Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping hailed their countries' relationship on May 8, vowing to increase cooperation in all areas, including military ties.

In a joint statement released during Xi’s visit to Moscow amid the May 9 Victory Day celebrations, the two countries promised to “strengthen coordination in order to decisively counter Washington’s course of ‘dual containment’ of Russia and China."

In a show of unity against U.S. President Donald Trump, the two countries disavowed “the promotion of hostile approaches toward Russia and China by third countries in various regions of the world, as well as the discrediting of Russian-Chinese cooperation."

The two countries also vowed to “contribute to the establishment of peace in Ukraine,” while addressing the “root causes” of the war.

The statement on the Ukraine war alludes to phrasing that Russia has regularly used to justify its full-scale invasion, falsely claiming that it was pushed into war with Ukraine over NATO’s perceived expansion.

China has strengthened ties with Russia since the Kremlin launched its full-scale war against Ukraine, becoming Moscow’s leading supplier of dual-use goods that bolster Russia’s defense industry.

While China has positioned itself as a potential mediator in the war, it has simultaneously criticized the U.S. and its allies for “exacerbating” the war by supplying weapons to Ukraine. NATO has labeled China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s aggression.

President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on April 17 that China is supplying weapons to the Russian military. His statement marks Kyiv’s first confirmation that Beijing supports Russia’s war effort by providing weapons.

Xi said earlier in the day on May 8 that he was pleased to take part in the Victory Day celebrations and that “China and Russia are ready to defend the truth about the history of World War II."

The Chinese president’s visit to Russia is expected to last until May 10. During this time, the Chinese and Russian sides will hold talks in various formats, both between the two leaders and between delegations, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

During his three and a half hour meeting with the Chinese leader, Putin expressed his willingness to pay another official visit to China and emphasized that the governments of both countries are working to fully develop their bilateral relations.

Xi’s presence in Moscow serves as an important boost to Putin amid ongoing negotiations brokered by the United States to put an end to the war in Ukraine.

While the Trump administration initially sought to overhaul relations with Russia, Trump has reportedly grown increasingly frustrated at the lack of progress being made on negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. On April 26, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be “tapping me along” in negotiations.

On May 8, U.S. Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that the U.S. would be ready to “walk away” from the negotiating table if it does not see Russia making progress in negotiation to end the war.

Turkey, China may serve as potential peace talk ‘mediator’ if US pulls out, Polish FM says

“There is Turkey, which maintains channels of communication. And then, above all, there is the People’s Republic of China, which, more than anyone else, has the means to make (Russian President Vladimir) Putin come to the negotiating table and soften his demands,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on May 8.

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on May 8 that he believed either Turkey or China would serve as a capable “mediator” if the United States pulls out of negotiations to end the war.

Speaking to reporters following an EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Warsaw, Sikorski said that he hope the U.S. succeeds in “mediation efforts” between Russia and Ukraine, European Pravda reported.

“But if this path turns out to be unsuccessful, there are other candidates,” Sikorski added. “There is Turkey, which maintains channels of communication. And then, above all, there is the People’s Republic of China, which, more than anyone else, has the means to make (Russian President Vladimir) Putin come to the negotiating table and soften his demands."

Sikorski’s comments come as the United States has reportedly grown frustrated at the lack of progress being made on negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. On April 26, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be “tapping me along” in negotiations.

On May 8, U.S. Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that the U.S. would be ready to “walk away” from the negotiating table if it does not see Russia making progress in negotiation to end the war.

Turkey has positioned itself as a potential mediator in Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine by maintaining diplomatic and economic ties with both nations. Leveraging its strategic position and influence in the Black Sea region, Turkey has facilitated negotiations and grain exports, while expressing willingness to participate in ceasefire monitoring.

While China has also positioned itself as a potential mediator in the war, it has simultaneously criticized the U.S. and its allies for “exacerbating” the war by supplying weapons to Ukraine. NATO has labeled China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s aggression.

President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on April 17 that China is supplying weapons to the Russian military. His statement marks Kyiv’s first confirmation that Beijing supports Russia’s war effort by providing weapons.

Despite Vance’s comment, following a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump seemingly contradicted Vance on May 8, saying that he was “committed” to securing a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

“As President, I will stay committed to securing Peace between Russia and Ukraine, together with the Europeans, and a Lasting Peace it will be,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Hopefully, an acceptable ceasefire will be observed, and both Countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations. If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions,” Trump added.

Trump calls for ‘unconditional ceasefire,’ committed to ‘securing peace’ between Ukraine, Russia

US President Donald Trump on May 8 called for a “30-day unconditional ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia. Writing on Truth Social, Trump expressed his hope for “an acceptable ceasefire,” with both countries “held accountable for respecting the sanctity of… direct negotiations.”

The Kyiv IndependentLucy Pakhnyuk

The United States will be ready to “walk away” from the negotiating table if it does not see Russia making progress in negotiation to end the war, U.S. Vice President JD Vance told Fox News on May 8.

“What would bother me is if we conclude that the Russians are not engaging in negotiations in good faith. And if that happen, yeah, we’re going to walk away,” Vance said in an interview.

The United States has reportedly grown frustrated at the lack of progress being made on negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. On April 26, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be “tapping me along” in negotiations.

Despite growing frustrations from the White House, Vance said that the fact that the parties are offering proposals to one another is a sign of “progress."

“We knew that Russia would ask for too much because Russia’s perspective on the ground is that they’re winning,” Vance said. “Our attitude is we don’t want Ukraine to collapse. We obviously want Ukraine to remain a sovereign country. But Russia can’t expect to be given territory they haven’t event conquered yet."

“We knew that the Russians' first offer would be too much. We knew that they would ask for more than what was reasonable to give, that’s how negotiations often work,” Vance continued.

Vance warned that Russia and Ukraine “are going to be left to settle this thing without the advise and the mediation of the United States,” if Moscow continues to stall talks.

Despite Vance’s comment, following a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump seemingly contradicted Vance, saying that he was “committed” to securing a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

“As President, I will stay committed to securing Peace between Russia and Ukraine, together with the Europeans, and a Lasting Peace it will be,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Hopefully, an acceptable ceasefire will be observed, and both Countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations. If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions,” Trump added.

U.S. government officials have reportedly prepared a new sanctions package against Russia, although Trump has yet to make a move on implementing the measures.

Trump calls for ‘unconditional ceasefire,’ committed to ‘securing peace’ between Ukraine, Russia

US President Donald Trump on May 8 called for a “30-day unconditional ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia. Writing on Truth Social, Trump expressed his hope for “an acceptable ceasefire,” with both countries “held accountable for respecting the sanctity of… direct negotiations.”

The Kyiv IndependentLucy Pakhnyuk

United States President Donald Trump on May 8 called for a “30-day unconditional ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia.

Writing on Truth Social following a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump expressed his hope for “an acceptable ceasefire,” with both countries “held accountable for respecting the sanctity of… direct negotiations."

“If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions,” Trump threatened.

Separately, in a recent interview, Trump said that U.S. may consider implementing additional sanctions against Russia if it does not reach a peace deal with Ukraine. U.S. lawmakers have preemptively prepared a comprehensive sanctions bill that would impose new penalties on Russia.

“As president, I will stay committed to securing peace between Russia and Ukraine, together with the Europeans… This ceasefire must ultimately build toward a peace agreement,” Trump added, expressing his support for an end to the war.

Trump’s post follows a “constructive” phone call with Zelensky. During the call, the leaders discussed the war, diplomatic efforts, and “a real and lasting ceasefire."

Recent months have seen a series of failed peace talks and ceasefires, including one initially brokered by the U.S. in March. While Ukraine immediately agreed to the ceasefire, Russia repeated violated it.

Later, in April, Russia declared a ceasefire over the Easter holiday, though Zelensky accused Moscow of nearly 3,000 violations between April 19 and April 21.

Russia has repeatedly proclaimed its supposed readiness for peace talks while simultaneously pushing for maximalist demands. Kyiv has dismissed these declarations , noting that Russian forces have only intensified their attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns.

Majority of Ukrainians unwilling to trade territory or Western path for peace, poll shows

The survey, conducted between April 24 and May 4, shows that 56.9% of respondents would not be willing to compromise on either territorial integrity or Ukraine’s pro-Western direction in any potential talks with Moscow.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with United States President Donald Trump on a phone call on May 8 to discuss the war, continued pressure on Russia, and a potential ceasefire.

Zelensky reported on the details of phone call during his nightly address.

According to Zelensky, the two leaders had a “good conversation” that was both “warm and constructive.” They congratulated each other and their respective nations with Victory in Europe Day – commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

Zelensky commented on how the defeat of Nazism, as well as the cooperation between Allied nations, laid the foundation for peace, international law, and normal life for so many countries.

