal international order was only a large part of the world. It worked because the United States was what the Princeton scholar John Ikenberry calls a "Liberal Leviathan."

The Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO was always a U.S. general. We had the U.S. nuclear guarantee for our security in Europe. We certainly had a U.S. security order in Europe, in significant parts of Asia and in Oceania, Australia, New Zealand.

That's what's now in question. So I believe that if we are to preserve what's left of the liberal international order, which is not a great deal, it's up to us as Europeans, but also other liberal democratic partners.

Suddenly, Canada becomes much more important to us. Australia becomes important to us. Japan becomes important to us. In other words, there's a whole new constellation of liberal international order — if you like, a new West.

The Kyiv Independent: What is Europe's role in the era of weakening transatlantic relations, of rising authoritarianism around the world?

Timothy Garton Ash: First of all, our role is to defend ourselves and to look after what we've achieved in Europe over the last 80 years. That means defending ourselves against external enemies or challenges. Obviously, Vladimir Putin's Russia in the first place, but also China in a different way, and other powers.

Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Debunking Putin’s ‘root causes’ claims

As Russia continues to bombard cities and towns across Ukraine, Russian officials have hardened their position against a ceasefire, continuing to repeat the obscure demand that the war’s “root causes” be addressed before agreeing to any truce. For months, the phrase “root causes” has become a go-to talking point

The Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta

Secondly, it would be to try and preserve at least some elements of what we call the liberal international order — for example, a free trading world, an international economic order. The EU is a regulatory superpower. Can we preserve some of those shared regulations around the world?

The Kyiv Independent: How would you evaluate Europe's response so far to these new shocks, specifically to the shock of the Trump administration?

Timothy Garton Ash: I think the political will at the top is now there. The question is capability. Just in purely military terms, there's a short list of things that only the United States can provide — the intelligence, the Patriot interceptor missiles, the strategic enablers.

Beyond that, the political will may be there at the top in Europe, but can our leaders continue to persuade their publics through a whole series of national elections that this is the course we should stick to? We have Viktor Orban as the veto player in Hungary. We have Robert Fico in Slovakia.

Very soon, we will probably have a nationalist president of Romania (The interview took place on May 16, before far-right George Simion was defeated in the Romanian presidential election by pro-EU Nicusor Dan).

According to the current opinion polls, Mr. (Andrej) Babis will probably come back (to power) in the Czech Republic. So suddenly, you've got a whole group of countries that want a very different Ukraine policy and Russia policy.

The Kyiv Independent: How can Europe avoid sliding into populism? How can the continent avoid falling into the same trap as the U.S.?

Timothy Garton Ash: I would say the forces of integration and disintegration in Europe are quite finely balanced at the moment.

We have to be tough on populism and tough on the causes of populism. We have to fight the nationalist populist and make a convincing case to our public for a different approach.

But we also have to understand why they continue to get large numbers of votes. For example, the sense that large parts of our societies have been both economically and culturally neglected in the name of liberalism.

And we need to show that we care, we're actually doing something for them economically, that culturally we don't just care about specific minorities in the name of multiculturalism, but we actually care about everyone in our societies.

It's pretty tough to do those two things at the same time, and also build up our defense spending and our support for Ukraine.

The Kyiv Independent: In your book, Homelands, you talk about different definitions of Europe. You say that some European nations that went through dictatorships see Europe as a sort of community of democratic, liberal ideals that they seek to return to. And that's certainly true for Ukraine, as we've seen during the EuroMaidan Revolution. But if Europe and the West are indeed moving away from these ideals, how will that impact Ukraine's path toward democracy?

Timothy Garton Ash: There's always been an anti-liberal Europe, as well as a liberal Europe throughout European history. And it's always been a great mistake to believe that the liberal Europe has prevailed once and for all. By the way, there are also liberal and anti-liberal forces in Ukraine, let's make no mistake about that.

The two things are intimately connected. It's very difficult to imagine Ukraine making a successful transition to a prosperous, sovereign, democratic European future if Europe is disintegrating next door. It's quite difficult to imagine a successful, liberal, democratic, integrated Europe if Ukraine is disintegrating next door.

Both because of the security and migration challenges, but also because we have, in a way, staked our European reputation now on Ukraine. European integration and Ukrainian integration, or European disintegration and Ukrainian disintegration.

But this won't be decided in the next few months. I would say, let's talk again towards the end of the 2020s, and we'll see which tendencies have prevailed.

