USA

May 9, 2025 8:28pm

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 6 minutes

Ben Borges

Editor’s Note: This opinion first appeared in CNN Portugal.

In January 2023, Brazil rid itself of Jair Bolsonaro’s government. Bolsonaro’s rule saw dictatorship’s torturers exalted, minorities being targeted, and democracy treated as an obstacle.

In this atmosphere, the 2022 elections allowed his political opponents to brand themselves as defenders of democracy, even if their own pasts were not without problems.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, despite his longstanding sympathy for authoritarian regimes such as those of Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela or Fidel and Raul Castro’s iron rule over Cuba, moderated his rhetoric during the 2022 election campaign and presented himself as the only viable alternative to Bolsonaro’s nationalism and ultraconservatism.

With the active support of his new wife, Janja Lula da Silva, he built a campaign centered on defending democracy.

This rhetoric remains present in Lula’s public projection, especially when he criticizes the nationalism of U.S. President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro’s ally, for governing unilaterally and disregarding institutions, rules, and any appreciation of diversity.

But one thing stands out about Lula and Janja — their selectivity and hypocrisy.

On the morning of May 3, Janja landed in Moscow six days ahead of the president and posted on social media that, at the invitation of the Russian government, she had visited the Kremlin.

In her post, she tried to give the visit a reflective tone, stating that in such difficult times as we live in today, with conflicts spreading and intensifying and with the resurgence of extremist forces, it is necessary and important to preserve memory, learn from history, and together build a future of peace and fraternity among peoples.

The problem is that Janja speaks of peace and fraternity precisely alongside a regime that has carried out the gravest violation of peace in Europe since World War II. Russian President Vladimir Putin not only invaded a sovereign country but also bombarded hospitals and murdered opponents, all while rewriting history using both propaganda and tanks.

If Janja is concerned about extremism, she should look to her host, one of the darkest showings of modern authoritarianism, who faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children.

Lula and Janja have made themselves pawns in Vladimir Putin's theater. Lula arrived in Moscow on May 9 to participate, alongside other authoritarian leaders such as Belarus's Aleksandr Lukashenko, Venezuela's Maduro, and Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel, in the celebrations of the so-called Victory Day. Russia's state news agency TASS has already announced that a large number of world leaders will come to Moscow for the Victory Day celebrations.

The holiday, which marks the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany, has been transformed by Putin into a central propaganda tool, used to justify the invasion of Ukraine as if it were a new crusade against Nazism.

Will Trump help Putin escape punishment for his crimes in Ukraine?

Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. took the unprecedented step of deepening cooperation with international courts of law. Washington has never been party to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the International Criminal Court (ICC), and U.S. policy towards the Hague-based international tribunal has varied widely under different administrations. Now, since President Donald Trump returned to office, that cooperation has stalled. Among his first actions after returning to the O

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Brazilian leadership proudly shows its support for democracy at home, yet conveniently forgets that Putin destroyed Russian democracy and murdered those who had the courage to stand up to him.

Putin eliminated political rivals like Alexei Navalny, manipulated elections, and turned the media into propaganda networks. Putin has turned the country into a dictatorship where the constitution has been rewritten to suit the modern czar, and any critical voice is silenced through imprisonment, exile, or poisoning.

Putin has done in Russia everything that Lula had been against in Brazil under Bolsonaro's rule.

Lula and Janja, in contrast to Bolsonaro's machismo and misogyny, have rightly championed feminism, women's rights, and press freedom, all under fire by the previous administration.

Yet, when it comes to foreign policy, Lula and Janja tend to forget what they stand for.

So what does this visit really reveal? On the one hand, Lula has tried to distance himself from regimes like Maduro's, knowing they are unpopular in Brazil and cost him votes. On the other hand, he continues to offer ideological comfort to Putin, even in the face of Russian atrocities.

This reveals the persistence of the old logic of the Latin American left. If a country adopts an anti-Western stance, it is treated as a legitimate ally. It does not matter if this alignment contradicts the values Lula and Janja claim to defend, such as human rights, press freedom, or diversity. In the end, progressive discourse becomes a tool of convenience, used to confront internal opponents but discarded when it is time to denounce abuses by friendly regimes.

Some try to justify the Brazilian government's position by saying that Brazil is part of BRICS or that it depends on Russian fertilizers. But that is a flimsy excuse for those trying to deceive others or themselves.

Putin is in no position of strength to sever ties with the few democracies still willing to maintain dialogue with Moscow. Russia was expelled from the G8, and since then, BRICS has become one of its last international showcases. Putin knows this. He will not risk losing one of the few spaces of global prestige he still holds just because Brazil refuses to openly endorse the invasion of Ukraine. No one is asking to cut diplomatic ties. Maintaining dialogue is part of diplomacy. But posing next to a dictator wanted for war crimes as if nothing is happening is unacceptable.

Anyone who claims to be a defender of democracy cannot applaud a war criminal.

And for those clinging to economic arguments, the data is even more embarrassing.

In 2023, Brazil imported 4.5 billion dollars in diesel from Russia, along with fertilizers and other inputs. But Russia ranked only 41st among Brazil's top export markets, with 1.3 billion dollars. Meanwhile, the United States, which Lula has blamed for prolonging the war, purchased 37.4 billion dollars in Brazilian goods in the same year.

In other words, Lula treads carefully around authoritarian regimes even when the economic relationship is modest and attacks Western partners who support a significant share of Brazilian exports. This is not pragmatism. It is opportunism with an ideological veneer.

If this little trip to Russia reveals anything, it is who Lula and Janja truly are.

Behind the progressive rhetoric and postures in defense of diversity lies the same old musty, incoherent left, one that kneels before dictators as long as they claim to be anti-Western.

A left that loves to denounce conservatism but bows to a regime that criminalizes homosexuality, murders journalists, and deports children.

By posing with Putin, Lula and Janja not only undermine everything they claim to defend. They also expose their lack of political discernment and hand arguments, on a silver platter, to the grotesque conservatism they claim to oppose.

May 9, 2025 7:48pm

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 11 minutes

Ben Borges

A series of Russian ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian cities have killed dozens of civilians in recent weeks, shaking an already uneasy sense of safety for Ukrainians living far from the front lines.

The Russian strikes are growing more lethal as foreign air defense aid to Ukraine has dwindled, particularly deliveries of Patriot missiles. Ukraine is left struggling to cover the shortfall.

Ukraine’s ability to shoot down inbound Russian drones and cruise missiles has grown enormously since Russia’s full-scale invasion. But despite ingenuity in domestic weapon production over the past three years, Ukraine has no homemade equivalent to the Patriot, a U.S.-made surface-to-air missile system whose latest iterations are uniquely good at stopping ballistic missiles in flight.

Ukraine’s local missile makers are working through a long list of demands on their production, while also finding their factories under frequent Russian aerial strikes. Before February 2022, Ukrainian aerospace engineers were reconfiguring their leftover Soviet air defense batteries for the next generation of threats. Like the stocks of Patriot missiles, those systems are also running low on ammunition, and their designers are prioritizing building cruise and ballistic missiles over anti-ballistic air defense missiles.

Ukraine is consequently unlikely to field strong anti-ballistic missile defenses of its own any time soon. The only near-term solution to Russia’s increasingly aggressive ballistic attacks remains the delivery of more Patriot missiles from allied nations.

Renewed Russian strikes and reduced Ukrainian defense

Ballistic missiles are among the toughest challenges that any air defense system faces. They fly in high parabolas far from the Earth’s surface, coming down at several times the speed of sound to strike their targets.

Intercepting ballistic missiles in their flight paths requires precision both in detection of incoming missiles and in the launch and targeting of outgoing air defense missiles. Cruise missiles and drones fly slower and nearer to the ground, giving ground-based air defense more time to hit them out of the sky.

“There’s a big difference between ballistic missile defense and missile defense targeted at air-breathing threats like drones and cruise missiles,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile specialist at the Oslo Nuclear Project. “Airbreathing” refers to aircraft with jet engines that take in oxygen as they fly at relatively low altitudes. “For ballistic missile defense, there simply is no shortcut.“

Much of the weaponry American arms makers have sent to Ukraine has fallen short on the battlefield. Missile defense systems are a major exception, particularly when it comes to fending off ballistic threats like Russian Kinzhals and Iskanders.

“The Americans mastered that technology because they had to,” said Hoffmann. “The U.S., after the Cold War, operated under the assumption that it would always have air dominance near where it fought. That means the only credible airborne threat you really have to worry about is standoff munitions like ballistic and cruise missiles.”

Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. has slowed down air defense aid to Ukraine. The last major shipment of Patriot equipment was the week following Trump’s inauguration — 90 missiles redirected from Israel. Another Patriot system from Israel is currently being refurbished after almost a year of back-and-forth, but U.S. standards of “refurbishment” have famously held up much simpler deliveries like armored vehicles for months.

Ukraine guards details about its missile programs in general and air defenses in particular extremely closely. But by the figures available, the situation is growing dire.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte lamented that almost all the Patriots promised to Ukraine were already there as of the middle of April.

The Defense Department declined to provide specifics as to remaining Patriot deliveries. A spokesperson told the Kyiv Independent that “the Defense Department continues to provide equipment to Ukraine from previously authorized PDA and USAI packages.”

EU countries that had previously shared their Patriots more generously with Ukraine have run through much of their own stockpiles and are now buying up new missiles.

Russia has at the same time radically stepped up its own ballistic missile production. While Ukraine claimed Russia was running out of Iskanders early in the war, production has rebounded to “between 40 and 50 Iskanders per month,” Andriy Yusov, a representative of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, said in December. Russia is launching more of those Iskanders as Ukraine has gotten worse at deflecting them.

The numbers reported by the Ukrainian Air Force show a major drop off in the effectiveness of air defense against ballistic missiles in recent months. They tally a total of 22 ballistic missiles fired at Ukraine throughout April, mostly Iskanders. The Air Force reported that air defenses shot down eight, seven of which were in a mass attack on Kyiv, the best-defended city in the country. That attack still saw four missiles touch down, killing 12 civilians and injuring another 87.

Other Russian attacks used Iskanders with cluster munitions to kill 20 in Kryvyi Rih on April 4 and 34 in Sumy on April 13. Another strike on Kyiv killed two and injured eight on the night of May 6. The new vulnerability is acutely felt among Ukrainians who had previously relied on stronger protections in cities far from the front.