“Now, this life must be protected and restored – rebuilt from the ruins after Russian strikes. Just as before, we must work together to bring peace,” Zelensky said.

Zelensky and Trump also discussed joint actions, including US support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia. They also discussed the frontline situation, diplomatic efforts, and “a real and lasting ceasefire.”

“Ukraine is ready for a full ceasefire starting right now, from this very moment,” Zelensky said. “A ceasefire, lasting and reliable, will be a real indicator of movement toward peace."

He also noted the critical role that the United States can play in securing peace: “America can help… the world needs America now just as it did eighty years ago."

The conversation between Zelensky and Trump follows recent attempts by the US to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia.

Nearly two months ago, Ukraine accepted a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire, but Moscow rejected it, demanding a complete halt on military aid to Ukraine.

Russia has repeatedly proclaimed its supposed readiness for peace talks while simultaneously pushing for maximalist demands. Kyiv has dismissed these declarations as a propaganda stunt, noting that Russian forces have only intensified their attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns.

Ukraine war latest: Over 100 clashes reported on the front line since Russia’s Victory Day ceasefire began

Key developments on May 8: * Over 100 clashes reported on the front line since Russia’s Victory Day ceasefire began * Ukraine’s parliament ratifies minerals deal between Washington, Kyiv * Russia has damaged, destroyed over 2,300 medical infrastructure facilities since beginning of full-scale invasion, health ministry says * Russia’s ballistic missiles make

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Key developments on May 8:

• Over 100 clashes reported on the front line since Russia’s Victory Day ceasefire began
• Ukraine’s parliament ratifies minerals deal between Washington, Kyiv
• Russia has damaged, destroyed over 2,300 medical infrastructure facilities since beginning of full-scale invasion, health ministry says
• Russia’s ballistic missiles make April deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since last fall, UN reports
• Majority of Ukrainians unwilling to trade territory or Western path for peace, poll shows

Ukrainian forces faced 117 combat clashes across the front line on the first day of Russia’s self-declared Victory Day “humanitarian ceasefire,” the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on May 8.

Despite the Kremlin’s announcement of a May 8–11 truce, heavy fighting continued in multiple regions throughout the day. The General Staff said that most battles occurred in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian troops launched 41 assaults on the Pokrovsk front alone.

Pokrovsk, located about 70 kilometers northwest of occupied Donetsk, remains one of the most fiercely contested sectors of the front, where Russia has concentrated its main offensive efforts since March.

Clashes also took place near Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, and Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, while Russian troops continued attacks around Siversk, Torske, and in Kharkiv Oblast. Border settlements in Sumy Oblast suffered from shelling and guided bomb strikes.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian regional authorities reported at least seven civilian deaths and 31 injuries over the past 24 hours across Ukraine. Some of the attacks took place after the start of Moscow’s unilaterally declared truce. Russian strikes targeted homes, vehicles, and public spaces in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

The Victory Day truce is the latest in a series of ceasefire initiatives announced by Moscow, all of which Russia has violated.

Earlier this month, Russia declared a ceasefire over the Easter holiday, though President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of nearly 3,000 violations between April 19 and April 21. Ukraine has also said that Russian forces repeatedly breached a partial truce on attacks against energy facilities brokered by the U.S. on March 25.

Russia has repeatedly proclaimed its supposed readiness for peace talks while simultaneously pushing for maximalist demands. Kyiv has dismissed these declarations as a propaganda stunt, noting that Russian forces have only intensified their attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns.

‘The front is noisy’ — for Ukraine’s soldiers, Russia’s Victory Day ‘ceasefire’ is yet another sham

Moscow’s self-declared truce which came into force at midnight on May 8 is not being felt on the front lines, Ukrainian soldiers have told the Kyiv Independent, reporting numerous cases of Russian military activity throughout the day. “There is no truce. There is shelling, artillery, drone and FPV (bomb) drops,

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Ukraine’s parliament ratifies minerals deal between Washington, Kyiv

The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, ratified the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal on May 8, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak said.

The document was supported by 338 MPs.

The agreement, signed on April 30, establishes a joint investment fund between Kyiv and Washington and grants the U.S. special access to projects developing Ukraine’s natural resources.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the ratification of what he described as the most promising economic agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. to date. “This is joint investment cooperation with the U.S. for decades to come,” Zelensky said.

“I expect the ratification law to be submitted from the Verkhovna Rada to my Office soon. Once the legal procedures are complete, we will be able to begin establishing the Fund,” he wrote on X.

Following the signing of the agreement between Kyiv and Washington, the parties did not disclose details on how the Reconstruction Investment Fund will work, except that it will be managed in an equal partnership, with both sides contributing.

Earlier, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that future military aid from the U.S. could count as contributions to the fund, but previous assistance is not included.

Who’s attending Moscow’s Victory Day parade? The Kremlin has published a guest list ahead of May 9

Russia’s annual Victory Day parade is set to take place in Moscow on May 9, in a week dramtically marked by a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on the city. Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9, which mark the Soviet Union’s role in defeating Nazi Germany in World

The Kyiv IndependentNatalia Yermak

Russia has damaged, destroyed over 2,300 medical infrastructure facilities since beginning of full-scale invasion, health ministry says

Russian forces have damaged or destroyed more than 2,300 medical infrastructure facilities since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Health Ministry said on May 7.

Some 2020 medical facilities were partially damaged, while another 305 were completely destroyed, the ministry’s statement read. Medical facilities in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts were most affected.

Throughout the all-out war, one of the most destructive Russian attacks on medical facilities in terms of casualties was on the Ohmatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv.

Russian forces hit Ukraine’s largest children’s medical center on July 8, killing two adults and injuring at least 34 people, including nine children. Footage showed that the building suffered a direct hit by a Russian missile rather than being damaged by fallen debris.

The missile, fired from a plane of the 22nd Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Division, kept maneuvering and changing its flight path, indicating an intention to bypass Ukrainian air defenses and hit the medical facility, according to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU).

Apart from hospitals, outpatient clinics, and maternity hospitals, Russian troops regularly attack ambulances. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, 116 ambulances have been damaged, 274 destroyed, and 80 seized.

Ukraine and its international partners have managed to fully rebuild 700 medical facilities and partially restore 312, including critical hospitals and primary health care centers in the frontline regions.

Will Trump help Putin escape punishment for his crimes in Ukraine?

Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. took the unprecedented step of deepening cooperation with international courts of law. Washington has never been party to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the International Criminal Court (ICC), and U.S. policy towards the Hague-based international tribunal has varied widely

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Russia’s ballistic missiles make April deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since last fall, UN reports

Russia killed 209 and injured 1,146 civilians during April, making it the deadliest month and the one with the highest number of injured since September 2024, the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) reported on May 8.

At least 19 children were killed and 78 injured in April, the highest verified monthly number of child casualties since June 2022.

“One of the main reasons for the sharp rise in civilian casualties was the intensified use of ballistic missiles in major cities across the country,” Danielle Bell, head of HRMMU, said in a statement accompanying the report.

The high number of civilian casualties in April reflects a broader trend of increased harm to civilians in 2025 compared to 2024. Between January and April 2025, 664 civilians were killed and 3,425 injured, a 59% increase compared to the same period in 2024, the report read.

In April, 97% of civilian casualties were recorded in Ukraine-controlled territory. Almost half of all cases were caused by Russian missile attacks or shelling. Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, and Kharkiv suffered the most damage over the past month.

Attacks using short-range drones near the contact line accounted for 23% of civilian casualties during the month. Meanwhile, in early May, the trend of targeting large Ukrainian cities with loitering munitions also continued, according to the report.

‘Clearly, Ukraine is holding cards’ — economist on why US pressure won’t force Kyiv to concede

If Ukraine’s military resistance to Russia’s full-scale invasion stunned the world, its economic resilience in the face of a larger, better-equipped enemy is a lesser-known story of the war. A combination of rapid state expansion, prudent monetary policy, active civil society in Ukraine, and crucial external funding from

The Kyiv IndependentLiliane Bivings

Majority of Ukrainians unwilling to trade territory or Western path for peace, poll shows

The majority of Ukrainians say they are not ready to give up any territory or abandon the country’s Western course in negotiations with Russia, according to a new nationwide poll published on May 8 by the Razumkov Center, a Kyiv-based public policy think tank.

The survey, conducted between April 24 and May 4 in partnership with the Kyiv Security Forum, shows that 56.9% of respondents would not be willing to compromise on either territorial integrity or Ukraine’s pro-Western direction in any potential talks with Moscow.

Only 11.1% said they would consider ceding territory, while 14.7% would be open to changing Ukraine’s geopolitical course.

About two-thirds (66.5%) of Ukrainians believe Russia would violate any peace agreement and resume its attacks when convenient, the poll showed. Just 10.8% said they thought both sides would likely adhere to a signed peace deal.