The Kyiv Independent: Since we are obviously heading toward even more challenging times, can history give us hope or teach us lessons about how democracy can persevere under these challenges?

Timothy Garton Ash: It's going to give us both hope and warnings.

The warning is that just when everybody takes things for granted, they start going wrong. The analogy there would be Europe before 1914. In a way, Europe — certainly before 2014, but arguably up to 2022 — was assuming that it would just be more peaceful summers.

The hope is that we already have examples of successful liberal fightback. The Polish (2023 parliamentary) election is a classic example of a (country) which had nearly gone in the direction of Hungary and an electoral-authoritarian, non-liberal regime, and then it came back.

The larger lesson is that you have these wave movements in history. We had what I would call a liberal democratic revolution across Europe and much of the world from the early 1970s to the 2000s. Now we have an anti-liberal counter-revolution. But with time, people start discovering that that doesn't deliver either.

In fact, it delivers even less. And if you look at the enormous demonstrations in Serbia, large demonstrations in Hungary in support of an opposition candidate, and in Turkey after the imprisonment of Mr. (Ekrem) Imamoglu, you see that the fightback also comes from the countries that have gone authoritarian.

How much does a Russian drone attack on Ukraine cost? The question is more complicated than it sounds

Beginning overnight on Saturday, May 24, Russia rained down nearly a thousand drones and missiles on villages and cities across Ukraine in three nights of large-scale aerial attacks, as civilians spent hours sheltering underground. Russia’s bombardment killed more than a dozen people and injured dozens more, in one of

The Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta

Note from the author:

Hi, this is Martin Fornusek. I hope you enjoyed this interview.

To underscore its main points, we are facing one of the most challenging periods in history, and the actions of every one of us matter. Our team strives every day to bring you in-depth insights into Russia's ongoing war and Ukraine's resistance, but we wouldn't be able to do so without the support of readers like you. To help us continue in this work, please consider supporting our reporting.

Thank you very much.

May 29, 2025 1:26pm

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Reading Time: 4 minutes

Ben Borges

Brian Dooley is a Senior Advisor at Washington-based NGO Human Rights First and Honorary Professor of Practice at Queen’s University, Belfast. He specializes in working with human rights activists in war and other conflict zones and is a regular visitor to Kharkiv. 

For a while this May, international attention was back on Ukraine for the few days of peace talks in Turkey.

It gave self-important commentators all over the world who have never been to Ukraine the chance to share their views on how the war should end, what would be fair terms for a settlement, and how much territory Russia should keep.

Social media, newspapers, radio, and TV shows in Western Europe and the United States were full of these uninformed opinions. Few of those discussing Ukraine have ever been there, fewer still to the eastern front to see the reality of what three — or eleven — years of constant Russian attacks look like up close.

There is a much-ignored old journalism rule that says when a place is in the news, Unless You’re From There, Live There, Or Have Spent Years Writing About It, you really should think twice about offering an opinion.

I know I barely qualify — I’ve made 19 trips to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion of February 2022 and half a dozen visits before that. In total, I’ve spent around seven months of the last three years in Ukraine, mostly in Kharkiv. It doesn’t make me an expert, but I get some sense of how distorted and ignorant many international views are of the eastern front.

Kharkiv is largely a blind spot for foreign diplomats and international NGOs. Few people from embassies visit, citing security concerns. When I complain to diplomats about them not going to Kharkiv, they wring their hands and say, “But we’re not allowed to.”

But these governments and other organizations are making a choice not to send their officials to visit Kharkiv and elsewhere in the east. I tell them it’s not hard, that several trains a day leave from Kyiv to Kharkiv. But — with some notable exceptions — the oblast is routinely ignored, and so what is happening there just isn’t seen or appreciated.

This issue hit a nerve during the February 28 White House press conference when President Trump and Vice-President Vance ambushed President Zelenskyy. “Have you ever been to Ukraine to see the problems we have?” an exasperated Zelenskyy asked Vance who, of course, has never seen firsthand what’s happening in Ukraine. 

As Kharkiv Mayor Igor Terekhov says, “We have many people supporting us, but they do not have the courage to come to Kharkiv.” Nothing beats the eyewitness experience, of seeing what’s left of Kupiansk now, of what towns and villages look like after Russian occupation, of how volunteers across the Kharkiv city and region are providing humanitarian aid despite a severe lack of resources.

If international organisations and foreign diplomats went to Kharkiv, they would see for themselves what’s being done, and how these activists deserve to be funded and protected. They would see how much local energy is focused on helping the vulnerable, how volunteer evacuation teams risk their lives every day to get civilians from the frontline, how people are devoting their days to helping others. 