What Ukraine has and what it needs

Ukraine is working to shield itself from the increasingly brazen Russian strikes on civilians. President Zelensky is haggling for Patriot systems with money he doesn’t have. Ukraine also cannot bootstrap a modern Patriot system or PAC-3 missiles of its own at home.

“Developing SAM (surface-to-air) systems is expensive and time-consuming,” says Michael Duitsman, a missile expert at the Middlebury Institute’s James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies.

“SAMs are a system of systems — missiles, launchers, radars, computers, software, user interfaces, etc. Each of those components needs to be developed, prototyped, and tested, and all of them must mesh together and perform reliably against hostile forces in adverse conditions. This can involve years of testing and debugging.”

Domestic Ukrainian air defense is dominated by leftover Soviet SAM missile launchers, especially S-200s and S-300s.

Post-Soviet Russia upgraded the S-300s to S-400s, which are supposedly better at shooting down ballistic missiles. But an S-500 that, as proposed, more closely resembles the newest Patriots has remained under development for years. Chief of the General Staff of Russia’s Armed Forces Valeriy Gerasimov announced the first S-500 division in December. The only known footage emerged days later.

Ukraine was already at work on an S-300 upgrade of its own called the SD-300 before the war. Per a since-removed 2021 flyer from Design Bureau Luch, the envisioned system still had a warhead, meaning it still relies on fragmentary explosions that the newest and best anti-ballistic defenses have moved away from.

The physical hardware of these anti-ballistic missiles takes years to build out. But improvements in software, particularly in algorithms predicting the trajectory of incoming ballistic attacks, would be a cheaper way of boosting S-300 effectiveness, as would more imports of advanced radar systems.

But Ukraine is also running low on ammunition for its SAMP-T and S-300 systems, as well as Patriots. The factories that would, pre-war, have been best equipped to build out more ammunition or upgrades for these S-300s find themselves prime targets for Russian air attacks.

Ukraine is, for now, trapped in a vicious cycle in which it needs air defense to protect the factories where it can build more air defense missiles of its own. They are also the same factories working on Ukraine’s own cruise and ballistic missiles — namely the Neptune and Hrim-2 — which have taken priority since the war’s outset.

Hoffmann, for one, sees domestic anti-ballistic defenses as being far out of range for Ukraine’s wartime research and development relative to other, cheaper drone and missile development.

“If the Ukrainians start investing in indigenous BMD (ballistic missile defense), I’ll eat my shoe,” said Hoffmann. “That would not be worth it from an opportunity cost perspective.”

Ukraine consequently continues to bank on the West to provide more Patriot missiles.

What makes Patriot missiles unique

There are two main species of Patriot missiles critical to Ukraine today, PAC-2s and PAC-3s.

Raytheon makes Patriot ground systems, launchers, and PAC-2 missiles, which are primarily for shooting down cruise missiles. Lockheed Martin makes the PAC-3 missiles, which are, to all appearances, the best anti-ballistic defense on the international market, particularly the newest Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) models.

The Ukrainian Air Force wrote early in April that since the start of the full-scale war, they had shot down 90 ballistic missiles and 40 Kinzhals, classified as “aeroballistics.”

Other air defense units in Ukraine include Soviet S-300s, Norwegian NASAMS, German Iris-Ts, and the French-Italian SAMP/T, the land-based system from Aster, and likely the closest competitor to the newest Patriots.

PAC-3s are uniquely designed to “hit to kill.” Traditional air defense missiles are shot into the sky to explode, sending shrapnel into adjacent incoming planes, drones, or missiles. Hit-to-kill missiles like the PAC-3 destroy their targets by physically flying into them.

A deck that Lockheed Martin provided to the Kyiv Independent touts that hit-to-kill attacks are far better at destroying not just the missile, but the explosives or even chemical charges that a missile is carrying. The company also says explosive air defense doesn’t change the flight path of ballistic missiles, leaving debris to fall more or less where it was initially heading.

In a statement, Lockheed Martin wrote to the Kyiv Independent: “PAC-3 Hit-to-kill technology encompasses advanced software and hardware components, including the seeker, a highly responsive airframe, agile control system, and guidance software. All components are necessary to achieve hit-to-kill capability.”

Without explosives, a PAC-3 is much smaller, lighter, and more maneuverable than a PAC-2. As a result, a standard Patriot launcher can fit 16 PAC-3s at once, as compared to four PAC-2s.

The precision targeting technology required for hit-to-kill is new. PAC-3s came under development when PAC-2s largely failed against Iraq’s arsenal of Soviet-made SCUD ballistic missiles in the first Gulf War. The embarrassment of those encounters prompted a new design that took a decade and a half to make operational.

To date, the U.S. is the only exporter of “hit-to-kill” technology in the world. China’s HQ-19 seems to use something similar, but public information is limited. The Chinese government announced a successful anti-ballistic test in 2022 but has remained quiet about details.

Russia, meanwhile, has the same S-300s as Ukraine as well as upgraded S-400s that Ukraine does not have. The Russian defense industry is working on the S-500 but has yet to properly field them.

Ukraine can similarly tinker with its stockpiles of S-300s, particularly with updated software and radar systems. But ammunition for those weapons is also running perilously low.

Ballistic patriotism and missile diplomacy

The PAC-3 MSEs boast two critical features. One is that they are uniquely effective at shooting down Russian ballistic missiles, as their time in Ukraine has demonstrated.

Thanks to this success, countries across Europe and the Middle East are petitioning the U.S. government to buy progressively more, with Germany getting the go-ahead for an unprecedented $5 billion purchase back in August.

The second critical feature of PAC-3s is that they are produced en masse, at a scale that is growing thanks to their performance in Ukraine and an increasing number of nations ordering them to defend themselves from ballistic missile attacks.

Lockheed Martin is planning to expand production from 500 to 650 annually. Multinational European missile maker MBDA has gotten the go-ahead to build the first manufacturing for Patriots outside of the U.S.

New production of Patriot missiles will, however, take years to build out. Largely thanks to their performance in Ukraine, a glut of new Patriot missiles should be going around in two years. Meanwhile, Ukrainian air defense remains largely dependent on foreign donations of missiles, whose supply is stretched thin worldwide.

Note from the author:

Hi there, this is Kollen, the author of this article. Thanks for reading. Ukrainians’ responses to Russia’s invasion showcase a society that is deeply resilient and inventive, despite pullbacks in aid. If you like reading stories highlighting the development of Ukraine’s wartime technology and economy from on the ground, please consider supporting our work by becoming a member of the Kyiv Independent.

Ukraine’s long-suffering aerospace giants look to Europe to break free from Russian orbit

Where the Donbas meets the Dnipro River, the USSR built out a dense range of massive factories, using the local coal and metal reserves to smelt, weld, and cast the heaviest of machinery — and weaponry — for the whole of the Soviet Union. One of these is Pivdenmash, formerly known by the Russian name, Yuzhmash, a factory that is effectively a city unto itself in the south of the city of Dnipro in central-eastern Ukraine. The great builder of the Soviet intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

May 9, 2025 7:25pm

Ukraine Russia Climate Photos USA

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Ben Borges

With the announcement that Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost has been chosen as the new pope and leader of the Catholic Church, Ukrainians are wondering what the surprise appointment of the American-born pontiff will mean for their country.

Past comments made by the new pope, who has taken the name Pope Leo XIV, quickly surfaced to form an idea of his views on immigration, gay rights, climate change, and the current U.S. administration. But with no similar public record of statements on Russia’s invasion, Ukrainians are left scrutinizing his public comments and hoping the world leader’s stance toward the ongoing war will benefit their country.

“I am not aware of any statements or actions the current pope has made regarding the war in Ukraine,” said Father Ihor Yatsiv, a spokesperson for the Greek Catholic Church in Ukraine, which falls under the Vatican’s leadership.

“So we can only operate based on who he is through his experience, his human life experience, his service, where he has been, where he comes from, and, accordingly, also after whom he comes.”

One potential sign of the pope’s future policies is in the selection of his new name, one of the first decisions a new pope makes. While Pope Leo XIV has not yet said why he selected Leo, a pontiff’s new name often refers to previous pontiffs whose footsteps they wish to follow.

Pope Leo XIII, the most recent pope to use this name, is widely remembered for his championing of social policies and social justice.

He was “a pope who paid attention to the socially vulnerable, a pope who stood on the side of the oppressed, a pope who stood for justice and, accordingly, spoke out against the powerful of this world,” noted Yatsiv.

“We identify Pope Leo XIV as a pope of hope for Ukraine,” Yatsiv added.

Many observers have noted that the selection of an American pope — long considered taboo — is likely, in part, a response to the current policies enacted by U.S. President Donald Trump and a rise in isolationism from his administration.

“Trumpism has broken many international taboos in recent months,” said Massimo Faggioli, a professor of historical theology at Villanova University. “The conclave responded in kind by breaking another taboo: that it was not possible for a Catholic from the U.S., a superpower, to become pope, in order to avoid an overlap between political-military supremacy, and the leadership of the church symbolically, at least, heir to the Roman Empire.”

In selecting Pope Leo, the cardinals who voted may have aimed to counter Trump’s policies with a different message about what U.S. exceptionalism and greatness can look like, Faggioli said.

“It remains to be seen what it means for a pope from the U.S., in the world of the crisis of liberal and constitutional democracies today, to speak as the head of the Catholic Church and the Holy See to Russia and Ukraine, to Israel and the Arab world, to China and the two Koreas,” said Faggioli.

Prior to his election as the leader of the Catholic Church, Pope Leo had boosted criticisms aimed at the anti-immigration policies of Trump and his vice president, JD Vance, on X.

In February, he reposted an article titled, "JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn't ask us to rank our love for others."

Pope Leo succeeds Pope Francis, who left behind a mixed legacy on the war in Ukraine. His repeated calls for peace often left Ukrainians frustrated by his failure to call out Russia as the aggressor or to condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin.

While this reflects the Vatican’s commitment to neutrality, allowing it to carry out a humanitarian role and negotiate prisoner exchanges, it also came under fire as being influenced by the historic ties between Moscow and the Vatican.

After it was announced that Cardinal Robert Prevost would replace him as the new church leader, President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Pope Leo XIV on social media, saying, “Ukraine deeply values the Holy See’s consistent position in upholding international law, condemning the Russian Federation’s military aggression against Ukraine, and protecting the rights of innocent civilians.”