Skepticism also prevails when it comes to specific concessions. Over half of respondents (52.3%) said Ukraine should not agree to abandon its NATO aspirations, even if it were a condition of a peace treaty. Some 81% opposed reducing the size of the country’s armed forces.

Some 60.6% of Ukrainians believe a military victory over Russia is possible. At the same time, 54.1% said they do not believe a peace agreement can be reached in the near future.

Support for Ukraine’s integration with the West also remains strong. More than half (57.2%) favor the European model of development, compared to just 0.7% who prefer a Russian-leaning model.

Note from the author:

Ukraine War Latest is put together by the Kyiv Independent news desk team, who keep you informed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. If you value our work and want to ensure we have the resources to continue, join the Kyiv Independent community.

Ukrainian forces faced 117 combat clashes across the front line on the first day of Russia’s self-declared Victory Day “humanitarian ceasefire,” the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on May 8.

Despite the Kremlin’s announcement of a May 8–11 truce, heavy fighting continued in multiple regions throughout the day. The General Staff said that most battles occurred in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian troops launched 41 assaults on the Pokrovsk front alone.

Pokrovsk, located about 70 kilometers northwest of occupied Donetsk, remains one of the most fiercely contested sectors of the front, where Russia has concentrated its main offensive efforts since March.

Clashes also took place near Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, and Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, while Russian troops continued attacks around Siversk, Torske, and in Kharkiv Oblast. Border settlements in Sumy Oblast suffered from shelling and guided bomb strikes.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian regional authorities reported at least seven civilian deaths and 31 injuries over the past 24 hours across Ukraine. Some of the attacks took place after the start of Moscow’s unilaterally declared truce. Russian strikes targeted homes, vehicles, and public spaces in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

The Victory Day truce is the latest in a series of ceasefire initiatives announced by Moscow, all of which Russia has violated.

Earlier this month, Russia declared a ceasefire over the Easter holiday, though President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of nearly 3,000 violations between April 19 and April 21. Ukraine has also said that Russian forces repeatedly breached a partial truce on attacks against energy facilities brokered by the U.S. on March 25.

Russia has repeatedly proclaimed its supposed readiness for peace talks while simultaneously pushing for maximalist demands. Kyiv has dismissed these declarations as a propaganda stunt, noting that Russian forces have only intensified their attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns.

Will Trump help Putin escape punishment for his crimes in Ukraine?

Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. took the unprecedented step of deepening cooperation with international courts of law. Washington has never been party to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the International Criminal Court (ICC), and U.S. policy towards the Hague-based international tribunal has varied widely

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Ukraine and the United States played a long game of cat and mouse, each trying to secure more favorable terms in the minerals deal.

Months of delays, disagreements, manipulations, and even a temporary suspension of aid led to a ratification of the deal by the Ukrainian legislature today.

338 out of 347 Ukrainian MPs voted in favor.

Now, only its implementation remains.

“This quick turn of events [ratification] means that we are, roughly speaking, serious and responsible. Ukraine does not renounce its commitments and demonstrates confidence and consistency in its actions,” Ivan Valiushko, an expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, explained in an interview to The Counteroffensive.

Despite lengthy negotiations and some public disagreements, Ukraine and the United States finally signed an agreement establishing a United States-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund on April 30.

Read more

Did a video authentically show President Donald Trump saying, of clashes between India and Pakistan in May 2025, "let 'em fight"? No, that's not true: The clip was authentic, but was recorded in 2019. Trump was speaking then in the context of conflict between ISIS and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The claim appeared in a May 6, 2025, post on X (archived here), which consisted of a text caption that read "...sir, what do you REALLY think about India and Pakistan?" and a video that showed Trump saying:

...they're fighting each other. I said "Why don't you let them fight? Why are we getting in the middle of it?" I said "Let 'em fight!"...

The clip can be viewed in full here:

"...sir, what do you REALLY think about India and Pakistan?" pic.twitter.com/um9xI7UWXR

-- il Donaldo Trumpo (@PapiTrumpo) May 6, 2025

In reality, that clip was recorded on January 2, 2019, and Trump was speaking about a completely different conflict - that between ISIS and the Taliban in Afghanistan:

Ukrainian Alina Petrauskaite has chosen to live her life in the service of God. Although she once dreamed of having a family, a deeper calling led her to the convent to serve as a nun.

In their daily prayers, many Catholic believers worldwide pray for Ukraine, and were previously led by Pope Francis until his death last month.

Now, during the election for the new pope, Alina and her fellow nuns are intensifying their prayers so that the cardinals can choose a good pope.

"We desire the Holy Spirit to show them who it should be," she said.

The death of Pope Francis has revived discussions about the Vatican's role in the world’s most pressing conflicts. In the case of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Holy See has long walked a diplomatic tightrope, criticized for ambiguity – yet it continues to maintain dialogue with both Kyiv and Moscow.

Unlike other world powers, the Vatican offers no weapons, only moral leverage — and increasingly, it is using it to help Ukraine reclaim prisoners, deported children, and even the remains of fallen soldiers.

With protocol-breaking moments like Zelenskyy’s placement at the papal funeral, quiet signals from Moscow – such as the Kremlin’s restrained reaction to papal appeals for peace – and even a brief, symbolic meeting with Trump, the Vatican is emerging as an unlikely but important ally for Ukraine — and a rare channel of dialogue in a polarized world.

Alina is a Roman Catholic nun who belongs to the Congregation of the Little Sisters of the Immaculate Heart of Mary. It was founded in Poland in 1888 and began operating in Ukraine in 1969. She and her fellow sisters serve God and do charitable work through social, educational, and pastoral activities. They do not wear traditional monastic habits like other nuns to stay closer to other people and serve among them.

Just like priests, nuns prepare for life in a monastery, which can take several years, gradually discerning their calling. After that, the nuns have to take three vows – of purity, poverty, and obedience – pledging to dedicate themselves to God, community, and service to others.

Alina now serves in Kyiv at the Catholic Media Centre. She is the editor-in-chief of the official website of the Roman Catholic Church in Ukraine. She has commented on Pope Francis' foreign trips, meetings, and solemn services on major holidays. They also cover the activities and life of the Roman Catholic Church in Ukraine.

Ukraine is a predominantly Orthodox country where traditional Catholicism represents a small share of the population – just 1 percent. In addition, about 9 percent of the population identify as Greek Catholics, mostly in western Ukraine. Most Ukrainians belong to Orthodox churches – around 70 percent.

But Christians and non-Christians all around the world are awaiting the election of the next pope – and its geopolitical consequences. Alina says she doesn’t focus on individual candidates — she believes that the most worthy one will be chosen.

The Pope is elected during a conclave, a secret vote of cardinals in the Sistine Chapel. Only cardinals under 80 can vote, and the winning candidate has to gain a majority of two-thirds of the votes in order to be elected. After a successful conclave, white smoke comes out of the Chapel's chimney, to signal that a new pope has been chosen.

Whoever the next Pope is, there will be consequences for Ukraine, as different candidates have different views on the war.

Possible Papal Candidates:

1. Pietro Parolin: Many believe that the most likely successor to Pope Francis is his former chief advisor, the Vatican Secretary of State. Parolin recognizes Ukraine's right to self-defense, but is cautious about Western military support for fear of escalation. In 2024, he visited Kyiv, and in 2025, he supported the idea of negotiations with Russia for a just and lasting peace.

   

2. Luis Antonio Tagle: The Filipino would be the first ever Asian pope if selected. Tagle has spoken about the war mainly in a humanitarian context, without mentioning Russia.

“No gun can kill hope, the goodness of the spirit in the human person. There are so many testimonies to this… The mission to always remind the world that every conflict, every disaster has a human face…. For example, the war in Ukraine and conflicts in other countries of the world are generally presented as political, military conflicts but people are forgotten!” said Tagle in an interview.

3. Matteo Zuppi: Zuppi – who was chosen by Pope Francis to lead an initiative for peace in Ukraine – has visited Kyiv and Moscow, but has avoided condemning Russian aggression, speaking instead of suffering and the need for peace. Like Tagle, he’s known for being progressive but also cautious in their statements about Ukraine and Russia.
   

4. Peter Tarkson: Hailing from Ghana, Tarkson avoids political statements. Calls for prayer for peace and often blames world leaders for nuclear threats, but does not directly condemn Russia.

“With war, everything is lost; but with peace, there is everything to gain. The devastation of Ukraine corresponds to Russia's wobbling economy, Germany's recession & U.S.A's mounting domestic debt etc. But talk about Economic malaise skips pain their economies cause in Ukraine,” Tarkson wrote on Twitter.

5. Péter Erdő: сlose to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban - a close ally of Russia. For example the cardinal has largely avoided critisizing Orban over democratic backsliding and rule-of-law concerns, including the controversial 2021 anti-LGBT law that closely mirrors Russian legislation, and shares his cautious rhetoric on the war.
   