This isn’t what British Prime Minister Starmer, French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk got to see on their day trip to Kyiv before the Istanbul talks, but this is the reality for many in the east of Ukraine.

Much international media analysis rarely goes beyond what’s happening at a political level in Kyiv or beyond personal theories of what a peace deal should look like.

God save Kharkiv from armchair experts in the West who think “the reality” is that Russia should be rewarded for its invasions of Ukraine, that Ukrainians should “face facts,” and that Russia should get to keep the territories it illegally occupies.

It’s time they got off their asses, got on some buses and trains, listened to locals in Kharkiv, and saw the truth for themselves.

Opinion pieces reflect the thoughts of their authors and do not reflect Gwara Media’s views.

Read more

• “To believe Russia is to disrespect yourself.” Military in Kharkiv Oblast on Russia once again violating ceasefire they declared
• Kremlin propaganda finds voice in Europe’s alternative media. Ukraine shares experience in how to counter it

The post Opinion: God save Kharkiv from armchair experts in the West appeared first on Gwara Media.

May 29, 2025 12:40pm

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

NATO wants Germany to contribute seven more brigades, or roughly 40,000 troops, to boost collective defense against Russia, Bloomberg and Reuters reported on May 28, citing their sources.

The news comes amid mounting tensions between the alliance and Russia and an increasingly uncertain U.S. commitment to European security.

The alliance’s overall demand for the number of brigades provided by member states could go from 80 to between 120 and 130, an undisclosed senior official told Reuters.

Germany agreed to provide 10 brigades to NATO by 2030. It currently fields nine brigades — each comprising around 5,000 soldiers — including one new formation stationed in Lithuania.

Though no firm date for implementing the changes has been set, 2030 has been mentioned as a preferred deadline, Bloomberg reported.

Allied defense ministers are expected to discuss the matter during a meeting in Brussels next week.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted European countries to hike defense spending in order to revive their military capabilities, which atrophied after decades of disarmament following the Cold War.

The matter gained more urgency after signals that the U.S., the most powerful military in NATO, plans to scale down its presence in Europe as President Donald Trump shifts strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region.

Ukrainian foreign intelligence (SZRU) chief Oleh Ivashchenko recently warned that Russia will be able to replenish its forces between two and four years after the war in Ukraine, allowing it to launch aggression against Europe.

If Germany sends Taurus missiles to Ukraine, Russia has a major Crimean Bridge problem

Latest: Germany pledges 5 billion euros in new aid to Ukraine, no Taurus missiles announced A statement from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on May 26 about long-range strikes inside Russia resurrected a long-held hope in Ukraine — that Berlin is finally about to send Kyiv its Taurus missiles. “There are no

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

May 29, 2025 11:25am

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

Russia has concentrated a sufficient amount of forces in Kursk Oblast to potentially launch an attack on Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said on May 29.

The statement comes amid warnings of a new possible Russian offensive this summer as U.S.-mediated peace efforts have failed to produce a ceasefire deal.

Russia has become increasingly active in Sumy Oblast after mostly pushing out Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian authorities recently confirmed that Russian forces captured four Sumy Oblast villages close to the border: Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka.

Speaking on national television, Demchenko said Russia began amassing forces when it attempted to push Ukrainian troops out of Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine launched its operation in August 2024.

Russia continues to maintain a force in Kursk Oblast, and Ukraine periodically detects a “certain change in the number of both soldiers and equipment in this area,” the spokesperson said.

Russia “has enough forces there (in Kursk Oblast) to carry out operations against our border and attempt to attack the territory of Ukraine,” he continued.

The remarks came days after President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia is accumulating 50,000 troops near Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy Oblast, seeking to create a 10-kilometer buffer zone in the area.

According to Kyiv, Russia planned to launch an offensive into Sumy Oblast already back in 2024, but the plan was disrupted by Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast. Moscow has repeatedly indicated plans to create a buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia in the area.

Trump holds off on sanctions to push Ukraine-Russia peace efforts

U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 28 that he has not yet imposed new sanctions on Russia because he believes a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine may be within reach.

The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova

May 29, 2025 10:49am

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Reading Time: 3 minutes

Ben Borges

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov presented to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio Moscow’s “specific proposals” for the next round of peace talks with Ukraine, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced on May 29.