Pope Francis leaves a mixed legacy in wartime Ukraine, overshadowed by historic Vatican-Moscow ties

Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21 at 88, leaves behind a legacy as vast and varied as his global influence. Yet in Ukraine, his track record is far from positive. For many Ukrainians, the Pope’s legacy is shaped by his repeated downplaying of the gravity of Ukraine’s fight for its survival in Russia’s war of aggression. His sweeping calls for peace over the past three years – from calling Ukrainians and Russians “brothers” to urging Ukraine to “have the courage of the white flag” in ne

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

May 9, 2025 5:54pm

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 6 minutes

Ben Borges

Amid much pomp, military machinery, and the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes, Russian President Vladimir Putin has delivered his annual speech to mark his country’s Victory Day parade.

The Kremlin’s celebrations, which mark the Soviet Union’s role in defeating Nazi Germany in World War II, are one of the country’s biggest public events of the year.

The annual event is also a key part of Putin’s propaganda efforts to justify aggression against what the Kremlin falsely portrays as “Nazis” in Ukraine.

“Putin needs this victory cult that he has created,” Andrej Lushnycky, author, historian, and president of the Ukrainian Society of Switzerland, told the Kyiv Independent.

“He needs this in order for his own people to accept the terrible conditions that they’re still living under in this authoritarian state."

The Kyiv Independent spoke to Lushnycky to get his thoughts on what Putin said during his Victory Day speech — and what he conveniently forgot to mention.

1) ‘Russian soldiers’

“Our fathers, grandfathers, and great-grandfathers saved the Fatherland… Our duty is to defend the honor of the soldiers and commanders of the Red Army, the great feat of representatives of different nationalities, who will forever remain in world history as Russian soldiers."

Putin’s attempt to conflate Russian and Soviet soldiers, and his brief nod to “different nationalities,” belies one major historical fact — at least six million Ukrainians fought in the Soviet army.

Though exact numbers are unknown, it's estimated that around 1.65 million of the Ukrainians who fought were killed, the highest number from any of the Soviet republics after Russia itself.

Then there is the stark difference between Putin's veneration of Soviet soldiers and the treatment they faced during the war.

"The truth is that hundreds of thousands of their own troops were killed by the Soviets because they defected, or they didn't have uniforms, they were turning back, or they were just shot in the back of the head," Lushnycky said.

"Human life really doesn't have any value in Russia today, nor can you really say it had value during the Soviet times. Look at the history — whether it was Chornobyl, whether it was the Holodomor, whether it was the way the soldiers were treated that fought in the Second World War."

2) The Nazi's plan

"The Nazis' plans to seize the Soviet Union were shattered by the country's truly iron unity."

Soviet and Russian histories like to start the history of World War II in 1941 when the Soviet Union was attacked by Nazi Germany.

There's a good reason they gloss over the preceding years — quite a significant part of the "Nazis' plan" involved the Soviet Union collaborating with the Nazis in order to carve up Europe between them.

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact signed days before World War II in 1939, paved the way for Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union to invade Poland 17 days apart.

The Soviet Union also fought a brutal war against Finland and occupied Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as parts of Poland and Romania in 1939-1940.

"Western armies were armies of liberation, whereas the Soviet army was just an army of occupation," Lushnycky said.

3) Nazism

"Russia has been and will be an indestructible barrier to Nazism."

The Nazis went down in history for launching the most destructive and devastating war of genocidal aggression of all time.

Russia is currently waging the most destructive and devastating genocidal war of aggression in Europe since the Nazis.

According to Lushnycky, this perverse twisting of what it means to be a Nazi is a necessary tool for Putin in order to distract the Russian people from the reality in their own country.

"It's just conjuring up these old images that the regime in Moscow needs in order to bring people together, and to have them overlook the hardships that they're enduring because of his foolhardy stewardship," Lushnycky said.

4) The role of allies

"Today, we are all united by feelings of joy and sorrow, pride and gratitude, and admiration for the generation that crushed Nazism and, at the cost of millions of lives, won freedom and peace for all of humanity."

While Putin did give a nod to the "contribution" of the "allied armies" in the defeat of Nazi Germany, his Victory Day speeches always play up the role of the Soviet Army while downplaying the size of those "contributions" from the allies.

The biggest elephant in the room is the U.S. lend-lease program, which, from 1941-45, saw Washington ship the Soviets the modern-day equivalent of $180 billion worth of arms, equipment, and food.

"Without the lend-lease of the United States — and both (Soviet leaders Josef) Stalin and later (Nikita) Khrushchev even agreed to this — that without this material assistance, the Soviets would have lost the war," Lushnycky said

5) 'Distortion of events'

"We remember the lessons of the Second World War and will never agree with the distortion of its events, with attempts to justify the executioners and slander the true victors."

See points 1-4.

‘I don’t think Putin will agree to a peace agreement ever’ — Volker on peace talks between Ukraine, Russia

Kurt Volker said that now “there is more alignment” between Ukraine and the U.S. under the Trump Administration than at the beginning of 2025.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

May 9, 2025 4:55pm

Ukraine Russia Photos USA

Reading Time: 5 minutes

Ben Borges

Kurt Volker, a former U.S. special representative for Ukraine, does not believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin will ever agree to a negotiated peace deal, he said during an open discussion on May 9 at the American University Kyiv, attended by the Kyiv Independent journalist.

The Trump administration has been attempting to bring Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table. Yet, progress has been limited. Trump’s team has pressured Kyiv to make concessions to Russia without applying visible pressure on Moscow to halt its aggression.

Volker said that now “there is more alignment” between Ukraine and the U.S. under the Trump Administration than at the beginning of 2025, when U.S. President Trump and Vice President JD Vance sharply criticized President Volodymyr Zelensky over what they described as “a lack of gratitude for U.S. support."

According to Volker, the talks between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia have shown that the latter is not willing to end the war, which is shifting the pressure point away from Kyiv to Moscow.

“I don’t think Putin will agree to a peace agreement ever,” Volker said. “I think we’ll end up with a standoff."

The diplomat also said that Putin is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire before the fall.

‘The front is noisy’ — for Ukraine’s soldiers, Russia’s Victory Day ‘ceasefire’ is yet another sham

Moscow’s self-declared truce which came into force at midnight on May 8 is not being felt on the front lines, Ukrainian soldiers have told the Kyiv Independent, reporting numerous cases of Russian military activity throughout the day. “There is no truce. There is shelling, artillery, drone and FPV (bomb) drops,” Petro Kuzyk, a battalion commander at the National Guard, said. The Kremlin announced the measure on April 28, claiming all military actions would halt on May 8 to midnight on May 11 t

The Kyiv IndependentChris York,

“He (Putin) wants to play games. He wants to see what he can get the Trump administration and the West to give him for free. He wants to try a summer offensive and see if he can grab more territory. He wants to see if his financial situation improves. So, he’s going to play this for a while,” Volker said.

Volker suggested that Putin would agree to a ceasefire later in the fall if the allies succeed in imposing tougher sanctions on Russian gas, oil, and financial transactions, the Kremlin’s financial situation worsens, and a potential summer offensive fizzles.

“And if that’s the case, I think that’s a good thing,” he said.

“Then we must work harder and faster than Russia. We must help Ukraine rebuild its military capabilities, bring people home, strengthen the economy, bring in foreign investment, and accelerate negotiations with the EU,” the diplomat added.

The discussion with Volker occurred on May 9, when Russia celebrated Victory Day, one of the biggest national events, commemorating the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The annual event is a key part of Putin’s propaganda efforts to justify its aggression against what the Kremlin falsely describes as “Nazis” in Ukraine.

Ahead of the celebrations, the Kremlin announced a 3-day ceasefire, also calling it the beginning of “direct talks” with Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha replied, saying that Kyiv is ready for talks in any format “as soon as it sees that Russia is really ready for a difficult path to peace, and not just for ‘peaceful populism’ or a short-term propaganda ceasefire for the sake of the May 9 parade."

Volker said that he does not believe in the productivity of direct talks with Russia and Ukraine, adding that they can only be effective in limited ways, such as contacts aimed at prisoner exchanges, limited ceasefires in a particular area, and refraining from attacking energy infrastructure on both sides.

“As much as it’s frustrating and worrisome for Ukrainians that it’s the U.S. doing the talking to Russia, I think it’s better than just Russia and Ukraine on their own. I think this puts a set of limits around what Russia can do,” the diplomat said.

More than 100 days have passed since the U.S. administration began efforts to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia, despite U.S. President Trump’s campaign promise to end the war in one day.

Kyiv accepted an unconditional 30-day U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal in March, but Moscow rejected it, demanding a complete end to Western military support for Ukraine.

Russia has repeatedly proclaimed its supposed readiness for peace talks while simultaneously pushing for maximalist demands. Kyiv has dismissed these declarations as a propaganda stunt, noting that Russian forces have only intensified their attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns.

Will Trump help Putin escape punishment for his crimes in Ukraine?

Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. took the unprecedented step of deepening cooperation with international courts of law. Washington has never been party to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the International Criminal Court (ICC), and U.S. policy towards the Hague-based international tribunal has varied widely under different administrations. Now, since President Donald Trump returned to office, that cooperation has stalled. Among his first actions after returning to the O

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

May 9, 2025 11:25am

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Ben Borges

A U.S. court of appeals ruled on May 7 that the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM) must release $12 million in funding previously approved by Congress for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), the media organization reported.

The ruling marks a significant victory for RFE/RL amid growing concerns about U.S. funding cuts to independent media countering Russian disinformation.

The court order compels USAGM to comply with an April 29 district court ruling and transfer the funds, which had been blocked following an order by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The money is part of broader congressional appropriations supporting RFE/RL’s operations in Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and beyond.

The media organization, established during the Cold War to challenge Soviet influence, operates as an independent media corporation funded by U.S. congressional appropriations through USAGM.

On March 15, Trump signed an executive order slashing funding to seven government agencies, including USAGM. The agency soon after issued a notice terminating a congressionally approved grant for RFE/RL, freezing around $75 million already allocated for the 2025 fiscal year.

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The freeze sparked legal action from RFE/RL. On March 25, U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth ruled in favor of the media outlet, but USAGM withheld the funds. The corporation returned to court, prompting the April 29 ruling mandating the immediate release of the funds.