   Although not openly pro-Russian, he refrains from criticizing Russia and maintains a dialogue with both Russian Orthodox Church and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.

6. Pierbattista Pizzaballa: Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pizzaballa expressed concern over the war in Ukraine. In 2022, he performed a rite of consecration of Ukraine and Russia to the Immaculate Heart of Mary – a symbolic request to help the two peoples to rebuild trust, without which, according to him, peace is impossible – and called for the restoration of trust between nations.

“So that they may listen to each other again, that she may help them to rebuild relationships of trust between them, without which there will be no future," said Pizzaballa in 2022.

The conclave will begin on May 7th, and many predict it will not last long, Andrii Yurash, Ukraine's Ambassador to the Holy See, explained that there are different views in the modern church.

"I think that in this situation, it would be more logical for the Church to choose someone who can represent and be acceptable to those groups that envision and plan the future development of the Church. So, a centrist would currently seem to have the strongest prospects," Yurash said.

Today’s cardinals are divided into different groups. Some seek to continue Pope Francis' socially progressive course, others want to return to traditional forms of church life, while some centrists try to combine these approaches, he told The Counteroffensive.

Far from the cardinals’ deliberations in Rome, Alina’s journey into religious life began in Kyiv.

The monk who founded this group believed that sisters should serve in the areas where they came from. That is why Alina continues her ministry in Ukraine.It wasn’t always easy for Alina to become a nun. Alina was baptised in a Catholic church. She attended church with her family only on major holidays. But her life changed when, at age 15, her friends invited her to participate in religious classes at St Alexander Church in the centre of Kyiv.

“At that time, being closer to the church, I realized that I also wanted to be like the nuns I had seen, that I wanted to be in the church like them, and serve God more in this way,” Alina told.

Since then, she has seen the Church as a place of personal faith and a global voice in the world’s most challenging moments.

The Vatican is not involved in military conflicts and does not support any side with arms. Instead, it acts as a moral mediator in wars and conflicts.

Although Alina mentioned that the Pope’s position may not directly influence the aid level, she believes it still matters.

“It’s not just about Pope Francis — this is a long-standing Vatican policy, developed over centuries, with its justification and tradition. Pope Francis, in particular, was more of a pastor at heart than a diplomat,” Alina explained.

Pope Francis's statements have often been quite controversial among Ukrainians. His messages about fraternal nations and the importance of a truce, even with territorial concessions from Ukraine, were not universally popular.

"They are brothers, cousins. Let them come to an understanding! War is always a defeat. Peace to the whole world!" said Pope Francis, addressing the bishops, clergy and religious of the French island of Corsica in December 2024.

“Perhaps we [Ukrainians] wanted to put our words in the pope's mouth and expected the pope to say precisely that. But we see that certain things have now opened up to what the pope did. I realized one thing: Evaluating the pope's words and actions is challenging because we don't know the truth and the mechanisms,” Alina told The Counteroffensive.

Russia has systematically taken steps to develop relations with the Holy See for centuries.

“It was [Francis’] dream because no pope had ever been to Moscow, and he wanted to establish closer contacts, ” Yurash said.

After 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and launched a war in Eastern Ukraine, the Vatican found itself in a difficult diplomatic position, trying to balance condemnation of aggression with maintaining a dialogue with Moscow.

The ‘Pope for Ukraine’ initiative was created to allow people worldwide to donate funds for Ukrainians affected by the war in the country's east. In its first two years, the initiative raised around €16 million, including a personal contribution from Pope Francis.

During the full-scale invasion, a special humanitarian mission, headed by Cardinal Konrad Krajewski, was established. Ten such missions have been carried out since March 2022.

The Pope had general audiences every Wednesday and Sunday, and speeches were broadcast all over the world. In almost all of his speeches, he reminded people about the war in Ukraine, Alina explained.

" While the whole world has forgotten, the news doesn't talk about it anymore, because the bombings are not so tragic, the casualties are not so great, we are all used to the same shelling, but the Pope kept saying ‘Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine.’”

Even in his last Easter address in 2025, Francis mentioned Ukraine.

"Pope Francis, in his Urbi et Orbi [traditional Pope`s address to the ‘city and the world’] address, spoke to the world about the most painful places. He said, "We pray and call on everyone to support martyred Ukraine and to establish a just and lasting peace," Yurash told The Counteroffensive.

Pope Francis died on Monday, 21 April, as a result of a stroke and cardiac arrest. He was 88.

According to the rules, the funeral seating arrangements for world leaders are allocated alphabetically by their country's name in French, the traditional language of diplomacy in which protocols were established.

As President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy should have been seated in the third row or even further back. Instead, he was put in the front row, 11 seats away from Donald Trump, who sat to his right, and next to French President Emmanuel Macron.

The Vatican broke protocol and ensured the Ukrainian president was at the centre of attention at the ceremony. Zelenskyy was also greeted with spontaneous applause when he took his seat in St Peter's Square after a brief meeting with Trump in St Peter's Basilica.

Despite previous agreements between the two sides, this “would not have happened without coordination with the Vatican,” because everything that happens on Vatican territory must be agreed upon in advance, explained Tetiana Izhevska, a former ambassador for Ukraine to the Holy See. “This is definitely an exception to the general rule.”

The meeting lasted 15 minutes and took place in private before the farewell ceremony. Details of the conversation were not disclosed, but Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it good. “It was a very symbolic meeting that could become historic if we achieve joint results,” the Ukrainian President wrote in his Telegram channel.

As the Cardinals weigh the future direction of the Catholic Church, many believers in Ukraine carry their faith through darkness, far from the Vatican.

The Pope's position has not always been clear to all Ukrainians, but perhaps this was his strength - his choice to act not loudly but carefully, considering each life.

“It seems that Pope Francis was given to us at this time to show that the church should be merciful, simple, and close to everyone,” Alina told The Counteroffensive.

NEWS OF THE DAY:

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

RUSSIA TRIES TO INFLUENCE POLAND'S ELECTIONS: Poland is witnessing unprecedented attempts by Russia to interfere in the presidential election, according to Minister of Digital Affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski.

According to him, Moscow is using disinformation and hybrid attacks on critical infrastructure, such as water utilities, thermal power plants and government agencies, to paralyze the state. The number of cyber attacks has doubled since last year, and dozens of incidents were recorded during his speech alone.

Gawkowski believes its support for Ukraine has made it a target for Russian sabotage. Poland has already faced cyber attacks on its space agency and state media, and accuses Russia of arson and sabotage in Europe.

PRICE OF RUSSIAN OIL FALLS TO RECORD LOW: The average price of Russian Urals and ESPO crude oil fell to 3,987 rubles per barrel, more than 40 percent below the planned budget level and the lowest in two years. This collapse is due to the growth of global reserves, OPEC+'s decision to increase production, and expectations of a slowdown in the global economy. In March, oil cost more than 5,000 rubles, and in April it was 4,562 rubles.

The collapse in prices forced the Russian government to cut its energy revenue forecast by a quarter and raise the expected budget deficit for 2025. At the same time, Moscow is increasing military spending to a record 6.3 percent of GDP, which is putting more pressure on finances. Analysts believe that the Kremlin will have to raise taxes, cut social spending, or increase borrowing if it does not plan to reduce funding for the war.

LITHUANIA TO INVEST €1.1 BILLION TO PROTECT THE BORDER WITH RUSSIA, BELARUS: Lithuania plans to invest €1.1 billion to strengthen the defense of its eastern border over the next decade. The bulk of the funds - 800 million euros - will be spent on installing anti-tank mines to deter possible aggression from Russia or Belarus. The measure is aimed at blocking and slowing down a potential invasion, in particular through the strategically important Suwalki corridor.

Vilnius also announced an increase in the defense budget to 5-6 percent of GDP starting in 2026. In March, Lithuania, along with Latvia, Estonia, and Poland, announced its intention to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention, which bans anti-personnel mines, which provoked a sharp reaction from Moscow.

DOG OF WAR:

Today’s Dog of War is the cute dog Myroslava saw in the coffee shop near our office.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Myroslava

In a significant move, European Union nations are positioned to ramp up their military aid to Ukraine, should President Donald Trump not successfully convince Vladimir Putin to swiftly end the conflict, according to EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius. To date, the EU and the U.S. have jointly provided Ukraine with military assistance totaling approximately €40 billion annually; however, Kubilius emphasizes the potential to utilize these funds more efficiently. This strategy could effectively double the weaponry supply to Ukraine without increasing the budget.

Kubilius highlighted a newer tool available for EU countries to assist Ukraine, suggesting that the concept of "Peace through strength" could be put into tangible practice. "Loans are strength for Ukraine!" he proclaimed, underscoring the plan.