The two diplomats held a phone call on May 28, the day when Russia proposed holding negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 in a follow-up to the first round on May 16.

Lavrov also “informed Marco Rubio about implementing the May 19 agreements between President of Russia Vladimir Putin and President of the United States Donald Trump,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

Trump and Putin held a phone call on May 19, during which the Russian leader again rejected a truce and pushed for maximalist demands, but also voiced his readiness to negotiate a “memorandum regarding a potential future peace treaty."

During the call with Lavrov, Rubio stressed Trump’s “intention to quickly bring the Ukraine conflict to an end and expressed Washington’s readiness to help the sides to bring their positions closer together,” according to the Russian readout.

While initially reluctant to criticize Putin, Trump adopted an increasingly critical tone toward the Russian leader in recent days as Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities intensify and the Kremlin continues to reject calls for a ceasefire.

Kyiv and its European partners have urged the U.S. to impose additional sanctions to pressure Moscow to agree to a truce. Trump has refused to take the step so far, saying he is “close to getting a deal” and does not want to “screw it up” by fresh sanctions.

“We’re going to find out very soon. It’ll take about two weeks, or a week and a half,” Trump told reporters this week, responding to a question on whether Putin wants to end the war. He added that Washington would “respond a little bit differently” if it appears that Moscow is stalling.

“They seem to want to do something. But until the document is signed, I can’t tell you… I’m very disappointed at what happened. A couple of nights now where people were killed in the middle of what you would call a negotiation."

Russia vowed to present its peace memorandum but has yet to deliver, drawing rebuke from Ukrainian, European, and U.S. officials. Trump has also repeatedly signaled he would exit the peace efforts unless progress is achieved soon.

Reuters reported that Putin’s conditions for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine include a written pledge by NATO not to accept more Eastern European members, lifting of some sanctions, and Ukraine’s neutral status, among other demands.

Ukraine war latest: Moscow proposes next round of Russia-Ukraine talks on June 2 in Istanbul

* Moscow proposes next round of Russia-Ukraine talks on June 2 in Istanbul * Ukrainian drones hit Russian cruise missile factory, SBU source says, in one of largest reported strikes of full-scale war * 11 more Ukrainian Children rescued from Russian-occupied territories, Yermak’s advisor says * ‘We’ll know in two weeks’ if Putin serious

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

May 29, 2025 8:51am

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

Telegram and Elon Musk’s xAI will enter a one-year partnership, integrating the Grok chatbot into the messaging app, Telegram CEO Pavel Durov announced on May 28.

Musk, the world’s richest man who also owns Tesla and SpaceX, commented that “no deal has been signed,” prompting Durov to clarify that the deal has been agreed in “principle” with “formalities pending."

“This summer, Telegram users will gain access to the best AI technology on the market,” Durov said.

"Elon Musk and I have agreed to a one-year partnership to bring xAI’s chatbot Grok to our billion+ users and integrate it across all Telegram apps."

The announcement comes as Musk announces his exit from his role in the Trump administration to focus on his business ventures, many of which saw their profits drop in the past few months.

Musk founded xAI in 2023, and earlier this year, another of his ventures, X Corp., which operates the X social platform, acquired the AI company. Grok is xAI’s flagship project and has already been integrated into X.

Musk’s takeover of X saw the social platform, formerly known as Twitter, become the leading source of disinformation, EU officials said. The Grok chatbot also faced scrutiny recently after posting unprompted comments on the topic of so-called “white genocide” in South Africa, Musk’s home country.

Durov, the Russian-born founder of Telegram, currently resides in Dubai and holds Russian, Emirati, and French citizenship. He is under investigation in France for criminal activity on his messaging app.

Durov has claimed he is a pariah and has been effectively exiled from Russia, but it was reported last year that he had visited Russia over 60 times since leaving the country, according to Kremlingram, a Ukrainian group that campaigns against the use of Telegram in Ukraine.

Telegram remains one of the most popular social media platforms among Ukrainians. A September 2023 poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology indicated that 44% of Ukrainians use Telegram to receive information and news.

Ukrainian officials have warned about security risks associated with using Telegram, leading to restrictions on its use by civil servants and politicians.

Trump holds off on sanctions to push Ukraine-Russia peace efforts

U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 28 that he has not yet imposed new sanctions on Russia because he believes a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine may be within reach.

The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova

May 29, 2025 8:28am

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

A U.S. federal court overturned on May 28 President Donald Trump’s tariffs on dozens of countries, including those affecting trade with Ukraine, according to the U.S. Court of International Trade’s ruling.