That ruling was briefly suspended by a panel of appellate judges just hours before the appeals court hearing. The May 7 decision reinstates the lower court's order, forcing USAGM to release the $12 million. The agency can still appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

USAGM's interim leadership justified the funding freeze under Trump's executive order, which mandated cuts to "inefficient spending of U.S. taxpayer funds."

The move, however, has been celebrated by Russian propagandists and coincided with Trump's diplomatic outreach to Moscow as he seeks to broker a peace deal in Ukraine.

RFE/RL's broadcasts have long been a target of Kremlin ire. The outlet provides critical coverage of authoritarian governments, human rights abuses, and Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine.

‘The front is noisy’ — for Ukraine’s soldiers, Russia’s Victory Day ‘ceasefire’ is yet another sham

Moscow’s self-declared truce which came into force at midnight on May 8 is not being felt on the front lines, Ukrainian soldiers have told the Kyiv Independent, reporting numerous cases of Russian military activity throughout the day. “There is no truce. There is shelling, artillery, drone and FPV (bomb) drops,” Petro Kuzyk, a battalion commander at the National Guard, said. The Kremlin announced the measure on April 28, claiming all military actions would halt on May 8 to midnight on May 11 t

The Kyiv IndependentChris York,

May 9, 2025 6:27am

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Ben Borges

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping hailed their countries' relationship on May 8, vowing to increase cooperation in all areas, including military ties.

In a joint statement released during Xi’s visit to Moscow amid the May 9 Victory Day celebrations, the two countries promised to “strengthen coordination in order to decisively counter Washington’s course of ‘dual containment’ of Russia and China."

In a show of unity against U.S. President Donald Trump, the two countries disavowed “the promotion of hostile approaches toward Russia and China by third countries in various regions of the world, as well as the discrediting of Russian-Chinese cooperation."

The two countries also vowed to “contribute to the establishment of peace in Ukraine,” while addressing the “root causes” of the war.

The statement on the Ukraine war alludes to phrasing that Russia has regularly used to justify its full-scale invasion, falsely claiming that it was pushed into war with Ukraine over NATO’s perceived expansion.

China has strengthened ties with Russia since the Kremlin launched its full-scale war against Ukraine, becoming Moscow’s leading supplier of dual-use goods that bolster Russia’s defense industry.

While China has positioned itself as a potential mediator in the war, it has simultaneously criticized the U.S. and its allies for “exacerbating” the war by supplying weapons to Ukraine. NATO has labeled China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s aggression.

President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on April 17 that China is supplying weapons to the Russian military. His statement marks Kyiv’s first confirmation that Beijing supports Russia’s war effort by providing weapons.

Xi said earlier in the day on May 8 that he was pleased to take part in the Victory Day celebrations and that “China and Russia are ready to defend the truth about the history of World War II."

The Chinese president’s visit to Russia is expected to last until May 10. During this time, the Chinese and Russian sides will hold talks in various formats, both between the two leaders and between delegations, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

During his three and a half hour meeting with the Chinese leader, Putin expressed his willingness to pay another official visit to China and emphasized that the governments of both countries are working to fully develop their bilateral relations.

Xi’s presence in Moscow serves as an important boost to Putin amid ongoing negotiations brokered by the United States to put an end to the war in Ukraine.

While the Trump administration initially sought to overhaul relations with Russia, Trump has reportedly grown increasingly frustrated at the lack of progress being made on negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. On April 26, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be “tapping me along” in negotiations.

On May 8, U.S. Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that the U.S. would be ready to “walk away” from the negotiating table if it does not see Russia making progress in negotiation to end the war.

Turkey, China may serve as potential peace talk ‘mediator’ if US pulls out, Polish FM says

“There is Turkey, which maintains channels of communication. And then, above all, there is the People’s Republic of China, which, more than anyone else, has the means to make (Russian President Vladimir) Putin come to the negotiating table and soften his demands,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on May 8.

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

May 9, 2025 5:24am

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Ben Borges

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on May 8 that he believed either Turkey or China would serve as a capable “mediator” if the United States pulls out of negotiations to end the war.

Speaking to reporters following an EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Warsaw, Sikorski said that he hope the U.S. succeeds in “mediation efforts” between Russia and Ukraine, European Pravda reported.

“But if this path turns out to be unsuccessful, there are other candidates,” Sikorski added. “There is Turkey, which maintains channels of communication. And then, above all, there is the People’s Republic of China, which, more than anyone else, has the means to make (Russian President Vladimir) Putin come to the negotiating table and soften his demands."

Sikorski’s comments come as the United States has reportedly grown frustrated at the lack of progress being made on negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. On April 26, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be “tapping me along” in negotiations.

On May 8, U.S. Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that the U.S. would be ready to “walk away” from the negotiating table if it does not see Russia making progress in negotiation to end the war.

Turkey has positioned itself as a potential mediator in Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine by maintaining diplomatic and economic ties with both nations. Leveraging its strategic position and influence in the Black Sea region, Turkey has facilitated negotiations and grain exports, while expressing willingness to participate in ceasefire monitoring.

While China has also positioned itself as a potential mediator in the war, it has simultaneously criticized the U.S. and its allies for “exacerbating” the war by supplying weapons to Ukraine. NATO has labeled China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s aggression.

President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on April 17 that China is supplying weapons to the Russian military. His statement marks Kyiv’s first confirmation that Beijing supports Russia’s war effort by providing weapons.

Despite Vance’s comment, following a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump seemingly contradicted Vance on May 8, saying that he was “committed” to securing a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

“As President, I will stay committed to securing Peace between Russia and Ukraine, together with the Europeans, and a Lasting Peace it will be,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Hopefully, an acceptable ceasefire will be observed, and both Countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations. If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions,” Trump added.

Trump calls for ‘unconditional ceasefire,’ committed to ‘securing peace’ between Ukraine, Russia

US President Donald Trump on May 8 called for a “30-day unconditional ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia. Writing on Truth Social, Trump expressed his hope for “an acceptable ceasefire,” with both countries “held accountable for respecting the sanctity of… direct negotiations.”

The Kyiv IndependentLucy Pakhnyuk

May 9, 2025 4:35am

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Ben Borges

The United States will be ready to “walk away” from the negotiating table if it does not see Russia making progress in negotiation to end the war, U.S. Vice President JD Vance told Fox News on May 8.

“What would bother me is if we conclude that the Russians are not engaging in negotiations in good faith. And if that happen, yeah, we’re going to walk away,” Vance said in an interview.

The United States has reportedly grown frustrated at the lack of progress being made on negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. On April 26, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be “tapping me along” in negotiations.

Despite growing frustrations from the White House, Vance said that the fact that the parties are offering proposals to one another is a sign of “progress."

“We knew that Russia would ask for too much because Russia’s perspective on the ground is that they’re winning,” Vance said. “Our attitude is we don’t want Ukraine to collapse. We obviously want Ukraine to remain a sovereign country. But Russia can’t expect to be given territory they haven’t event conquered yet."

“We knew that the Russians' first offer would be too much. We knew that they would ask for more than what was reasonable to give, that’s how negotiations often work,” Vance continued.

Vance warned that Russia and Ukraine “are going to be left to settle this thing without the advise and the mediation of the United States,” if Moscow continues to stall talks.

Despite Vance’s comment, following a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump seemingly contradicted Vance, saying that he was “committed” to securing a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

“As President, I will stay committed to securing Peace between Russia and Ukraine, together with the Europeans, and a Lasting Peace it will be,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Hopefully, an acceptable ceasefire will be observed, and both Countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations. If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions,” Trump added.

U.S. government officials have reportedly prepared a new sanctions package against Russia, although Trump has yet to make a move on implementing the measures.

Trump calls for ‘unconditional ceasefire,’ committed to ‘securing peace’ between Ukraine, Russia

US President Donald Trump on May 8 called for a “30-day unconditional ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia. Writing on Truth Social, Trump expressed his hope for “an acceptable ceasefire,” with both countries “held accountable for respecting the sanctity of… direct negotiations.”

The Kyiv IndependentLucy Pakhnyuk

May 9, 2025 12:50am

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

United States President Donald Trump on May 8 called for a “30-day unconditional ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia.

Writing on Truth Social following a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump expressed his hope for “an acceptable ceasefire,” with both countries “held accountable for respecting the sanctity of… direct negotiations."

“If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions,” Trump threatened.

Separately, in a recent interview, Trump said that U.S. may consider implementing additional sanctions against Russia if it does not reach a peace deal with Ukraine. U.S. lawmakers have preemptively prepared a comprehensive sanctions bill that would impose new penalties on Russia.

“As president, I will stay committed to securing peace between Russia and Ukraine, together with the Europeans… This ceasefire must ultimately build toward a peace agreement,” Trump added, expressing his support for an end to the war.

Trump’s post follows a “constructive” phone call with Zelensky. During the call, the leaders discussed the war, diplomatic efforts, and “a real and lasting ceasefire."

Recent months have seen a series of failed peace talks and ceasefires, including one initially brokered by the U.S. in March. While Ukraine immediately agreed to the ceasefire, Russia repeated violated it.

Later, in April, Russia declared a ceasefire over the Easter holiday, though Zelensky accused Moscow of nearly 3,000 violations between April 19 and April 21.

Russia has repeatedly proclaimed its supposed readiness for peace talks while simultaneously pushing for maximalist demands. Kyiv has dismissed these declarations , noting that Russian forces have only intensified their attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns.

Majority of Ukrainians unwilling to trade territory or Western path for peace, poll shows

The survey, conducted between April 24 and May 4, shows that 56.9% of respondents would not be willing to compromise on either territorial integrity or Ukraine’s pro-Western direction in any potential talks with Moscow.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

May 8, 2025 11:50pm

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with United States President Donald Trump on a phone call on May 8 to discuss the war, continued pressure on Russia, and a potential ceasefire.

Zelensky reported on the details of phone call during his nightly address.

According to Zelensky, the two leaders had a “good conversation” that was both “warm and constructive.” They congratulated each other and their respective nations with Victory in Europe Day – commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

Zelensky commented on how the defeat of Nazism, as well as the cooperation between Allied nations, laid the foundation for peace, international law, and normal life for so many countries.

“Now, this life must be protected and restored – rebuilt from the ruins after Russian strikes. Just as before, we must work together to bring peace,” Zelensky said.

Zelensky and Trump also discussed joint actions, including US support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia. They also discussed the frontline situation, diplomatic efforts, and “a real and lasting ceasefire.”

“Ukraine is ready for a full ceasefire starting right now, from this very moment,” Zelensky said. “A ceasefire, lasting and reliable, will be a real indicator of movement toward peace."

He also noted the critical role that the United States can play in securing peace: “America can help… the world needs America now just as it did eighty years ago."

The conversation between Zelensky and Trump follows recent attempts by the US to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia.

Nearly two months ago, Ukraine accepted a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire, but Moscow rejected it, demanding a complete halt on military aid to Ukraine.

Russia has repeatedly proclaimed its supposed readiness for peace talks while simultaneously pushing for maximalist demands. Kyiv has dismissed these declarations as a propaganda stunt, noting that Russian forces have only intensified their attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns.

Ukraine war latest: Over 100 clashes reported on the front line since Russia’s Victory Day ceasefire began

Key developments on May 8: * Over 100 clashes reported on the front line since Russia’s Victory Day ceasefire began * Ukraine’s parliament ratifies minerals deal between Washington, Kyiv * Russia has damaged, destroyed over 2,300 medical infrastructure facilities since beginning of full-scale invasion, health ministry says * Russia’s ballistic missiles make

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

May 8, 2025 9:17pm

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Reading Time: 8 minutes

Ben Borges

Key developments on May 8:

• Over 100 clashes reported on the front line since Russia’s Victory Day ceasefire began
• Ukraine’s parliament ratifies minerals deal between Washington, Kyiv
• Russia has damaged, destroyed over 2,300 medical infrastructure facilities since beginning of full-scale invasion, health ministry says
• Russia’s ballistic missiles make April deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since last fall, UN reports
• Majority of Ukrainians unwilling to trade territory or Western path for peace, poll shows

Ukrainian forces faced 117 combat clashes across the front line on the first day of Russia’s self-declared Victory Day “humanitarian ceasefire,” the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on May 8.

Despite the Kremlin’s announcement of a May 8–11 truce, heavy fighting continued in multiple regions throughout the day. The General Staff said that most battles occurred in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian troops launched 41 assaults on the Pokrovsk front alone.

Pokrovsk, located about 70 kilometers northwest of occupied Donetsk, remains one of the most fiercely contested sectors of the front, where Russia has concentrated its main offensive efforts since March.

Clashes also took place near Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, and Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, while Russian troops continued attacks around Siversk, Torske, and in Kharkiv Oblast. Border settlements in Sumy Oblast suffered from shelling and guided bomb strikes.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian regional authorities reported at least seven civilian deaths and 31 injuries over the past 24 hours across Ukraine. Some of the attacks took place after the start of Moscow’s unilaterally declared truce. Russian strikes targeted homes, vehicles, and public spaces in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

The Victory Day truce is the latest in a series of ceasefire initiatives announced by Moscow, all of which Russia has violated.

Earlier this month, Russia declared a ceasefire over the Easter holiday, though President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of nearly 3,000 violations between April 19 and April 21. Ukraine has also said that Russian forces repeatedly breached a partial truce on attacks against energy facilities brokered by the U.S. on March 25.

Russia has repeatedly proclaimed its supposed readiness for peace talks while simultaneously pushing for maximalist demands. Kyiv has dismissed these declarations as a propaganda stunt, noting that Russian forces have only intensified their attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns.

‘The front is noisy’ — for Ukraine’s soldiers, Russia’s Victory Day ‘ceasefire’ is yet another sham

Moscow’s self-declared truce which came into force at midnight on May 8 is not being felt on the front lines, Ukrainian soldiers have told the Kyiv Independent, reporting numerous cases of Russian military activity throughout the day. “There is no truce. There is shelling, artillery, drone and FPV (bomb) drops,

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Ukraine’s parliament ratifies minerals deal between Washington, Kyiv

The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, ratified the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal on May 8, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak said.

The document was supported by 338 MPs.

The agreement, signed on April 30, establishes a joint investment fund between Kyiv and Washington and grants the U.S. special access to projects developing Ukraine’s natural resources.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the ratification of what he described as the most promising economic agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. to date. “This is joint investment cooperation with the U.S. for decades to come,” Zelensky said.

“I expect the ratification law to be submitted from the Verkhovna Rada to my Office soon. Once the legal procedures are complete, we will be able to begin establishing the Fund,” he wrote on X.

Following the signing of the agreement between Kyiv and Washington, the parties did not disclose details on how the Reconstruction Investment Fund will work, except that it will be managed in an equal partnership, with both sides contributing.

Earlier, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that future military aid from the U.S. could count as contributions to the fund, but previous assistance is not included.

Who’s attending Moscow’s Victory Day parade? The Kremlin has published a guest list ahead of May 9

Russia’s annual Victory Day parade is set to take place in Moscow on May 9, in a week dramtically marked by a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on the city. Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9, which mark the Soviet Union’s role in defeating Nazi Germany in World

The Kyiv IndependentNatalia Yermak

Russia has damaged, destroyed over 2,300 medical infrastructure facilities since beginning of full-scale invasion, health ministry says

Russian forces have damaged or destroyed more than 2,300 medical infrastructure facilities since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Health Ministry said on May 7.

Some 2020 medical facilities were partially damaged, while another 305 were completely destroyed, the ministry’s statement read. Medical facilities in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts were most affected.

Throughout the all-out war, one of the most destructive Russian attacks on medical facilities in terms of casualties was on the Ohmatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv.

Russian forces hit Ukraine’s largest children’s medical center on July 8, killing two adults and injuring at least 34 people, including nine children. Footage showed that the building suffered a direct hit by a Russian missile rather than being damaged by fallen debris.

The missile, fired from a plane of the 22nd Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Division, kept maneuvering and changing its flight path, indicating an intention to bypass Ukrainian air defenses and hit the medical facility, according to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU).

Apart from hospitals, outpatient clinics, and maternity hospitals, Russian troops regularly attack ambulances. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, 116 ambulances have been damaged, 274 destroyed, and 80 seized.

Ukraine and its international partners have managed to fully rebuild 700 medical facilities and partially restore 312, including critical hospitals and primary health care centers in the frontline regions.

Will Trump help Putin escape punishment for his crimes in Ukraine?

Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. took the unprecedented step of deepening cooperation with international courts of law. Washington has never been party to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the International Criminal Court (ICC), and U.S. policy towards the Hague-based international tribunal has varied widely

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Russia’s ballistic missiles make April deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since last fall, UN reports

Russia killed 209 and injured 1,146 civilians during April, making it the deadliest month and the one with the highest number of injured since September 2024, the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) reported on May 8.

At least 19 children were killed and 78 injured in April, the highest verified monthly number of child casualties since June 2022.

“One of the main reasons for the sharp rise in civilian casualties was the intensified use of ballistic missiles in major cities across the country,” Danielle Bell, head of HRMMU, said in a statement accompanying the report.

The high number of civilian casualties in April reflects a broader trend of increased harm to civilians in 2025 compared to 2024. Between January and April 2025, 664 civilians were killed and 3,425 injured, a 59% increase compared to the same period in 2024, the report read.

In April, 97% of civilian casualties were recorded in Ukraine-controlled territory. Almost half of all cases were caused by Russian missile attacks or shelling. Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, and Kharkiv suffered the most damage over the past month.

Attacks using short-range drones near the contact line accounted for 23% of civilian casualties during the month. Meanwhile, in early May, the trend of targeting large Ukrainian cities with loitering munitions also continued, according to the report.

‘Clearly, Ukraine is holding cards’ — economist on why US pressure won’t force Kyiv to concede

If Ukraine’s military resistance to Russia’s full-scale invasion stunned the world, its economic resilience in the face of a larger, better-equipped enemy is a lesser-known story of the war. A combination of rapid state expansion, prudent monetary policy, active civil society in Ukraine, and crucial external funding from

The Kyiv IndependentLiliane Bivings

Majority of Ukrainians unwilling to trade territory or Western path for peace, poll shows

The majority of Ukrainians say they are not ready to give up any territory or abandon the country’s Western course in negotiations with Russia, according to a new nationwide poll published on May 8 by the Razumkov Center, a Kyiv-based public policy think tank.

The survey, conducted between April 24 and May 4 in partnership with the Kyiv Security Forum, shows that 56.9% of respondents would not be willing to compromise on either territorial integrity or Ukraine’s pro-Western direction in any potential talks with Moscow.

Only 11.1% said they would consider ceding territory, while 14.7% would be open to changing Ukraine’s geopolitical course.

About two-thirds (66.5%) of Ukrainians believe Russia would violate any peace agreement and resume its attacks when convenient, the poll showed. Just 10.8% said they thought both sides would likely adhere to a signed peace deal.

Skepticism also prevails when it comes to specific concessions. Over half of respondents (52.3%) said Ukraine should not agree to abandon its NATO aspirations, even if it were a condition of a peace treaty. Some 81% opposed reducing the size of the country’s armed forces.

Some 60.6% of Ukrainians believe a military victory over Russia is possible. At the same time, 54.1% said they do not believe a peace agreement can be reached in the near future.

Support for Ukraine’s integration with the West also remains strong. More than half (57.2%) favor the European model of development, compared to just 0.7% who prefer a Russian-leaning model.

Note from the author:

Ukraine War Latest is put together by the Kyiv Independent news desk team, who keep you informed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. If you value our work and want to ensure we have the resources to continue, join the Kyiv Independent community.

May 8, 2025 6:19pm

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

Ukrainian forces faced 117 combat clashes across the front line on the first day of Russia’s self-declared Victory Day “humanitarian ceasefire,” the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on May 8.

Despite the Kremlin’s announcement of a May 8–11 truce, heavy fighting continued in multiple regions throughout the day. The General Staff said that most battles occurred in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian troops launched 41 assaults on the Pokrovsk front alone.

Pokrovsk, located about 70 kilometers northwest of occupied Donetsk, remains one of the most fiercely contested sectors of the front, where Russia has concentrated its main offensive efforts since March.

Clashes also took place near Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, and Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, while Russian troops continued attacks around Siversk, Torske, and in Kharkiv Oblast. Border settlements in Sumy Oblast suffered from shelling and guided bomb strikes.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian regional authorities reported at least seven civilian deaths and 31 injuries over the past 24 hours across Ukraine. Some of the attacks took place after the start of Moscow’s unilaterally declared truce. Russian strikes targeted homes, vehicles, and public spaces in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

The Victory Day truce is the latest in a series of ceasefire initiatives announced by Moscow, all of which Russia has violated.

Earlier this month, Russia declared a ceasefire over the Easter holiday, though President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of nearly 3,000 violations between April 19 and April 21. Ukraine has also said that Russian forces repeatedly breached a partial truce on attacks against energy facilities brokered by the U.S. on March 25.

Russia has repeatedly proclaimed its supposed readiness for peace talks while simultaneously pushing for maximalist demands. Kyiv has dismissed these declarations as a propaganda stunt, noting that Russian forces have only intensified their attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns.

Will Trump help Putin escape punishment for his crimes in Ukraine?

Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. took the unprecedented step of deepening cooperation with international courts of law. Washington has never been party to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the International Criminal Court (ICC), and U.S. policy towards the Hague-based international tribunal has varied widely

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

May 8, 2025 2:29pm

Ukraine Photos USA

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

Ukraine and the United States played a long game of cat and mouse, each trying to secure more favorable terms in the minerals deal.

Months of delays, disagreements, manipulations, and even a temporary suspension of aid led to a ratification of the deal by the Ukrainian legislature today.

338 out of 347 Ukrainian MPs voted in favor.

Now, only its implementation remains.

“This quick turn of events [ratification] means that we are, roughly speaking, serious and responsible. Ukraine does not renounce its commitments and demonstrates confidence and consistency in its actions,” Ivan Valiushko, an expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, explained in an interview to The Counteroffensive.

Despite lengthy negotiations and some public disagreements, Ukraine and the United States finally signed an agreement establishing a United States-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund on April 30.

Read more

May 7, 2025 5:43pm

USA

Ben Borges

Did a video authentically show President Donald Trump saying, of clashes between India and Pakistan in May 2025, "let 'em fight"? No, that's not true: The clip was authentic, but was recorded in 2019. Trump was speaking then in the context of conflict between ISIS and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The claim appeared in a May 6, 2025, post on X (archived here), which consisted of a text caption that read "...sir, what do you REALLY think about India and Pakistan?" and a video that showed Trump saying:

...they're fighting each other. I said "Why don't you let them fight? Why are we getting in the middle of it?" I said "Let 'em fight!"...

The clip can be viewed in full here:

"...sir, what do you REALLY think about India and Pakistan?" pic.twitter.com/um9xI7UWXR

-- il Donaldo Trumpo (@PapiTrumpo) May 6, 2025

In reality, that clip was recorded on January 2, 2019, and Trump was speaking about a completely different conflict - that between ISIS and the Taliban in Afghanistan:

May 6, 2025 3:17pm

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Reading Time: 14 minutes

Ben Borges

Ukrainian Alina Petrauskaite has chosen to live her life in the service of God. Although she once dreamed of having a family, a deeper calling led her to the convent to serve as a nun.

In their daily prayers, many Catholic believers worldwide pray for Ukraine, and were previously led by Pope Francis until his death last month.

Now, during the election for the new pope, Alina and her fellow nuns are intensifying their prayers so that the cardinals can choose a good pope.

"We desire the Holy Spirit to show them who it should be," she said.

The death of Pope Francis has revived discussions about the Vatican's role in the world’s most pressing conflicts. In the case of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Holy See has long walked a diplomatic tightrope, criticized for ambiguity – yet it continues to maintain dialogue with both Kyiv and Moscow.

Unlike other world powers, the Vatican offers no weapons, only moral leverage — and increasingly, it is using it to help Ukraine reclaim prisoners, deported children, and even the remains of fallen soldiers.

With protocol-breaking moments like Zelenskyy’s placement at the papal funeral, quiet signals from Moscow – such as the Kremlin’s restrained reaction to papal appeals for peace – and even a brief, symbolic meeting with Trump, the Vatican is emerging as an unlikely but important ally for Ukraine — and a rare channel of dialogue in a polarized world.

Alina is a Roman Catholic nun who belongs to the Congregation of the Little Sisters of the Immaculate Heart of Mary. It was founded in Poland in 1888 and began operating in Ukraine in 1969. She and her fellow sisters serve God and do charitable work through social, educational, and pastoral activities. They do not wear traditional monastic habits like other nuns to stay closer to other people and serve among them.

Just like priests, nuns prepare for life in a monastery, which can take several years, gradually discerning their calling. After that, the nuns have to take three vows – of purity, poverty, and obedience – pledging to dedicate themselves to God, community, and service to others.

Alina now serves in Kyiv at the Catholic Media Centre. She is the editor-in-chief of the official website of the Roman Catholic Church in Ukraine. She has commented on Pope Francis' foreign trips, meetings, and solemn services on major holidays. They also cover the activities and life of the Roman Catholic Church in Ukraine.

Ukraine is a predominantly Orthodox country where traditional Catholicism represents a small share of the population – just 1 percent. In addition, about 9 percent of the population identify as Greek Catholics, mostly in western Ukraine. Most Ukrainians belong to Orthodox churches – around 70 percent.

But Christians and non-Christians all around the world are awaiting the election of the next pope – and its geopolitical consequences. Alina says she doesn’t focus on individual candidates — she believes that the most worthy one will be chosen.

The Pope is elected during a conclave, a secret vote of cardinals in the Sistine Chapel. Only cardinals under 80 can vote, and the winning candidate has to gain a majority of two-thirds of the votes in order to be elected. After a successful conclave, white smoke comes out of the Chapel's chimney, to signal that a new pope has been chosen.

Whoever the next Pope is, there will be consequences for Ukraine, as different candidates have different views on the war.

Possible Papal Candidates:

1. Pietro Parolin: Many believe that the most likely successor to Pope Francis is his former chief advisor, the Vatican Secretary of State. Parolin recognizes Ukraine's right to self-defense, but is cautious about Western military support for fear of escalation. In 2024, he visited Kyiv, and in 2025, he supported the idea of negotiations with Russia for a just and lasting peace.

   

2. Luis Antonio Tagle: The Filipino would be the first ever Asian pope if selected. Tagle has spoken about the war mainly in a humanitarian context, without mentioning Russia.

“No gun can kill hope, the goodness of the spirit in the human person. There are so many testimonies to this… The mission to always remind the world that every conflict, every disaster has a human face…. For example, the war in Ukraine and conflicts in other countries of the world are generally presented as political, military conflicts but people are forgotten!” said Tagle in an interview.

3. Matteo Zuppi: Zuppi – who was chosen by Pope Francis to lead an initiative for peace in Ukraine – has visited Kyiv and Moscow, but has avoided condemning Russian aggression, speaking instead of suffering and the need for peace. Like Tagle, he’s known for being progressive but also cautious in their statements about Ukraine and Russia.
   

4. Peter Tarkson: Hailing from Ghana, Tarkson avoids political statements. Calls for prayer for peace and often blames world leaders for nuclear threats, but does not directly condemn Russia.

“With war, everything is lost; but with peace, there is everything to gain. The devastation of Ukraine corresponds to Russia's wobbling economy, Germany's recession & U.S.A's mounting domestic debt etc. But talk about Economic malaise skips pain their economies cause in Ukraine,” Tarkson wrote on Twitter.

5. Péter Erdő: сlose to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban - a close ally of Russia. For example the cardinal has largely avoided critisizing Orban over democratic backsliding and rule-of-law concerns, including the controversial 2021 anti-LGBT law that closely mirrors Russian legislation, and shares his cautious rhetoric on the war.
   
   Although not openly pro-Russian, he refrains from criticizing Russia and maintains a dialogue with both Russian Orthodox Church and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.

6. Pierbattista Pizzaballa: Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pizzaballa expressed concern over the war in Ukraine. In 2022, he performed a rite of consecration of Ukraine and Russia to the Immaculate Heart of Mary – a symbolic request to help the two peoples to rebuild trust, without which, according to him, peace is impossible – and called for the restoration of trust between nations.

“So that they may listen to each other again, that she may help them to rebuild relationships of trust between them, without which there will be no future," said Pizzaballa in 2022.

The conclave will begin on May 7th, and many predict it will not last long, Andrii Yurash, Ukraine's Ambassador to the Holy See, explained that there are different views in the modern church.

"I think that in this situation, it would be more logical for the Church to choose someone who can represent and be acceptable to those groups that envision and plan the future development of the Church. So, a centrist would currently seem to have the strongest prospects," Yurash said.

Today’s cardinals are divided into different groups. Some seek to continue Pope Francis' socially progressive course, others want to return to traditional forms of church life, while some centrists try to combine these approaches, he told The Counteroffensive.

Far from the cardinals’ deliberations in Rome, Alina’s journey into religious life began in Kyiv.

The monk who founded this group believed that sisters should serve in the areas where they came from. That is why Alina continues her ministry in Ukraine.It wasn’t always easy for Alina to become a nun. Alina was baptised in a Catholic church. She attended church with her family only on major holidays. But her life changed when, at age 15, her friends invited her to participate in religious classes at St Alexander Church in the centre of Kyiv.

“At that time, being closer to the church, I realized that I also wanted to be like the nuns I had seen, that I wanted to be in the church like them, and serve God more in this way,” Alina told.

Since then, she has seen the Church as a place of personal faith and a global voice in the world’s most challenging moments.

The Vatican is not involved in military conflicts and does not support any side with arms. Instead, it acts as a moral mediator in wars and conflicts.

Although Alina mentioned that the Pope’s position may not directly influence the aid level, she believes it still matters.

“It’s not just about Pope Francis — this is a long-standing Vatican policy, developed over centuries, with its justification and tradition. Pope Francis, in particular, was more of a pastor at heart than a diplomat,” Alina explained.

Pope Francis's statements have often been quite controversial among Ukrainians. His messages about fraternal nations and the importance of a truce, even with territorial concessions from Ukraine, were not universally popular.

"They are brothers, cousins. Let them come to an understanding! War is always a defeat. Peace to the whole world!" said Pope Francis, addressing the bishops, clergy and religious of the French island of Corsica in December 2024.

“Perhaps we [Ukrainians] wanted to put our words in the pope's mouth and expected the pope to say precisely that. But we see that certain things have now opened up to what the pope did. I realized one thing: Evaluating the pope's words and actions is challenging because we don't know the truth and the mechanisms,” Alina told The Counteroffensive.

Russia has systematically taken steps to develop relations with the Holy See for centuries.

“It was [Francis’] dream because no pope had ever been to Moscow, and he wanted to establish closer contacts, ” Yurash said.

After 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and launched a war in Eastern Ukraine, the Vatican found itself in a difficult diplomatic position, trying to balance condemnation of aggression with maintaining a dialogue with Moscow.

The ‘Pope for Ukraine’ initiative was created to allow people worldwide to donate funds for Ukrainians affected by the war in the country's east. In its first two years, the initiative raised around €16 million, including a personal contribution from Pope Francis.

During the full-scale invasion, a special humanitarian mission, headed by Cardinal Konrad Krajewski, was established. Ten such missions have been carried out since March 2022.

The Pope had general audiences every Wednesday and Sunday, and speeches were broadcast all over the world. In almost all of his speeches, he reminded people about the war in Ukraine, Alina explained.

" While the whole world has forgotten, the news doesn't talk about it anymore, because the bombings are not so tragic, the casualties are not so great, we are all used to the same shelling, but the Pope kept saying ‘Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine.’”

Even in his last Easter address in 2025, Francis mentioned Ukraine.

"Pope Francis, in his Urbi et Orbi [traditional Pope`s address to the ‘city and the world’] address, spoke to the world about the most painful places. He said, "We pray and call on everyone to support martyred Ukraine and to establish a just and lasting peace," Yurash told The Counteroffensive.

Pope Francis died on Monday, 21 April, as a result of a stroke and cardiac arrest. He was 88.

According to the rules, the funeral seating arrangements for world leaders are allocated alphabetically by their country's name in French, the traditional language of diplomacy in which protocols were established.

As President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy should have been seated in the third row or even further back. Instead, he was put in the front row, 11 seats away from Donald Trump, who sat to his right, and next to French President Emmanuel Macron.

The Vatican broke protocol and ensured the Ukrainian president was at the centre of attention at the ceremony. Zelenskyy was also greeted with spontaneous applause when he took his seat in St Peter's Square after a brief meeting with Trump in St Peter's Basilica.

Despite previous agreements between the two sides, this “would not have happened without coordination with the Vatican,” because everything that happens on Vatican territory must be agreed upon in advance, explained Tetiana Izhevska, a former ambassador for Ukraine to the Holy See. “This is definitely an exception to the general rule.”

The meeting lasted 15 minutes and took place in private before the farewell ceremony. Details of the conversation were not disclosed, but Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it good. “It was a very symbolic meeting that could become historic if we achieve joint results,” the Ukrainian President wrote in his Telegram channel.

As the Cardinals weigh the future direction of the Catholic Church, many believers in Ukraine carry their faith through darkness, far from the Vatican.

The Pope's position has not always been clear to all Ukrainians, but perhaps this was his strength - his choice to act not loudly but carefully, considering each life.

“It seems that Pope Francis was given to us at this time to show that the church should be merciful, simple, and close to everyone,” Alina told The Counteroffensive.

NEWS OF THE DAY:

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

RUSSIA TRIES TO INFLUENCE POLAND'S ELECTIONS: Poland is witnessing unprecedented attempts by Russia to interfere in the presidential election, according to Minister of Digital Affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski.

According to him, Moscow is using disinformation and hybrid attacks on critical infrastructure, such as water utilities, thermal power plants and government agencies, to paralyze the state. The number of cyber attacks has doubled since last year, and dozens of incidents were recorded during his speech alone.

Gawkowski believes its support for Ukraine has made it a target for Russian sabotage. Poland has already faced cyber attacks on its space agency and state media, and accuses Russia of arson and sabotage in Europe.

PRICE OF RUSSIAN OIL FALLS TO RECORD LOW: The average price of Russian Urals and ESPO crude oil fell to 3,987 rubles per barrel, more than 40 percent below the planned budget level and the lowest in two years. This collapse is due to the growth of global reserves, OPEC+'s decision to increase production, and expectations of a slowdown in the global economy. In March, oil cost more than 5,000 rubles, and in April it was 4,562 rubles.

The collapse in prices forced the Russian government to cut its energy revenue forecast by a quarter and raise the expected budget deficit for 2025. At the same time, Moscow is increasing military spending to a record 6.3 percent of GDP, which is putting more pressure on finances. Analysts believe that the Kremlin will have to raise taxes, cut social spending, or increase borrowing if it does not plan to reduce funding for the war.

LITHUANIA TO INVEST €1.1 BILLION TO PROTECT THE BORDER WITH RUSSIA, BELARUS: Lithuania plans to invest €1.1 billion to strengthen the defense of its eastern border over the next decade. The bulk of the funds - 800 million euros - will be spent on installing anti-tank mines to deter possible aggression from Russia or Belarus. The measure is aimed at blocking and slowing down a potential invasion, in particular through the strategically important Suwalki corridor.

Vilnius also announced an increase in the defense budget to 5-6 percent of GDP starting in 2026. In March, Lithuania, along with Latvia, Estonia, and Poland, announced its intention to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention, which bans anti-personnel mines, which provoked a sharp reaction from Moscow.

DOG OF WAR:

Today’s Dog of War is the cute dog Myroslava saw in the coffee shop near our office.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Myroslava

May 6, 2025 3:00pm

Ukraine Russia USA

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

In a significant move, European Union nations are positioned to ramp up their military aid to Ukraine, should President Donald Trump not successfully convince Vladimir Putin to swiftly end the conflict, according to EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius. To date, the EU and the U.S. have jointly provided Ukraine with military assistance totaling approximately €40 billion annually; however, Kubilius emphasizes the potential to utilize these funds more efficiently. This strategy could effectively double the weaponry supply to Ukraine without increasing the budget.

Kubilius highlighted a newer tool available for EU countries to assist Ukraine, suggesting that the concept of "Peace through strength" could be put into tangible practice. "Loans are strength for Ukraine!" he proclaimed, underscoring the plan.

As part of an extensive rearmament plan adopted this year, the European Commission is earmarking €150 billion in loans to ensure rapid joint procurement and production of weaponry. These financial avenues enable EU nations to invest in Ukraine's arms manufacturing or collaborate with local companies—integrating Ukraine's defense industry with Europe's.

According to a recent report by The Washington Post, a growing number of EU countries are considering investments into Ukraine's defense sector rather than direct arms shipment. This shift comes amid dwindling weapon supplies across Europe after three years of conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

In terms of tangible contributions, the European Union has already provided Kyiv with €1 billion to bolster howitzer production. Ukrainian manufacturers are rolling out both self-propelled and towed "Bohdana" howitzers, with over 85 percent of components produced domestically. By year’s end, this figure is expected to rise to 95 percent, marking a scale of local production unprecedented in Europe according to Kubilius.

May 6, 2025 1:43am

Ukraine Russia Climate Photos USA

Reading Time: 12 minutes

Ben Borges

Oil prices have slipped below $60 per barrel, adding pressure to a strained Russian economy. At the same time, China—Moscow’s largest trading partner—is locked in a high-stakes tariff war with the United States, triggered by the new U.S. administration. These converging disruptions are unlikely to leave Russia's economic footing - and by extension, its capacity to fund the war in Ukraine—unaffected.

To better understand the current landscape, we once again spoke with Vladimir Milov, former Russian Deputy Minister of Energy and a prominent critic of the Putin regime. An economist and energy expert, Milov was a close ally of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and currently serves as Vice President of the Free Russia Foundation. Our previous conversation with him took place in December 2024. In this latest interview, we revisit his earlier forecasts and examine how recent developments have altered Russia’s economic trajectory.

Question (Q): There’s increasing talk about a potential easing of economic sanctions on Russia—at least from the U.S. While a full rollback seems unlikely, some form of relief may be on the horizon. In your view, could this act as a lifeline for the Kremlin, enabling it to sustain the war effort?

Answer (A): I have written about it in much detail in a recent op-ed for The Insider - please have a look. Long story short - Trump won't be able to reverse Western sanctions policy, and European actions matter more than those of the U.S. Before the 2022 full-scale invasion, Europe was Russia's key investor and trade partner - over 67% of accumulated FDI stock came from Europe and around 50% of Russian exports went to Europe. The U.S. - 1% and 4% respectively. Russia needs markets and investment, and the U.S. won't provide that - even in better times, American investors didn't particularly like Russia.

However, Russia may get some benefits from U.S. sanctions being lifted, which will help to keep Putin's ailing economy afloat for a bit longer. Crucial thing is access to the U.S. technology which may boost the Russian military production - this assessment is shared in a brilliant recent report by the Kyiv School of Economics on the status of the Russian military industries - quite worth a read, I strongly recommend

Another problem is that Europe doesn't have anything comparable to the U.S. global sanctions enforcement mechanism - experienced agencies like the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control and Bureau of Industry and Security. If the U.S. lifts sanctions against Russia - or simply continues the crackdown on its own Government institutions like that executed by DOGE - the EU, Britain, and other Western democracies simply don't have its own institutional capacities to secure proper sanctions enforcement on a global scale, as currently provided by the U.S. There will be a major sanctions enforcement vacuum which Putin will inevitably use for his own benefit, boosting sanctions circumvention.

(Q): The U.S.-China tariff war has dominated headlines in recent weeks, signaling historic geopolitical and economic shifts. While Russia isn't directly involved, key trade partners like China are heavily impacted. Beyond oil, should we expect any spillover effects on the Russian economy?

(A): Yes, there's so much more than just oil. China's economic slowdown closed their market for many Russian products, due to which major Russian industries suffer badly. For once, China-oriented Russian coal industry is collapsing right in front of our eyes. Fisheries suffer from contraction of Chinese imports of Russian fish. Russian steelmakers face output contraction and sharply falling profits because cheap Chinese steel is flooding global markets - Chinese economic slowdown turned China from being a major importer to a net exporter of steel. And so on. Russian non-energy and non-commodity exports are down by about a quarter compared to pre-2022 levels, and are not rebounding - China doesn't allow Russia to access its market, and it won't change once Chinese economic growth slows down.

Tariff war will obviously exacerbate Chinese slowdown. The slower Chinese growth - the less market for Russian goods. Share of China in the total Russian exports is as high as a third now - we're heavily dependent on this market and its well-being.

(Q): In a recent interview, you mentioned that further declines in oil prices might actually benefit Russia more than if prices remain stagnant just below a certain threshold—an idea that might seem counterintuitive to many. Could you explain how that works?

(A): Biggest loser from the falling oil prices is not Russia, and not OPEC - its the American shale oil industry. Oil production costs in the U.S. are significantly higher than in Russia or OPEC. This means that, if global oil prices fall below $50, large part of the U.S. oil production will be wiped off the market, and prices will quickly rebound. We already saw these effects after 2014 and 2020 oil price crashes.

Russians know that, which is why they weren't too scared with Trump's threats to "radically bring down the oil prices". Their strategy is to wait out for mass extinction of the U.S. oil production under $50/bbl, and to wait for prices to rebound thereafter. Russian oil producing companies are OK under $30-40 prices - it is the state budget which will suffer, but Putin and his people believe they can last for some time under low oil prices, given that they will be rebounding later.

In these circumstances, I'd say the best scenario if the international oil prices will stay somewhere around $60. Given the sanctions-driven discounts, that means Russian oil cheaper than $50. These are the prices which will significantly hurt Russia (Russian budget is drafted under $70/bbl oil price assumption), but will prevent the collapse of the U.S. shale oil industry and further rebounding of prices. Oil at $50 or cheaper is a much worse scenario, as it will most likely mean that low oil prices will be short-lived, which will make Putin happy.

(Q): During our last conversation, there was an expectation that Russia’s central bank would raise interest rates, yet it held steady at around 21%. What factors led to that unexpected decision?

(A): After their February Board meeting, Central Bank has admitted that "consequences of further raising rates will be worse than keeping the rates steady" - meaning that it would exacerbate economic slowdown or probably lead to a recession. To avoid that, they partially sacrificed the goal of bringing down inflation - which still remains high, preventing the Central Bank from much-anticipated easing of monetary policies. At the recent March meeting of the Central Bank board, only two signals were discussed - neutral and tough (further increasing the rate).

Central Bank faces tough dilemma now - interest rate of 21% is still very high (Russia has 12th highest Central Bank rate in the world), rapidly cooling the economy, but inflation is not really receding. The root causes of inflation - heavy budgetary spending on the war, output gap created by output not catching up with demand due to Western sanctions against Russian manufacturing sector - are not going away. At the same time, Russian industrial output has zeroed out in February (0,2% year-on-year growth and 0,4% seasonally adjusted growth compared to January), and March figures may be even worse - soon we'll see the statistics. So, Central Bank has managed to rapidly cause stagnation with its tight monetary policies - risking further slipping into recession - but it failed to bring inflation under control.

(Q): Your latest FRF Think Tank report points to high inflation and near-zero output growth in Russia—classic signs of stagflation. However, some economists argue that high unemployment is a necessary component. Given that unemployment remains relatively low, does this mean Russia hasn’t yet entered stagflation, or is this just a statistical distortion due to the mass recruitment of the male population?

(A): True, Russian situation is unique. The term "stagflation" was coined in the 1960s and 1970s in the Western economies none of which experienced such a mass diversion of the workforce to the war as Russia today. If the current war is suddenly over, Russia will indeed experience high unemployment - masses of soldiers returning to civilian life won't easily find jobs.

Russia also continues to experience very high hidden unemployment - workforce which is nominally employed, but in reality is either on unpaid leave, part-time workweek, or downtime. Rosstat estimated hidden unemployment to be as high as 4,7 million people in Q4 2024, or over 6% of the total workforce. Together with official unemployment, that would make about 9% of the workforce.

These workers would have significantly eased the pressure on labor market should they have left their enterprises, but Russian labor market traditionally features low mobility (remember how people in the 1990s preferred to continue working for years at enterprises which haven't paid them salaries, instead of leaving them looking for new jobs). So, companies nominally keep the workers, but effectively don't pay them - hoping for recovery, which is not coming (nearly three quarters of hidden unemployment are people on unpaid leave).

So, if we're into a macroeconomic debate by the book here, Russia does have high unemployment - but in hidden or delayed forms. And stagflation is real. If the current situation lingers on, even nominal unemployment will rise quite soon.

(Q): What is the current situation with Russia's National Wealth Fund — the main financial reserve that has supported Putin's economy through years of war? What are the implications for the Kremlin and the ongoing war?

(A): As of April 1st, the liquidity portion of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) stood at $39 billion, or just over RUR 3 trillion. That's lower than the federal budget deficit recorded in 2024 (RUR 3,5 trillion). As it goes, 2025 budget deficit will likely be much higher - costs are rising (over 20% federal expenditure growth in Q1 2025), while revenues will be depressed by both the falling oil prices, as well as economic slowdown. Already now, non-oil revenue in Q1 2025 grew only by 11% year-on-year, against 26% growth in 2024, and 18% planned growth for 2025. Of which VAT - by just 9%, as opposed to 22% in 2024 and 17% planned for 2025. Slowing economy generates less taxes, which will undermine budget revenues to an extent not lesser than falling oil prices, and lead to further depletion of the NWF. As it looks from today, there's no other way but for the liquidity portion of the NWF to be fully depleted by the end of 2025 (usually they draw the funds from NWF in December to close the fiscal year).

There's also a non-liquidity portion of the NWF, but it largely exists only on paper, with money invested in various securities and not being easily recoverable. For those interested in details, I have analyzed this in my February brief on the Russian economy. The liquidity portion of the NWF has shrank from $116,5 billion in February 2022 to just $39 billion now as a result of heavy war-related spending. Essentially, this was the model of much-praised Putin's "economic resilience": heavily draw the available cash reserves to compensate for the negative effects of sanctions. But this "economic miracle" appears to be over, disappearing along with cash being spent.

What next after the liquidity part of the NWF is fully spent? I also analyze this in one of my recent reports in detail. Bottom line: nothing is working except monetary emission, printing the money. Government can't borrow - they are cut off from international financial markets, and domestically, with yields as high as over 16% for OFZ government bonds, Russia spends more on repaying and servicing the debt than it actually raises from the domestic debt market. Net debt raising was just around zero in 2024 and negative in Q1 2025. They can raise taxes, but that would further undermine economic growth and curb tax base - they'll lose more in the end. Hypothetically, they can try to privatize state assets, but there's not really much to sell if they don't opt to privatize control equity shares in major state companies - and they don't seem to even consider that for strategic reasons. As far as smaller-scale privatization is concerned, it won't solve their fiscal problems on a large scale, and there won't be much demand given the rapid deterioration of investment climate, ongoing rampant nationalization, etc.

So printing the money seems to be the only viable option left. Russian authorities seem to increasingly tolerate high inflation - "we're not Turkey or Argentina yet, so what difference does it make if inflation is 12-13% instead of 10% - let's print a couple of trillion rubles, no one will notice" (that was literally said by some State Duma deputies during Nabiullina's report debate on April 9th). Central Bank clearly shifted to limited emission schemes in the past few months through repo auctions - banks buy government bonds, and are immediately allowed to use them as collateral while borrowing cash from the Central Bank through repo auctions. Central Bank promised to use repo auctions as temporary mechanism in November 2024, but keeps rolling them over - switching from monthly to weekly repo auctions. Effectively, it is little different from Central Bank's credit to the government, or, in simple words, printing the money.

No question that filling the budgetary gap with printed money will lead to even higher inflation, which will destroy any prospect for economic recovery. So, basically, the Western sanctions are working - albeit not as fast as we hoped, but still.

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May 3, 2025 6:30pm

Ukraine Russia USA

Ben Borges

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has turned down Russian leader Vladimir Putin's proposal for a three-day "ceasefire" on May 9, advocating instead for a 30-day cessation of hostilities. According to Ukrinform, Zelensky made this clear during a press briefing, emphasizing his reluctance to engage in "short-term ceasefires" suggested by Putin. He argued that a 30-day model is the most viable as it is impractical to negotiate within just a few days.

The Ukrainian President clarified, "Ukraine cannot ensure the security of world leaders in Moscow on May 9." Zelensky also aligned his stance with former President Trump, stating, "I agree with Trump that a 30-day ceasefire with Russia is the right first step." He underscored the necessity of rapidly addressing monitoring issues should a month-long ceasefire be agreed upon.

Zelensky elaborated, "If there's a decision for a month, no active war for that month, there will be violations, 100%... But (overall) the scale of war we have now, of course, won't happen. And everyone understands that monitoring issues must be settled quickly. The top issue is a ceasefire, followed by an assessment of the overall trajectory of ending the war," he concluded.

May 3, 2025 4:00pm

Ukraine USA

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

The U.S. has announced plans to sell F-16 fighter jet equipment and services to Ukraine. The State Department-approved package includes potential transfer of the jets themselves, upgrades and refurbishments, training for Ukrainian military personnel, provision of spare parts, maintenance equipment, software, technical documentation, and other logistical support.

According to U.S. officials, this package is designed to bolster Ukraine's defenses against current and future threats. It aims to enhance the training of Ukrainian pilots and facilitate cooperation between Ukraine's armed forces and those of the United States. Despite this assistance, Washington believes that the transfer of these jets will not alter the overall military balance in the region.

The notification regarding the planned sale was submitted to the U.S. Congress on May 2, 2025. The deal is valued at $310.5 million and will be executed through the Foreign Military Sales government-to-government program.

This announcement marks the first significant U.S. arms supply to Ukraine following Donald Trump’s election as President. It remains unclear how this package will be financed, although it's possible the funds could come from previously approved aid during the Biden administration.

Additionally, on April 30, it was revealed that the Trump administration authorized the export of $50 million in defense goods to Ukraine under a direct commercial sales arrangement—meaning the sale is made directly from the manufacturer.

The transfer of F-16 jets is being coordinated by the U.S. and NATO countries. The decision was made in 2023 when a coalition of 15 nations led by the Netherlands and Denmark was formed. Ukrainian pilot training is taking place in these countries as well as in the U.S., Norway, and Romania.

Ukraine is set to receive a total of 85 upgraded aircraft: 24 from the Netherlands, 19 from Denmark, 30 from Belgium (beginning in 2026), and 12 operational with 10 additional jets for spare parts from Norway. By the end of 2024, 20 jets will have been delivered, and up to 35 more are expected in 2025. Reports have already emerged of two Ukrainian F-16s being lost. Moreover, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with six decommissioned F-16 ADFs for spare parts.