As part of an extensive rearmament plan adopted this year, the European Commission is earmarking €150 billion in loans to ensure rapid joint procurement and production of weaponry. These financial avenues enable EU nations to invest in Ukraine's arms manufacturing or collaborate with local companies—integrating Ukraine's defense industry with Europe's.

According to a recent report by The Washington Post, a growing number of EU countries are considering investments into Ukraine's defense sector rather than direct arms shipment. This shift comes amid dwindling weapon supplies across Europe after three years of conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

In terms of tangible contributions, the European Union has already provided Kyiv with €1 billion to bolster howitzer production. Ukrainian manufacturers are rolling out both self-propelled and towed "Bohdana" howitzers, with over 85 percent of components produced domestically. By year’s end, this figure is expected to rise to 95 percent, marking a scale of local production unprecedented in Europe according to Kubilius.

Oil prices have slipped below $60 per barrel, adding pressure to a strained Russian economy. At the same time, China—Moscow’s largest trading partner—is locked in a high-stakes tariff war with the United States, triggered by the new U.S. administration. These converging disruptions are unlikely to leave Russia's economic footing - and by extension, its capacity to fund the war in Ukraine—unaffected.

To better understand the current landscape, we once again spoke with Vladimir Milov, former Russian Deputy Minister of Energy and a prominent critic of the Putin regime. An economist and energy expert, Milov was a close ally of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and currently serves as Vice President of the Free Russia Foundation. Our previous conversation with him took place in December 2024. In this latest interview, we revisit his earlier forecasts and examine how recent developments have altered Russia’s economic trajectory.

Question (Q): There’s increasing talk about a potential easing of economic sanctions on Russia—at least from the U.S. While a full rollback seems unlikely, some form of relief may be on the horizon. In your view, could this act as a lifeline for the Kremlin, enabling it to sustain the war effort?

Answer (A): I have written about it in much detail in a recent op-ed for The Insider - please have a look. Long story short - Trump won't be able to reverse Western sanctions policy, and European actions matter more than those of the U.S. Before the 2022 full-scale invasion, Europe was Russia's key investor and trade partner - over 67% of accumulated FDI stock came from Europe and around 50% of Russian exports went to Europe. The U.S. - 1% and 4% respectively. Russia needs markets and investment, and the U.S. won't provide that - even in better times, American investors didn't particularly like Russia.

However, Russia may get some benefits from U.S. sanctions being lifted, which will help to keep Putin's ailing economy afloat for a bit longer. Crucial thing is access to the U.S. technology which may boost the Russian military production - this assessment is shared in a brilliant recent report by the Kyiv School of Economics on the status of the Russian military industries - quite worth a read, I strongly recommend

Another problem is that Europe doesn't have anything comparable to the U.S. global sanctions enforcement mechanism - experienced agencies like the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control and Bureau of Industry and Security. If the U.S. lifts sanctions against Russia - or simply continues the crackdown on its own Government institutions like that executed by DOGE - the EU, Britain, and other Western democracies simply don't have its own institutional capacities to secure proper sanctions enforcement on a global scale, as currently provided by the U.S. There will be a major sanctions enforcement vacuum which Putin will inevitably use for his own benefit, boosting sanctions circumvention.

(Q): The U.S.-China tariff war has dominated headlines in recent weeks, signaling historic geopolitical and economic shifts. While Russia isn't directly involved, key trade partners like China are heavily impacted. Beyond oil, should we expect any spillover effects on the Russian economy?

(A): Yes, there's so much more than just oil. China's economic slowdown closed their market for many Russian products, due to which major Russian industries suffer badly. For once, China-oriented Russian coal industry is collapsing right in front of our eyes. Fisheries suffer from contraction of Chinese imports of Russian fish. Russian steelmakers face output contraction and sharply falling profits because cheap Chinese steel is flooding global markets - Chinese economic slowdown turned China from being a major importer to a net exporter of steel. And so on. Russian non-energy and non-commodity exports are down by about a quarter compared to pre-2022 levels, and are not rebounding - China doesn't allow Russia to access its market, and it won't change once Chinese economic growth slows down.

Tariff war will obviously exacerbate Chinese slowdown. The slower Chinese growth - the less market for Russian goods. Share of China in the total Russian exports is as high as a third now - we're heavily dependent on this market and its well-being.

(Q): In a recent interview, you mentioned that further declines in oil prices might actually benefit Russia more than if prices remain stagnant just below a certain threshold—an idea that might seem counterintuitive to many. Could you explain how that works?

(A): Biggest loser from the falling oil prices is not Russia, and not OPEC - its the American shale oil industry. Oil production costs in the U.S. are significantly higher than in Russia or OPEC. This means that, if global oil prices fall below $50, large part of the U.S. oil production will be wiped off the market, and prices will quickly rebound. We already saw these effects after 2014 and 2020 oil price crashes.

Russians know that, which is why they weren't too scared with Trump's threats to "radically bring down the oil prices". Their strategy is to wait out for mass extinction of the U.S. oil production under $50/bbl, and to wait for prices to rebound thereafter. Russian oil producing companies are OK under $30-40 prices - it is the state budget which will suffer, but Putin and his people believe they can last for some time under low oil prices, given that they will be rebounding later.

In these circumstances, I'd say the best scenario if the international oil prices will stay somewhere around $60. Given the sanctions-driven discounts, that means Russian oil cheaper than $50. These are the prices which will significantly hurt Russia (Russian budget is drafted under $70/bbl oil price assumption), but will prevent the collapse of the U.S. shale oil industry and further rebounding of prices. Oil at $50 or cheaper is a much worse scenario, as it will most likely mean that low oil prices will be short-lived, which will make Putin happy.

(Q): During our last conversation, there was an expectation that Russia’s central bank would raise interest rates, yet it held steady at around 21%. What factors led to that unexpected decision?

(A): After their February Board meeting, Central Bank has admitted that "consequences of further raising rates will be worse than keeping the rates steady" - meaning that it would exacerbate economic slowdown or probably lead to a recession. To avoid that, they partially sacrificed the goal of bringing down inflation - which still remains high, preventing the Central Bank from much-anticipated easing of monetary policies. At the recent March meeting of the Central Bank board, only two signals were discussed - neutral and tough (further increasing the rate).

Central Bank faces tough dilemma now - interest rate of 21% is still very high (Russia has 12th highest Central Bank rate in the world), rapidly cooling the economy, but inflation is not really receding. The root causes of inflation - heavy budgetary spending on the war, output gap created by output not catching up with demand due to Western sanctions against Russian manufacturing sector - are not going away. At the same time, Russian industrial output has zeroed out in February (0,2% year-on-year growth and 0,4% seasonally adjusted growth compared to January), and March figures may be even worse - soon we'll see the statistics. So, Central Bank has managed to rapidly cause stagnation with its tight monetary policies - risking further slipping into recession - but it failed to bring inflation under control.

(Q): Your latest FRF Think Tank report points to high inflation and near-zero output growth in Russia—classic signs of stagflation. However, some economists argue that high unemployment is a necessary component. Given that unemployment remains relatively low, does this mean Russia hasn’t yet entered stagflation, or is this just a statistical distortion due to the mass recruitment of the male population?

(A): True, Russian situation is unique. The term "stagflation" was coined in the 1960s and 1970s in the Western economies none of which experienced such a mass diversion of the workforce to the war as Russia today. If the current war is suddenly over, Russia will indeed experience high unemployment - masses of soldiers returning to civilian life won't easily find jobs.

Russia also continues to experience very high hidden unemployment - workforce which is nominally employed, but in reality is either on unpaid leave, part-time workweek, or downtime. Rosstat estimated hidden unemployment to be as high as 4,7 million people in Q4 2024, or over 6% of the total workforce. Together with official unemployment, that would make about 9% of the workforce.

These workers would have significantly eased the pressure on labor market should they have left their enterprises, but Russian labor market traditionally features low mobility (remember how people in the 1990s preferred to continue working for years at enterprises which haven't paid them salaries, instead of leaving them looking for new jobs). So, companies nominally keep the workers, but effectively don't pay them - hoping for recovery, which is not coming (nearly three quarters of hidden unemployment are people on unpaid leave).

So, if we're into a macroeconomic debate by the book here, Russia does have high unemployment - but in hidden or delayed forms. And stagflation is real. If the current situation lingers on, even nominal unemployment will rise quite soon.

(Q): What is the current situation with Russia's National Wealth Fund — the main financial reserve that has supported Putin's economy through years of war? What are the implications for the Kremlin and the ongoing war?

(A): As of April 1st, the liquidity portion of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) stood at $39 billion, or just over RUR 3 trillion. That's lower than the federal budget deficit recorded in 2024 (RUR 3,5 trillion). As it goes, 2025 budget deficit will likely be much higher - costs are rising (over 20% federal expenditure growth in Q1 2025), while revenues will be depressed by both the falling oil prices, as well as economic slowdown. Already now, non-oil revenue in Q1 2025 grew only by 11% year-on-year, against 26% growth in 2024, and 18% planned growth for 2025. Of which VAT - by just 9%, as opposed to 22% in 2024 and 17% planned for 2025. Slowing economy generates less taxes, which will undermine budget revenues to an extent not lesser than falling oil prices, and lead to further depletion of the NWF. As it looks from today, there's no other way but for the liquidity portion of the NWF to be fully depleted by the end of 2025 (usually they draw the funds from NWF in December to close the fiscal year).

There's also a non-liquidity portion of the NWF, but it largely exists only on paper, with money invested in various securities and not being easily recoverable. For those interested in details, I have analyzed this in my February brief on the Russian economy. The liquidity portion of the NWF has shrank from $116,5 billion in February 2022 to just $39 billion now as a result of heavy war-related spending. Essentially, this was the model of much-praised Putin's "economic resilience": heavily draw the available cash reserves to compensate for the negative effects of sanctions. But this "economic miracle" appears to be over, disappearing along with cash being spent.

What next after the liquidity part of the NWF is fully spent? I also analyze this in one of my recent reports in detail. Bottom line: nothing is working except monetary emission, printing the money. Government can't borrow - they are cut off from international financial markets, and domestically, with yields as high as over 16% for OFZ government bonds, Russia spends more on repaying and servicing the debt than it actually raises from the domestic debt market. Net debt raising was just around zero in 2024 and negative in Q1 2025. They can raise taxes, but that would further undermine economic growth and curb tax base - they'll lose more in the end. Hypothetically, they can try to privatize state assets, but there's not really much to sell if they don't opt to privatize control equity shares in major state companies - and they don't seem to even consider that for strategic reasons. As far as smaller-scale privatization is concerned, it won't solve their fiscal problems on a large scale, and there won't be much demand given the rapid deterioration of investment climate, ongoing rampant nationalization, etc.

So printing the money seems to be the only viable option left. Russian authorities seem to increasingly tolerate high inflation - "we're not Turkey or Argentina yet, so what difference does it make if inflation is 12-13% instead of 10% - let's print a couple of trillion rubles, no one will notice" (that was literally said by some State Duma deputies during Nabiullina's report debate on April 9th). Central Bank clearly shifted to limited emission schemes in the past few months through repo auctions - banks buy government bonds, and are immediately allowed to use them as collateral while borrowing cash from the Central Bank through repo auctions. Central Bank promised to use repo auctions as temporary mechanism in November 2024, but keeps rolling them over - switching from monthly to weekly repo auctions. Effectively, it is little different from Central Bank's credit to the government, or, in simple words, printing the money.

No question that filling the budgetary gap with printed money will lead to even higher inflation, which will destroy any prospect for economic recovery. So, basically, the Western sanctions are working - albeit not as fast as we hoped, but still.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has turned down Russian leader Vladimir Putin's proposal for a three-day "ceasefire" on May 9, advocating instead for a 30-day cessation of hostilities. According to Ukrinform, Zelensky made this clear during a press briefing, emphasizing his reluctance to engage in "short-term ceasefires" suggested by Putin. He argued that a 30-day model is the most viable as it is impractical to negotiate within just a few days.

The Ukrainian President clarified, "Ukraine cannot ensure the security of world leaders in Moscow on May 9." Zelensky also aligned his stance with former President Trump, stating, "I agree with Trump that a 30-day ceasefire with Russia is the right first step." He underscored the necessity of rapidly addressing monitoring issues should a month-long ceasefire be agreed upon.

Zelensky elaborated, "If there's a decision for a month, no active war for that month, there will be violations, 100%... But (overall) the scale of war we have now, of course, won't happen. And everyone understands that monitoring issues must be settled quickly. The top issue is a ceasefire, followed by an assessment of the overall trajectory of ending the war," he concluded.

The U.S. has announced plans to sell F-16 fighter jet equipment and services to Ukraine. The State Department-approved package includes potential transfer of the jets themselves, upgrades and refurbishments, training for Ukrainian military personnel, provision of spare parts, maintenance equipment, software, technical documentation, and other logistical support.

According to U.S. officials, this package is designed to bolster Ukraine's defenses against current and future threats. It aims to enhance the training of Ukrainian pilots and facilitate cooperation between Ukraine's armed forces and those of the United States. Despite this assistance, Washington believes that the transfer of these jets will not alter the overall military balance in the region.

The notification regarding the planned sale was submitted to the U.S. Congress on May 2, 2025. The deal is valued at $310.5 million and will be executed through the Foreign Military Sales government-to-government program.

This announcement marks the first significant U.S. arms supply to Ukraine following Donald Trump’s election as President. It remains unclear how this package will be financed, although it's possible the funds could come from previously approved aid during the Biden administration.

Additionally, on April 30, it was revealed that the Trump administration authorized the export of $50 million in defense goods to Ukraine under a direct commercial sales arrangement—meaning the sale is made directly from the manufacturer.

The transfer of F-16 jets is being coordinated by the U.S. and NATO countries. The decision was made in 2023 when a coalition of 15 nations led by the Netherlands and Denmark was formed. Ukrainian pilot training is taking place in these countries as well as in the U.S., Norway, and Romania.

Ukraine is set to receive a total of 85 upgraded aircraft: 24 from the Netherlands, 19 from Denmark, 30 from Belgium (beginning in 2026), and 12 operational with 10 additional jets for spare parts from Norway. By the end of 2024, 20 jets will have been delivered, and up to 35 more are expected in 2025. Reports have already emerged of two Ukrainian F-16s being lost. Moreover, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with six decommissioned F-16 ADFs for spare parts.

A tank roars down a Taiwanese street, past a pair of frightened cyclists.

It’s seven days until China invades Taiwan.

Seconds earlier, these chilling words appeared on screen:

“Day Z Minus 7. The PLA [People’s Liberation Army of China] navy and airforce surrounds Taiwan in the pretext of search and rescue, spreading the idea of abandoning the fight, and coercing Taiwan to sign a peace agreement.”

Luckily, this isn’t news footage, but scenes from the trailer for the highly anticipated Taiwanese TV show ‘Zero Day,’ which comes out next month. It’s a dramatic visualization of what might happen if Beijing tries to take over Taiwan.

As the threat of Chinese invasion continues, Taiwanese culture has become almost fixated with the concept, expressing its fears through representations in television shows, movies, comics and even board games.

Like Ukraine, Taiwan is a democratic country facing the threat of annexation and cultural annihilation by its much larger, authoritarian neighbor. In a way, these cultural artefacts are signals of how violent acts – even war – are constantly on the minds of the Taiwanese who are bracing for a terrible geopolitical shift.

While many in Taiwan used to find it hard to believe that China could wage war on them, watching Russia’s invasion of Ukraine broke these illusions.

Now, the Taiwanese know they need to prepare.

In 2023, the U.S. Department of Defense published a report, ‘The Ambitious Dragon,’ which claimed Chinese President Xi Jinping wanted to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2030. Some believe this could happen earlier: the former head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Phil Davidson, and the ex-Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday have a different opinion. They believe that it will happen by 2027.

“The [prospect of] war has never been so close to us,” Zero Day producer Hsin-mei Cheng told The Counteroffensive. “The situation between Taiwan and China is so similar to Ukraine and Russia. We’ve been facing a possible war for so long and haven’t realized.”

Cheng, a former journalist with 16 years of experience, found a new passion in film production in recent years.

“Writing about news can’t change the world much,” said Cheng, “but a good story can instantly resonate with the public.”

The TV show ‘Zero Day,’ which is set for release in May, contains 10 episodes imagining what could happen in Taiwan if China invades. In the 17-minute trailer, the audience senses the panic attack in Taiwan after seeing the PLA put forces in Taiwan. The Taiwanese fear of the unknown spreads across different generations, diverse immigrant laborers, and the local gangsters who try to take advantage of the chaos.

The show imagines the war starting in 2028, after President Xi Jinping has left office and as the Chinese Communist Party is holding a new presidential election. Xi’s successor decides to “finish the mission of unifying the motherland” by attacking Taiwan and building a legacy at the beginning of the term. At the same time, Taiwan and the U.S. are also facing government transitions, as it is an election year in both countries.

The imagined war in Zero Day reflects situations that have become well-known to people in Ukraine. Disinformation has become a common tactic in war. In the trailer, China uses its technology to spread confusion among the Taiwanese public, using AI to create a fake video of the president.

China is hundreds of times larger than Taiwan, with far more resources. How are Taiwan’s chances?

“We need to have people acknowledge everything about the war first so that people can be prepared,” said Cheng. “Winning a war is never about how much or how strong your weapons are. We need faith.”

Creating ‘Zero Day’ was controversial in itself. Some Taiwanese politicians and their supporters have been anxious about “poking the bear,” saying it would jeopardize business cooperation between Taiwan and China. They also questioned its legitimacy, pointing out that the show received 3.43 million USD from government sponsorship and claiming that the motivation behind it was to create anti-China propaganda.

“We would love Chinese people to watch the show. I think they should watch the show to understand Taiwan better,” Cheng said, denying all the accusations.

Some members of the production team caved in advance to Chinese censorship and asked to be anonymous on the credits so that the work wouldn’t affect their family working in China.

The sensitive topic has gotten Zero Day a huge amount of media attention, but it is one of several fictional works that have gained traction in recent years.

A comic book published in 2018, ‘Western Pacific War: The Invasion of Taiwan,’ has an even more timely scenario: an invasion during Trump’s presidency. It has gotten positive reviews, reflected in relatively high sales numbers when it came out, but its popularity skyrocketed after Trump was re-elected in November last year.

“My prediction was quite accurate, including Trump’s actions,” said Liang. “My story is close to the real world. We spiced it up with some exaggeration, so people love it.”

In the Western Pacific War series, the invasion of Taiwan is something of an accident. In order to show his strength, the fictional Trump has ambitions to counter China, but his administration screws up the plan.

At the same time, a few senior officials inside the Chinese government are planning to rebel. Both sides want to use Taiwan for political gains, which accidentally accelerates the Chinese invasion.

Its author, Liang Shao-shien – who uses ‘Fur Ball’ as a pseudonym – has a military background that helped him compose the story. He served the country for almost 20 years until he retired in 2016. Before he joined the army, he went to art school. His superintendent noticed his talent and asked him to draw for the military's ROC National Defense Report publication.

As a veteran and a civilian, Liang shared his thoughts about the Taiwanese being ready to fight the PLA.

“We have a good barrier [the Taiwan Strait] … War is not going to happen today. But now, as a civilian, I believe it depends on how the attack affects your life,” said Liang. “If you’re not mentally prepared, you’re never gonna be ready.”

While Chen and Liang imagined how China would invade Taiwan, the board game company Mizo Games had another idea. What about letting the Taiwanese play out the invasion?

The founder of Mizo Games, KJ Chang, developed the board game ‘2045,’ deliberately designed for a Chinese invasion that could happen in 2045.

According to KJ, it’s a zero-sum game, meaning the player’s goal is to do whatever they can to win points from the others.

“I don’t want to make this game too romantic because that’s not what a war is like,” said KJ. “The game is not for everyone to work together and fight the Chinese. There will be some Taiwanese people trying to gain benefits from the war.”

There are six players in 2045. Players who take the role of the Taiwanese government and civil defense team get points if they beat the PLA in conflicts.

Also active in the game is the semiconductor association, who try to protect all business assets during the war. Other players take the role of the China's Peaceful Unification Organization – which provides intel for the PLA – and they play against the Taiwanese defense. Meanwhile, arms dealers and local gangsters can play in favor of both sides to get points.

“You need to have the players feel they are playing a new game every time they play,” KJ said, explaining how he made the board game. “Whether good guys or bad guys, they all have different interests to protect. It is why the game never ends the same.”

KJ watches the Ukraine war closely, and has used it to improve his game. He was especially inspired by the battle for Mariupol.

To make the game align with real war, KJ created major tragic incident cards that could cost players more points. Though the war is unpredictable, KJ has strong faith.

“The most determined Taiwanese will decide our history,” said KJ.

TIM MAK x GARRY KASPAROV:

On the nature of human freedom, on whether Garry still feels Russian, and the future of America’s role in the world.

NEWS OF THE DAY:

TAIWAN CELEBRATES END OF WWII FOR FIRST TIME AMID CHINA AGGRESSION: Next week Lai Ching-te, president of the Republic of China, will commemorate the end of World War Two in Taiwan for the first time, according to Reuters.

Taiwan has been using WWII as an example to China about why imperial expansion will end in failure, the news agency notes.

Two sources, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Taiwan will host foreign diplomats from allied nations in Taipei on Thursday. Lai is expected to deliver a speech marking the 80th anniversary of the war’s end and urge allies to stand united against growing threats from China, Iran, and North Korea.

In the meantime, Chinese President Xi Jinping will be in Moscow next week to attend President Putin’s Victory Day parade to mark the end of World War Two.

U.S.-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL TRIGGERS CONCERN IN RUSSIA:
Concern is growing among in Russia over the U.S.-Ukraine economic partnership agreement signed this week, which they fear could weaken Moscow’s position in future negotiations with Kyiv.

“The deal worsens the situation for Russia,” a political analyst with Kremlin ties told The Washington Post. “A major source of tension between Trump and Zelensky has now been removed.”

Another Russian official said pressure is mounting on President Putin: “He understands that he needs to be more cooperative,” the official noted.

The United States’ approach to the war has shifted under the Trump administration, with Putin finding a more sympathetic ally in the White House. Trump and Putin have held several personal phone calls, while U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has appeared increasingly receptive to Russian perspectives on the invasion.

ZELENSKYY REJECTS RUSSIA’S 3-DAY CEASEFIRE: President Zelenskyy dismissed Putin’s proposal for a three-day ceasefire as theatrical, instead calling for a month-long pause in hostilities. “It’s impossible to reach any agreements in three, five, or even seven days,” Zelenskyy told reporters on Saturday.

Putin had suggested a ceasefire from May 7–9, coinciding with visits from foreign dignitaries for Moscow’s Victory Day parade marking the end of World War Two. During the press conference on Saturday, Zelenskyy said Ukraine could not guarantee the safety of any officials visiting Russia during that time.

“We do not recommend visiting Russia from a [safety] standpoint. And if you do choose to go, do not ask us. That is your personal decision,” Zelenskyy said.

PIGGY OF PEACE:

Today’s dog of peace… is not a dog! The piggy of peace played an important role in the Zero Day scene. If you want to know why there is a piggy, you’ll have to watch the show!

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Elaine

In 2024, the EU held its European Parliament elections. The center-right, led by Ursula von der Leyen, secured the most seats and claimed victory. However, it was also the most successful year for the far right, with various Eurosceptic fringe groups winning 220 out of 720 seats—roughly 30.6% of the total in the European Parliament.

This victory was particularly significant for the far right, especially Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. Her party won the European elections in France, securing twice as many votes as President Macron’s Ensemble, prompting him to call early parliamentary elections. Le Pen is known for her pro-Russian stance in international affairs, having claimed that annexed Crimea belongs to Russia and repeatedly urged an end to military aid for Ukraine.

In an opinion piece for The Hill, American lawyer Gregory Wallance observed that Russia has shifted its focus from the far left to the far right, using the latter as a vehicle for propaganda in U.S. politics. Research by the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism further indicates that Russia funds far-right parties across Europe to expand its influence and undermine support for Ukraine.

Russian propaganda in Europe

In June 2024, The Washington Post published an investigation revealing a large-scale Kremlin-backed influence operation conducted through the far-right media outlet Voice of Europe. Officially registered in Prague, the platform was used to funnel funds to far-right politicians across Europe, promoting pro-Russian narratives and eroding support for Ukraine.

The Post’s investigation cites European intelligence reports linking Artem Marchevsky—a former Ukrainian television producer with ties to pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk—to a coordinated influence campaign. Marchevsky reportedly held meetings with far-right representatives in Germany, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and other EU countries, offering monthly payments of up to €1 million in exchange for amplifying pro-Russian narratives through media and public appearances.

Maksym Vikhrov, Senior Analyst at Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communications and Information Security, told Gwara Media that platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Telegram, TikTok, Facebook, and YouTube are especially susceptible to Russian disinformation. Unlike traditional media with editorial oversight, these platforms struggle to moderate the overwhelming flow of content. Telegram, in particular, serves as a direct channel for Russian intelligence-led information operations targeting both Ukrainian and European audiences.

Vikhrov also noted that X hosts sprawling multilingual networks of Russian-linked accounts and “bot armies,” while TikTok’s rapid-fire video format leaves little room for critical analysis, making it fertile ground for manipulation. Beyond social media, Russia has developed a vast disinformation ecosystem, including hundreds of websites, in an attempt to construct an “alternative internet” under Moscow’s control.

In 2023, the European Commission study highlighted X's role in amplifying Russian disinformation about Ukraine. Now, Russia is ramping up its efforts on the platform, pushing narratives about Ukraine's supposed loss of sovereignty and discrediting Western support.

Gwara Media fact-check editor Olga Yakovleva shares examples of Russian propaganda using X as a propaganda tool. An anonymous user on X posted a fake claim about Hollywood stars being paid for their visits to Ukraine. However, it gained traction after being amplified by Elon Musk and Donald Trump Jr. — Russian propaganda channels, some with over 100K followers, quickly picked it up, pushing the fake to hundreds of thousands of viewers.

Similarly, the false claim that Zelenskyy bought a private bank in France originated from an anonymous X user and was then spread by Russian pro-Kremlin media such as eNews and news.ru.

Ukrainian state against Russian propaganda

Alina Bondarchuk, deputy head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, told Deutsche Welle that the fight against disinformation in Ukraine is coordinated at the state level. Since 2021, the Center—operating under the National Security and Defense Council—has been actively debunking Russian falsehoods and tracking their spread across social media platforms.

"We have established a partnership with Google. We provide expert assessments of narratives circulating on various channels. YouTube reviews these cases as a Google subsidiary and decides to block content. Over 200 channels have already been blocked."

Information security expert Andriy Bidenko noted that Ukraine has been effective in countering Russian propaganda, thanks in large part to the work of strategic communications centers. He emphasised that Ukrainians have developed a strong resilience to crude and simplistic propaganda, which now rarely reaches them and is virtually absent from domestic media and social networks.

An essential part of Ukraine’s effort to combat Russian propaganda involves broadcasting Ukrainian content to occupied territories. On July 5, 2024, the Zaporizhzhia regional administration launched a TV network offering free access to nine Ukrainian channels, including in areas under Russian control. Vladyslav Moroko, head of the regional Department of Culture and Information Policy, unveiled a roadmap to restore Ukrainian broadcasting starting from Zaporizhzhia. The network is expected to eventually cover 90% of the country’s territory.

Maksym Vikhrov concludes, “Ukraine has amassed significant experience in countering Russian FIMI (Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference) influences, developed through real-world challenges.” He explained that Ukraine's tools evolved not from theoretical frameworks but from urgent practical needs.

However, Vikhrov cautioned that existing tools will never suffice—neither in Ukraine nor globally—since Russian propaganda also adapts and adopts new technologies.

For instance, he noted that Moscow currently aims to "poison" large language models like ChatGPT with its narratives. At the same time, Moscow promotes an alternative "fact-checking" system globally (Russian project "War on Fakes," for instance, simply promotes Russian narratives via loud claims and links to Russian sources under the guise of fact-checking — ed.) While resembling legitimate fact-checking in form, this system would "debunk" facts by referencing statements from figures like Lavrov.

Fact-checking tips from Ukraine

Olga Yakovleva said that cooperation between newsrooms and knowledge sharing is needed to address the disinformation problem worldwide. Most fakes spread in several countries at once. For example, the Russian network Pravda creates fakes in Russian and then translates them into other languages.

Knowledge sharing, Yakovlieva notes, helps to find patterns of disinformation, to recognize manipulations and debunk them faster, and creates an ecosystem of experts and media workers for countering disinformation.

Kyrylo Perevoshchykov , analyst of an independent fact-checking project, VoxCheck, in the interview with Detector Media, described the algorithm they use to check information.

First, they verify who spread the fake information and whether the source—a blogger, politician, media outlet, or other organization—has previously disseminated disinformation. The next step is to search for other publications with similar content to identify variations or "mutations" of the fake, ensuring the fact-check addresses all false claims comprehensively.

Depending on the case, VoxCheck verifies whether statements, news, laws, scientific articles, statistical studies, or investigations are accurately represented in the publication or manipulated. If the fake includes photos or videos, experts make sure they are authentic.

"Fact-checkers' challenges are not significantly different from those encountered by other media professionals. These include handling large volumes of information that must be regularly analyzed and responding quickly to challenges and threats," Perevevoshcykov said.

Olga Yakovleva recommends to connect to professional fact-checking platforms like European Fact-Checking Standards Network (EFCSN) and International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN) platforms and join OSINT communities like GeoConfirmed, the Bellingcat Community, r/OSINT on Reddit.

“It’s very important to be part of a professional community — to keep learning, share knowledge, and avoid isolating in the bubble.”

It’s also good to try out new fact-checking tools like InVID (video verification), Maltego (OSINT platform), and Hunchly (data organization tool), Yakovlieva says. Investigations into fakes can be then published to open libraries like EUvsDisinfo, DFRLab, and OpenFact. 

Yakovlieva said that psychological resilience must also be taken care of, recommending having an action plan in case of hate or attacks and a support team, such as a newsroom, legal advisors, or trusted colleagues.

"Fact-checking that deals with sensitive topics — such as war, politics, elections, or disinformation campaigns — can make you a technical and psychological target. Cyber hygiene and personal safety are just as crucial as fact-checking skills," Yakovlieva noted.

The project is co-financed by the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The mission of the fund is to advance ideas for sustainable regional cooperation in Central Europe.

The project is supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea.

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#Putin can’t wage war and then dictate ceasefires to suit its propaganda. Putin’s 72-hour truce for Victory Day is a farce—meant to parade soldiers in #Moscow while foreign mercenaries bleed on the front lines. Peace isn’t a PR stunt.

Also valid for #Trump btw

Russia ignites a war, then has the audacity to dictate when the bloodshed should pause—conveniently aligning ceasefires with its propaganda spectacles like the May 9 Victory Day parade. This isn’t about peace; it’s about optics. While Putin orchestrates grand displays in Moscow, his regime hurls undertrained conscripts and foreign mercenaries into the front lines as expendable pawns, mere cannon fodder in a brutal charade. Such manipulative tactics serve only to mask the Kremlin’s desperation and disregard for human life.

Brian Dooley is a Senior Advisor at Washington-based NGO Human Rights First and Honorary Professor of Practice at Queen’s University, Belfast. He specializes in working with human rights activists in war and other conflict zones and is a regular visitor to Kharkiv. 

USA, WASHINGTON, D.C. — This Wednesday, April 30, marks 100 days since Donald Trump became American president for the second time.

For almost a century, the first 100 days of new U.S. presidents have been a sort of checkpoint to assess how they’ve started. President Franklin Roosevelt passed an intense amount of legislation in a 100-day burst at the start of his presidency in 1933, and the marker has since become an important, if symbolic, point of judgment.

Trump has certainly made a fast start, starting a global tariff war, cutting U.S. overseas government funding, threatening to take over Greenland, and attacking all sort of government departments. But he hasn’t managed to keep his promise to end the war on Ukraine in a day. 

Seems it was trickier than he thought.

Between March 2023 and October 2024 (the month he won the election), he claimed at least 53 times that he would end the war either within 24 hours of becoming president, or even before he was official sworn in.

Now he says he didn’t mean it literally: “I said that figuratively, …as an exaggeration… it was said in jest.”

But here in Washington, not having found a way to end the war in his first 100 days is seen as a failure after so much boasting. In July last year, when he was nominated for president by the, we examined the tensions within the party over Ukraine, noting that while some Republicans seemed okay with being friendly to Russia, others were still backing Ukraine in the war.

But it doesn’t look like internal Republican divisions are the problem. “There are a few Republican members of Congress still publicly supporting Ukraine, but the rest have been bullied into silence,” one Senate aide and foreign policy expert told me. “There isn’t any real opposition to Trump from his own party over Ukraine.”

Instead, it seems the reality of dealing with President Vladimir Putin is what’s prevented a deal from being struck.

According to a poll this week, more than half of Americans (including one in five Republicans) now say that Trump is "too closely aligned" with Russia, although nearly half also said they support Trump's plan of "conditioning U.S. military support for Ukraine on the U.S. getting a share of Ukraine's mineral wealth.”

Of course, the war looks different from Washington than is does in Kharkiv. Armchair experts in the U.S. and Europe offer unhelpful suggestions while Ukrainian cities get bombed and civilians killed.

Trump’s tactics of publicly attacking both Ukraine and Russia, plus various senior level meetings involving combinations of American, Ukrainian, European and Russian officials, haven’t been able to make any breakthrough. This makes Trump look weak, undermining his claims to being an expert dealmaker.

The war was never going to be ended in 24 hours. It’s a complicated process to end the invasion, and maybe even more complicated to ensure any agreement sticks.

Whenever the outlines of a real peace deal begin to emerge, they should not trade away human rights for a political fix. 

As Tetiana Pechonchyk of Ukrainian human rights NGO ZMINA and I argue in the New York Law Journal, the prosecution of war crimes suspects mustn’t be surrounded in any deal. Nor should the International Criminal Court case against Putin and other Russian officials be dropped, Ukrainians children abducted into Russia have to be returned, and adults taken prisoner should be too. 

There are many other rights that have to be protected in any peace deal, and we know, too, that involving women human rights activists in negotiations is a good idea. Evidence from all over the world shows that women’s participation increases the probability of a peace agreement lasting at least two years by 20%, and by 35%, the probability of a peace agreement lasting 15 years.

Getting a deal that lasts is vital. Trump couldn’t make one in his first 100 days, and this will rightly be seen as a failure. Now what matters is what happens in the next 100 days.

Opinion pieces reflect the thoughts of their authors and do not reflect Gwara Media’s views.

The post Opinion: Trump’s 100-day failure on Russia’s war in Ukraine appeared first on Gwara Media.