Trump announced a new sweeping tariff policy on April 2 as part of what he called “Liberation Day,” framing the tariff regime as a bid to revitalize U.S. manufacturing and fight back against foreign exploitation.

Ukraine was hit with a 10% blanket tariff on its exports, lower than the 20% imposed on the European Union. Increased rates targeted countries where the U.S. has the largest trade deficits, notably China.

Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and Cuba were not included.

The court ruled that the federal law allowing the president to impose tariffs, embargoes, and sanctions during national emergencies “does not authorize the president to impose unbounded tariffs.”

The ruling cited the U.S. Constitution, saying that it grants Congress sole authority over international trade, which is not superseded by the president’s emergency economic powers.

The court struck down the 10% tariffs applied to all U.S. trading partners to address the trade deficit, along with Trump’s proposed “reciprocal” tariffs of 20–50% on over 60 countries. This move means that the court would also block tariffs on trade with Ukraine.

Additionally, the court overturned Trump’s executive orders imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and a 20% tariff on Chinese goods.

A 10% blanket tariff on its exports was still a setback for a country at war. Kyiv’s metallurgy sector, a major source of Ukrainian exports to the U.S., was already impacted by a 25% tariff imposed in March.

In 2023, Ukrainian exports to the U.S. totaled just $874 million, while imports from the U.S. reached $3.4 billion. The overall trade volume has declined in recent years, but the tariffs could deepen the imbalance, especially if they trigger broader protectionist measures globally.

Yuliia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s Economy Minister, called the U.S. tariffs announced in early April “difficult, but not critical,” saying Kyiv remained focused on long-term economic resilience and international cooperation.

Ukraine war latest: Moscow proposes next round of Russia-Ukraine talks on June 2 in Istanbul

* Moscow proposes next round of Russia-Ukraine talks on June 2 in Istanbul * Ukrainian drones hit Russian cruise missile factory, SBU source says, in one of largest reported strikes of full-scale war * 11 more Ukrainian Children rescued from Russian-occupied territories, Yermak’s advisor says * ‘We’ll know in two weeks’ if Putin serious

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

May 29, 2025 7:49am

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Ben Borges

Elon Musk announced on May 29 that his time as a special government employee in the Trump administration is coming to an end, thanking U.S. President Donald Trump for the “opportunity to reduce wasteful spending."

The billionaire, who oversaw the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) massive layoffs and cuts across government agencies, said the department’s mission will continue.

“The DOGE mission will only strengthen over time as it becomes a way of life throughout the government,” Musk wrote on his social platform X.

The later days of Musk’s 130-day tenure, which is set to conclude on May 30, were accompanied by growing tensions between the world’s richest man and senior members of the Trump administration, reportedly including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Musk also criticized a massive Trump-backed domestic policy bill passed by the Republicans in the House of Representatives last week, saying the legislation “increases the budget deficit, not just decreases it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing."

A White House official confirmed to Reuters that the owner of Tesla, X, and SpaceX is departing the administration. His exit, described as quick and unceremonious, was reportedly decided on a senior staff level and without a conversation with Trump, who previously repeatedly praised the billionaire.

The businessman was one of the most visible figures of Trump’s election campaign and the early days of his administration, leading the effort to dismantle the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the U.S.’s chief foreign aid agency.

USAID was vital in providing humanitarian relief worldwide and funded thousands of programs supporting human rights, democracy, education, civil society, and infrastructure development.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, USAID has provided Ukraine with $2.6 billion in humanitarian aid, $5 billion in development assistance, and more than $30 billion in direct budget support, helping to rebuild schools after Russian attacks, pay for bomb shelters, advanced medical equipment for hospitals and much more.

Musk eventually scaled down his public presence amid dropping popularity ratings and slumping Tesla profits.

The businessman has also been vocal on the Russia-Ukraine war. While initially declaring support for the invaded country and providing his Starlink satellite communications to Ukraine, he gradually adopted pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian talking points.

Musk spread narratives that President Volodymyr Zelensky has minimal support in the country, despite numerous polls showing otherwise, and accused the Ukrainian president of perpetuating a “never-ending draft meat grinder."

The billionaire has also repeatedly campaigned against military aid for Kyiv, claiming it only prolongs the war.

Trump admits to protecting Russia from ‘really bad things’ during Ukraine peace talks

Trump’s comments come amid growing pressure on the U.S. administration to respond to escalating Russian attacks.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy